For one, I think that if he takes the deal, reported to be worth $27.5 million, to move to an inferior program in a smaller setting with nowhere near the recruiting base, it will mean that he cares more about money than he does football. And we all know Les Miles is far too stupid to have his priorities in order.
Still, given all of that, Arkansas seems like a weird chip to use merely as a contract renegotiation ploy. Plus there's still the matter of what the hell was going on behind the scenes when Les freaked out after the Ole Miss game. It's possible that something's up. But I still don't see Miles bolting for Arkansas as very plausible.