Monday, November 29, 2004

Mexed Missages

A week after reading that some neo-cons are now advocating pulling out of Iraq sooner than later, I see that we're now ordering up another 10,000 troops in time to provide security for the "election." Here's the John Mclaughlin style exit question. How soon after the election will the supposed withdrawl begin? One month? One year? Two years? Longer? I ask you, Mor-ton.

Because Rudolph Wants Something to Read

Here is one of my heroes, Thomas Frank (latest book here), doing what he does best attacking the pseudo-liberal elitism that has married the Democratic party to corporate interests and its resultant betrayal of progressivism. Frank's main target here is a new book called The Great Divide: Retro vs Metro America which, according to Frank, is the latest go at perpetuating "two of the worst big ideas of recent years -- the new economy fantasy of the 1990's and the red/blue thesis of the last few years" which prevents our political debate from focusing on the more immediate problem of material class conflict. This is very much on target. Go check it out.

Will the last person to leave the internet please turn off the lights?

First Daisy gets forced into hiding and now this. You guys make me so sad it actually bores me.

Saturday, November 27, 2004

Pepsi Spice

Yes I am just enabling this kind of behavior by linking to it. But you have to admit it is festive and holiday-ish. Be sure to check out the blog.

Fat Guys

Really, this is obscene.

Wednesday, November 24, 2004

When you clean out the hive, does it make you want to cry?

My family moved into our house in Gentilly in early 1989. When we bought the house, its floor plan was similar to several houses in that block where the actual living space was on the second floor above a ground level garage and "basement." Over the next year, my dad and a friend of his and I doubled the living area by adding in the basement a bedroom, bath, and a second living room complete with a small wet bar and a fireplace. This house will always be home to me. I lived there throughout my high school and college years. (I went to LSU in Baton Rouge where I stayed in a dorm. This does not qualify as moving out.) While we were there, most of the neighborhood kids learned to play basketball in our driveway. My brother learned to play guitar there and once I moved out he turned my bedroom into a makeshift recording studio. We buried two dogs in the backyard.
This weekend, my dad and I moved all of our family's collected crap out of that house and crammed it into a one bedroom apartment in Mid-City which is already suffering from the strain of the load. Clearing out your childhood home is an unreal experience. Out of the attic came box after box of yellowed photos, report cards, first halloween costumes, Mardi Gras beads, and lots and lots of rat shit.
Among the recovered treasure:

1 Empty bottle whose label indicates that it once contained K&B brand Vodka.

1 Sports Illustrated Superstar Baseball Game with a notebook full of meticulously compiled statistics from hours of play.
1 Entire set of Times-Picayune Monday sports pages during the 1991 Saints division championship season.
1 Edwards for Governor '83 poster.
1 New Orleans Jazz pennant.
1 Poster of former Saints running back (now broadcaster) Hokie Gajan.

Countless ghosts and memories and whatnot. I'm tearing up right now. Talk amongst yourselves.

'Bout time somebody said it

Sure, it was wrong for Artest to run into the stands, and wrong for Jackson to run in after him throwing haymakers, and wrong for the fans to douse the Indiana players with beer. But when a crazy basketball player charges into the stands and tries to pounce on some drunk jerks, I don't fly into a rage on behalf of the nation's children. Nope, I just kick back and enjoy the spectacle.


Late night trite navel gazing


You are a XSIG--Expressive Sentimental Intellectual Giver. This makes you a Teddy Bear.

Hee! I just want to give you a big squeeze. You are tender, honest, generous and fair. You are an excellent kisser and a sensitive, communicative lover, and you know it. You would never intentionally hurt someone's feelings or overstep his/her boundaries. You have beautiful eyes.

Most people take your laid-back attitude, blazing wit and subtle sexiness and stick you in "friend." But some see your extreme hotness for what it is and latch on. This means you have a few members of your target sex in the bank at all times -- I call this "money in the sex bank" -- but you're too sensitive and thoughtful to exploit them. More than once.

You are so rational and deliberate in an argument that it can frustrate and exhaust your partner. Your fights can take forever, but your press on with them until they are completely resolved and both you and your partner are satisfied. If your partner is weak of will, s/he may just give in -- be wary of this! An emotional or passive-aggressive outburst later will hurt and horrify you.

It is *critically important* that you are able to respect your partner. The moment you lose respect for him/her, you lose everything.

When you make friends, you make them for life -- you can go without speaking to a friend for years and pick up right where you left off. You are completely faithful, both physically and emotionally. You are the second best (to XPIG) parent of any type.

If you are male, you have a huge shlong. Just saying.

Of the 158521 people who have taken this quiz, 8 % are this type.

You can take the quiz too but don't get mad at me. Blame Naked Furniture

Monday, November 22, 2004

That photo

Jackson Square at some ungodly hour. Incidentally, this is the corner where I was unjustly ticketed by one of New Orleans' finest wasters of my time not two weeks ago. Posted by Hello

Hey, r has one of those take a picture with your telephone and e-mail it to people dealies

Now let's see if I can steal Sprint's bandwidth and link to the photo.

Update: Guess not. Weird though since it shows up fine in the preview.

Hey check it out I hit 10,000 visitors

It's about freaking time, you losers! Actually I love you all. Really. Especially the people looking for Barry Bonds homerun balls. You guys are the best. Sorry but there will be no Monday Sports Page today. (Tigers won. Saints lost. No, I didn't go) I've had quite a busy time of it this weekend. My father has finally sold my childhood home and I have spent all of the last three days helping him haul truckloads of unbelievable tear-jerking memories across town. This is grim work indeed. Add to this some rather intriguing work related drama which I can't talk about until I figure out a way to do so without inadvertently arousing the attention of the hyper-sensitive or that of the clueless or that of the just plain evil.. who all may be reading right now. Hello. Add to that the fact that my ceiling is leaking again just in time for Thanksgiving. Slumlord and lackey have promised to fix this before "the holiday." I hope they meant this one. Add to that the stress of the as yet to begin preparations for this holiday and, well, I've kind of got my hands full. As a result of the chaos.. and in honor of this 10,000 visit milestone, I am pleased to present the first official Lib Chron rerun. Tonight's repeat takes us all the way back to November 11, 2003 when I, very much in the spirit of the holiday, linked to this article by James Loewen on the Thanksgiving origin myth and also reccomended one of his books. Every bit as good a read this year as last.

Thursday, November 18, 2004

Another Failed Bush Policy Move

President pardons turkeys. Inadvertantly consigns them to fate worse than death.
Real turkeys, Friedrich points out, can fly as fast as 50 mph, run nearly as fast as an Olympic sprinter and live longer than most dogs. Commercially raised turkeys, he says, are genetically altered to grow so fast and so big that none of them can fly, or reproduce without artificial insemination, and they can barely stagger about the barnyard without keeling over from a heart attack. If not plucked for Thanksgiving or Christmas, they often die within two years.
via Political Wire

Programming Note

Legendary New Orleans prog-punk act Testaverde is slated to appear Friday at the Mermaid Lounge. All the cool kids are encouraged to attend.

Shameless Self Promoting Former Democratic Heads of Ticket Continue to Shamelessly Promote Selves

Clinton Dedicates Clinton Library

Kerry sat on $15 million in campaign funds for possible 2008 run.

Actually the Clinton Library is kind of a neat deal. Here is the official site. You will have to make your own decision about its architectural merits although I tend to sympathise with this observation.
The two-story library's glass-and-steel extension over the Arkansas River illustrates a familiar Clinton theme, a "bridge to the 21st century." But Britain's Economist magazine compared the building to a glorified house trailer -- which prompted a chuckle from Clinton.

Wednesday, November 17, 2004

We Have a Winner

NYPress's Wimblehack, the jewel of the 2004 campaign season, names Elisabeth Bumiller its champion. A snippet:
All campaign journalists fall into the habit of writing long personality pieces about the "man-behind-the-man" figures they spend so much time with on the campaign. In the last two years there were probably 10 times more profiles of Stephanie Cutter and Ken Mehlman and Karl Rove and Karen Hughes and Joe Trippi and Chris Lehane and Ralph Reed than there were of laid-off workers, prisoners, illegal immigrants, the uninsured or any of the other mysterious categories of depressing individuals ostensibly involved in the election.

Obviously, this was a crime in itself of sorts, as the campaign press focused a lot more on the optimistic, self-justifying soap opera of the campaign itself than on the country's actual problems. The campaign press was consistently far more fascinated with the drama and the trimmings of power than it was with, say, nuclear safety, or how people who collect AFDC checks live. That's why the only time you saw a profile of a "working-class Catholic girl" was when it was Karen Tumulty writing about Mary Beth Cahill, the "miracle worker" who brought back John Kerry's campaign from the dead.

Now, if you're like me, you probably don't give a shit about the fact that Mary Beth Cahill honed her political reflexes at her working-class Boston dinner table, where she was the bossy older sister in a family with six children. But if you think that's irrelevant, try giving a shit about the inner life of the presidential tailor, Georges de Paris, whom Bumiller amazingly profiled just a week after the election, when half of the population was still trying to talk itself down from the ledge in the wake of the horrifying result.

Tuesday, November 16, 2004

The final word on Powell

Belongs, I think, to Rude Pundit whose.. um... idiom allows him to achieve a certain admirable clarity.
via oyster

Site of the Week

No competition.

News junkies and chronic blog readers who aren't quite RSS geeks yet, take note. The Daou Report is here.

From the site's FAQ:
The Daou Report tracks blogs, message boards, online magazines, and independent websites from across the political spectrum - providing a quick overview of the latest news, views, and online buzz.

'Nuff said.
via TPM

Day not ending well

30 minutes to go and Daisy is currently being harangued by the meanest rudest most ignorant person in the world who, flanked by a swarm of unruly children, is trying to obtain a "liberry card" for a child who she has taught to mumble the word "drawing" in such a fashion that it sounds like "drum." This same child (nine years old) 1)does not know his middle name. 2)wants to check out a book but when asked, "would you like to check that out?" looks at you like you just said "These grits remind of a time when things were decidedly less orange n'est ce pas?"
Meanwhile I answer the phone and a guy asks.
"This the liberry?"
"I got the wrong number"
Man immediately begins dialing the presumed correct number without hanging up.
Meanwhile I've got one of those patrons who insists on watching you check in the stuff he just returned because he doesn't trust you.
Meanwhile I am starting to get a headache. It is definitely time to go.

Update: Daisy, having the advantage of not trying to blog these events as they happened, provides a much more coherent description in a rather long post here.

Just In

Bush reverses his field and nominates Mini-Condi for Sec of State. No comment from Dr. Evil.

More Condi

From Slate's Fred Kaplan
The good news: Rice is among Bush's closest advisers, so foreign leaders will at least know that her words reflect the views of the president. Her appointment may also provide, at least in the short term, a morale boost among foreign service officers—a note of compensation for the departure of their cherished Powell that the State Department is now run by someone who has the president's ear and trust.

The bad news: In her four years as national security adviser, Rice has displayed no imagination as a foreign-policy thinker. She was terrible—one of the worst national security advisers ever—as a coordinator of policy advice. And to the extent she found herself engaged in bureaucratic warfare, she was almost always outgunned by Vice President Dick Cheney or Rumsfeld. Last year, for instance, the White House issued a directive putting her in charge of policy on Iraqi reconstruction; the directive was ignored. If Rumsfeld and his E-Ring gang survive the Cabinet shake-up, Rice may wind up every bit as flummoxed as her predecessor.

From the WaPo

Moreover, in elevating Rice, Bush is signaling that he is comfortable with the direction of the past four years and sees little need to dramatically shift course. Powell has had conversations for six months with Bush about the need for a "new team" in foreign policy, a senior State Department official said. But in the end only the key official who did not mesh well with the others -- Powell -- is leaving.

"My impression is that the president broadly believes his direction is correct," said former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.).

Rice sometimes backed Powell in his confrontations with Cheney and Rumsfeld, but more often than not she allowed the vice president and the defense secretary to have enormous influence over key diplomatic issues. More to the point, she is deeply familiar with the president's thinking on foreign policy -- and can be expected to ride herd on a State Department bureaucracy that some conservatives have viewed as openly hostile to the president's policies. The departures of Powell and his deputy, Richard L. Armitage, could trigger a wholesale reshuffling of top State Department officials.

"Condi knows what the president wants to accomplish and agrees with it," said Gary Schmitt, director of the Project for the New American Century, a think tank that frequently reflects the views of hard-liners in the administration. "One of Powell's weaknesses is that even when he signed on to the president's policy, he was not effective in managing the building to follow the policy as well."

Links via Cursor
The feeling here is that if you guessed that the W II administration could end up being less hard-line than W I, you should probably guess again.

More Bush Aide Resignations

Safire out at NYT




Chris Rose spends game day with Jim and Hokie.


Juan Cole has some glance-worthy things to say about the transition at the State dpt. including
Rice seems to me to have two major drawbacks as Secretary of State beyond her inability to challenge Bush's pet projects. One is that she is an old Soviet hand who still thinks in Cold War terms. She focuses on states and does not understand the threat of al-Qaeda, nor does she understand or empathize with Middle Easterners, about whom she appears to know nothing after all this time. The other drawback is that she is virtually a cheerleader for Ariel Sharon and will not be an honest broker between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Powell was much more fair on such issues, though he wasn't exactly pro-Palestinian either. Of course, with Elliot Abrams as the national security council staffer in charge of Arab-Israeli things, you might as well have Sharon just run US Middle East policy himself.

Monday, November 15, 2004

Late Monday Sports Page

Bad Photo Edition:

It's been a busy work day. Here's the best I can do for you now. I may be back this evening. If not, you know where to find me tomorrow.

Bad T-P Photo 1

This was the most fun moment of yesterday's Saints game. Joe Horn, after scoring, performed a pantomime in which he read the word "Saints" on the goal post (Joe has obviously learned a thing or two from literacy advocate Aaron Brooks) and then, obviously pleased with what he read there, gave it a big hug. The photo doesn't do the moment justice.

Bad T-P Photo 2

The reason this is a poor photographic representation of Saturday's LSU-Alabama tilt is that it is not a picture of Corey Webster getting away with blatant pass interference in the endzone on the game's pivotal play. No, I'm not complaining.

Update: Ricky's comment here reminds me that I neglected to include in this space the obligatory reminder that I was sadly unable to attend yet another Saints home game. I regret the error.

Saturday, November 13, 2004

Meanwhile this continues to happen

Really I don't know what to say. It's just so ridiculous. And yet here we are again. For the third time, no less.

So how about that election fraud

The latest Cursor Derelection page has many interesting links including perhaps the most relevant but largely ignored point,
The question is not "was the election stolen?" but "was it secure"? In this post 911 world, we can easily make the distinction between "nothing went wrong, today" and "something could go wrong". What we will find, regardless of whether there is a way to make it add up to enough votes to swing the results, is to prove that there are pervasive irregularities in the balloting system, that these pervasive irregularities favor the Republican Party consistently, and that the "solutions" proposed often make the situation worse not better.

Given that there were so many irregularities in the conduct and tallying of this election, why was Kerry, whose theme campaign theme song was "No Surrender" so quick to concede? Why has there not been a louder call for investigation? Here is an interesting stab at an answer. The argument is basically that it makes more sense strategically to call the results into question after the Fallujah assault has run through the news cycle. I don't know if I agree entirely but it does make compelling reading.

Note: Had to edit this three times today in order to weed out grammar and spelling errors. What the hell is wrong with me?

Thursday, November 11, 2004

Off to a blazing start

We've been open less than five minutes and already, I've been confronted with a patron doing her absent son's homework for him. This does not bode well.

Wednesday, November 10, 2004

Fun with maps

Since it came up, I'm linking to these pictorial representations of the very narrow numeric gap between "red" and "blue" voters which everyone has likely seen by now. It makes us proud urbanites feel a little less alone, I guess.

Boston: Still under construction

The grandest civil engineering project of our lifetime is now the grandest repair job of our lifetime. Somebody call the little dutch boy brigade.

Eagle soars

Ashcroft out.

Nipples, be free.

Monday, November 08, 2004

Print Broadcasting for the Diversity People

More actual things that actually happen at the actual library. Miss Daisy explains.

Smoking 'em out of their... hospitals

Before American jets began their bombing on Monday morning, American troops in front of the hospital took intense fire from small arms and rocket-propelled grenades from insurgents across the river. American Bradleys and tanks began returning fire.

In Washington, Pentagon officials said Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld and Gen. Richard B. Myers, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, were monitoring the preparations and updated combat reports.

Most civilians in Falluja, a city of about 250,000 people 35 miles west of Baghdad, were believed to have left by the time the invasion began.

It was the second time in six months that a battle had raged in Falluja. In April, American troops were closing in on the city center when popular uprisings broke out in cities across Iraq. The outrage, fed by mostly unconfirmed reports of large civilian casualties, forced the Americans to withdraw.

American commanders regarded the reports as inflated, but it was impossible to determine independently how many civilians had been killed. The hospital was selected as an early target because the American military believed that it was the source of rumors about heavy casualties.

"It's a center of propaganda," a senior American officer said Sunday.

link via cursor

But I thought we voted against all this science crap

OSLO, Norway (Reuters) -- Global warming is heating the Arctic almost twice as fast as the rest of the planet in a thaw that threatens millions of livelihoods and could wipe out polar bears by 2100, an eight-nation report said on Monday.

Monday Morning Sports Page

"Now that's just what you call having your head up your ass there."
These were the words of Saints radio analyst Hokie Gajan after the Saints allowed San Diego's Antonio Gates to score his third touchdown of the day in the Chargers' 43-17 drubbing of New Orleans. Hokie's description is a more than adequate summary of the day and, for that matter, this entire season for the Saints. The outcome of this one was never in doubt. On the Saints' opening possession, literacy advocate Aaron Brooks cannily attempted to implement an unorthodox strategy which involved passing the football backwards to a lineman. Brooks gets high marks for creative thinking here. Certainly the Chargers' defense would not be in position to protect that part of the field, nor would they have attempted to account for the sneakily dangerous Wayne Gandy as a receiver. As good as this play looks on paper, things nonetheless went slightly amiss in the execution and.. um hilarity ensued. On the Chargers' next possession they demonstrated the proper way to use linemen as ball carriers when a guard picked up a Ladanian Tomlinson fumble and gained an extra ten yards before being corralled by the Saints'.. um... defense. At this point, I called Dad to make sure he was aware we were witnessing the makings of a classic.

Too much champagne at Tom Benson's wedding? Maybe Haslett should have slept through this one.

What the hell is up with the sudden wink wink relaxation of the rules governing NFL jersey numbers. Here are Detroit's Roy Williams and Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald.

Shouldn't the NFL uniform gestapo have these guys in 80s by now? What is going on here?

Final athletic competition note: This weekend, I lost an inadvertent gumbo cookoff to Dad. The weather has finally turned cool around here, and we each had the idea to throw together our own pot of chicken and andouille gumbo. While Dad refuses to use any cayenne pepper in his, forcing samplers to drown their serving in Tobasco, he still came out on top due to the fact that I didn't buy enough okra and could not achieve the appropriate thickness. Also Dad has a gas stove and a really big cast iron pot which gives him an unfair advantage. Not to mention that I have a preternatural ability to fuck up rice. Since Dad has only himself and my brother to feed, and I have only Consuela, and since we each cooked enough gumbo to cater Green Bay Packers' team meal there's going to be plenty left over. Anybody hungry?

Sunday, November 07, 2004

I see a movie deal here

What do you say, Disney?
It might not seem unusual or newsworthy that I'm watching a game of football in Latin America. Here in the small town of Flores in the tropical north of Guatemala, close to the border with Mexico, they are as crazy about the sport as anywhere else on the continent, especially now that their national team is doing well in the World Cup qualifying competition.

What makes this game particularly unusual is that it's between two women teams. And more unusually than that, it's between two teams of prostitutes.
You may, if you are so inclined, insert your own crass "________ it like Beckham" joke here.
Actually, though, this is pretty serious.
Above and beyond this, the All-Stars are also seeking to draw attention to a much more serious problem affecting Guatemala at the moment - the number of women who are brutally murdered.

So far this year, as many as 50 women a month have been killed, and many of them have been prostitutes.

Since 2001, more than 1,300 women have been killed in Guatemala.

The situation has become so bad that the Organisation of American States (OAS) recently sent a special envoy to Guatemala City to investigate the problem and make recommendations to the government
Read on here.
And here
And here
And here

Thursday, November 04, 2004

Yes.. yes this exactly

Still pissed today. Read this.
Let's get one thing straight: if you voted for Bush, I think you're an idiot. I don't care if you're my best friend or my worst enemy, if I've known you two days or twenty years. If you voted for Bush, I will henceforth struggle to find respect for you and your beliefs, because I think you're an idiot.

Revenge of the Fucknuts

Well, America, you did it. It’s obviously some sort of problem with me because I didn’t think you would. But I misunderestimated you again and you sure as shit showed me. And hey, I get it. Point taken. I now see that you knew exactly what was at stake. You knew that you and perhaps your children or people you know and their children could soon become cannon fodder for God knows how long a series of immoral bloody wars of conquest. You knew that your job and your right to affordable health care and quality education were at risk. You knew that the future of Social Security was at stake. You knew that the quality of the air you breathe and the water you drink could be seriously endangered. You knew that your right to say or write what you want or to associate with whom you wish without having to answer for those things to an ever more intrusive government were seriously in jeopardy. You knew all of these things. But what you wanted us all to know last night was that as scary as all that other stuff may be, it’s nowhere near as important to you as is the degree to which you really really hate fags. Well congratulations your message has been received. While it may seem prudent for you to be thinking about the future of your own life, your fellow citizens, your security, your very freedom you were busy thinking about other people’s genetalia. And all I can say today is, yup that’s about right. This is America, remember? How could I have not known?
Really, I am kicking myself over this. The gay marriage issue was on the radar screen all year long. It was even on the ballot in eleven states. Yet since it wasn’t in the news cycle in the final weeks leading up to the election, I stupidly discounted it as the deal breaker it turned out to be. It was really a total shock to read the exit polls and find that all of sudden it is 1988 again and a huge block of the electorate lists “moral standards” as the number one issue in the campaign. What’s worse is that I allowed myself to get sucked right along with the rest of the doe eyed na├»ve gee-whiz do-gooders pedaling the youth vote and first time registered voter crap. A staggering failure of good judgment on my part following a crowd of airheads on an obviously flawed idea. It’s not just that I believed new or young voters would buck a rock solid trend and actually turn out in record numbers, it’s that I pretty much decided that Kerry would win based mostly on that fact. This sentence should contain the words “me” and “stupid” I don’t care how I get them in there.
Over the next four years, if we do not end up getting ourselves all blown to bits, there is going to have to be a serious push from progressives to take the Democratic party away from the DLC and the corporate whores who nominate wormy dissembling appeasers like John Kerry. If we’re ever going to beat back the fascists we have to have the guts to nominate someone who is willing to fight. I really didn’t want to be here today telling you I told you so, but goddammit I told you so. Purging the party won’t be easy. Already there is talk about how we lost because we weren’t quite wishy washy enough.
As a once again failed prognosticator, all I can say in my defense is that wishful thinking is a powerful thing when you know how important it is that your wish comes true. I have my weaknesses. Even I get stupidly giddy optimistic sometimes just enough to forget who I’m dealing with. I can’t say it won’t happen again. Like so many shell-shocked others, I’m sure it won’t be very long before I can find the confidence to be that stupid again. I believe it was that revered American man of letters John Cougar Mellancamp who said, I fight authority. Authority always wins. America, you have once again put me in my place, you lunkheads. I bow to your inestimable ignorance and utter lack of shame. Have fun with that whole blowing up the world thing.

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Less Optimistically

Buzzflash has Gore Vidal who weighs in with this.
John Kerry will win it. Oh, but put the question the other way around, because Americans never vote for anybody -- whom will they vote against? They will vote against Bush, which means Kerry will be elected by the popular vote. The problem is that Kerry may never be allowed to be president. All of the plots that were in line during the 2000 election are still there, from the purge list of supposed felons to computer touch screen voting and so on. There could be a series of lawsuits going on for 10 years after this election, during which time they will probably declare martial law and we’ll just all try to get along together, and we’ll keep everybody in office the way they are.

Looking Good, Feeling Good

Zogby calls it Kerry. Sit tight, folks. Long night ahead.

Raindrops and Static

It's comming down pretty hard right about now. I hope we got enough people out earlier. Early exit poll numbers are showing up at Kos and at Slate (and predictably crashing their servers). What I saw earlier was Bush 57-42 in LA. Not pretty, especially if it means coattails for Vitter.

Check out the big brain on Oyster

The man is running the streets playing election day superhero stamping out injustice wherever he finds it. Over here we're just trying to get our patrons to the right polling locations. Oh and apparently also do their children's homework for them.

Go vote.

2004 Predictions or Uggh I gotta go to bed.

Wow long and late night. Today my time at work was completely monopolized by, well, work. Afterwards, my time after work was monopolized by visiting Dad for some fifty hours. Currently my time at home is being monopolized by Consuela’s need for the phone which keeps me from wasting what little time I have left net surfing. As it turns out, you the reader, benefit the most from this because it gives me time to hammer out these hastily thrown together Official Lib Chron Election 2004 worthless predictions.

As I sit here now the results from Dixville Notch, New Hampshire are being counted. While we will shortly know these actual results, hypothetical results for the rest of the nation have been divined by observers using all sorts of crazy methods involving such things as tea leaves, football, and something called a “likely voter.” The latest poll results are summarized here at Political Wire. Don’t stare at them too long. Apparently they are difficult and confusing. I learned this from Bob Woodward who appeared on CNN this evening to really earn the fat paycheck he receives to say and write cogent, thoughtful things about politics by saying that the polling data was “dizzying.” In other words, “Hello I’m on TV! Thinking is hard. How much are you paying me for this? Good.” While I may share Mr. Woodward’s aversion to doing any serious work or thinking very hard, I also do not make a nice living trading on my useless opinion and therefore can, with a clear conscience, share with you the following observations on tomorrow’s umm.. today’s elections.

Louisiana Senate:

  • Vitter 45%
  • John 27%
  • Kennedy 25%
  • Morrell Dammit, why are you here?

Perfect example of what is wrong with the local press in Louisiana. Morrell’s presence in this race was always intended solely to keep Kennedy out of the runoff. John has the right friends in the State Democratic Party. Conventional wisdom holds that his geographic base gives him the best chance to win. Morrell is a team player in the party. He is only running in order to submarine Kennedy’s more populist campaign. The local media refuses to report on this angle and instead takes the whole thing at face value. Either way, Vitter is dead meat in the runoff.

Public Service Commission: Cleo Fields will win based solely on my hunch that voters in New Orleans will take literally the double negative yard signs referenced in my previous post.

Orleans Parish Criminal Sheriff: Marlin Gusman will defeat Warren Riley. I think that this race will further encourage a strong candidate to run against Ray Nagin in the next mayoral campaign. Nagin has repeatedly demonstrated that his endorsement is not worth a whole lot which raises questions about his political muscle. Riley will be the latest to fall with Nagin in his corner.

Ok, the Presidential race. Nightline has just reported that Bush has taken Dixville Notch 19 to 7. Ummm... it's okay, guys there's still a lot of counting left to be done. Earlier this afternoon I promised to go through every state. My bleeding retinas regret that promise but I am nonetheless here to make good. Listed below are your fifty United States of America in their eventual electoral colors as I see them Let's begin with the...

States in which I have seen at least one official Major League Baseball Game.

Electoral Votes: 34
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1845
State Motto: This sure is a big state we got here

Ok so it's an easy target and I want to say all sorts of nasty things about this state like how as the home of Bush, Enron, America's oil industry, the Dallas Cowboys Texas is the perfect symbol of everything that is currently wrong with America but, well, my mom is from there so back off, man! Texas is big. Texas is red. Texas does not give a shit what you think.

Electoral Votes: 11
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1821
Baseball Teams improbably swept by Boston in the World Series: 1

You know who I hate? Tony LaRussa. You know who else? Mike Martz. Many analysts are looking at this as a bellweather state. I think Bush has it sewn up but I don't think the election hinges on it at all.

Electoral Votes: 21
2000: Gore
Admitted to Union: 1818
Daisies Produced: 1 (I cannot absolutely verify this number)

Hey look a blue one! Outcome wasn't ever in doubt here. Let's move on. (Go Cubbies)

Electoral Votes: 10
2000: Gore
Admitted to Union: 1848
Ginseng Capital of the World: Wausau, WI

For the record, Zogby, which I consider to be the most reliable polling outlet has Kerry ahead by seven points here so I may be going out on a limb. I once heard someone describe Wisconsonites as "Hippie Republicans." This sounds about right. They may like to party a little but eventually they grow up to become white bread suburbanites and soccer moms and whatnot. Republican strategists invented the term "security moms" with places like Wisconsin in mind this year. Traditionally, the state is strong for labor and this will be close but I'm going red with this one.

Electoral Votes: 12
2000: Gore
Admitted to Union: 1788
Yankees: Suck

Ummm... Kerry.

Bible Belt States

North Carolina
Electoral Votes: 15
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1789
Words Advertisers Actually Use to Describe the Taste of Cigarettes: "Smooth" "Mild"

Asthetically pleasing state. You've got the mountains, you've got beaches, you've got realtively mild weather. You've got too many damn crazy GSUSy cracker Bush voters is what you've got there.

South Carolina
Electoral Votes: 8
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1788
Had to be Dragged Back into the Union: Kicking and Screaming

In its heyday, this was kind of the Texas of the 19th century; the economic and political fault line of the dominant national crisis. South Carolina is still the center of some of the most well egregious ugliness of modern campaigning. In 2000, Bush and Rove really bared their fangs and smeared the hell out of John McCain. Just this morning, there were concerns over voter supression tactics targeting black voters. Bush lock, of course.

Electoral Votes: 15
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1788
State Flower: Cherokee Rose

Bush lock.

Electoral Votes: 9
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1819

On a recent road trip, I discovered an Alabama welcome center that featured a stone carving reminiscent of Roy's rock which read "Alabama: We dare defend our rights." Scary stuff.

Electoral Votes: 6
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1817
Crooked Letters: 4

One of the poorest and chunkiest states in the Union. Also one of the most solidly Republican.

Electoral Votes:6
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1836

Bush's surprise is in Wisconsin, Kerry's is here.

Electoral Votes:
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1796

An interesting state, demographically. The western third is very much like Mississippi; very bible belt, large black population, very poor. Central Tennessee is kind of what you would call "New South" White, professional, suburban, Republican. Nashville's hilly landscape littered with Wal-Marts and Olive Gardens as far as the eye can see. The east is Appalachian, white, poor, politically independant. It'll go for Bush pretty heavily this year. Tennessee claims to have some sort of disproportionate responsibility for country music. Screw you guys for that too.

Rust Belt States

Electoral Votes: 17
2000: Gore
Admitted to Union: 1837
Residents Actually referred to as: Michiganders (are there Michigeese?)

Strong pro-union state hit hard by de-industrialization. Kind of the template for the region.

Electoral Votes: 11
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1816

Rural almost Southern culture. Indiana was a power base for the Klan when it was a real political force in the early part of the last century. Solidly Republican.

Electoral Votes: 21
2000: Gore
Admitted to Union: 1787
Home State of: V.O.D.

Yep, this is a big pick up for Kerry. Which brings us to

Kerry's Northeastern Locks Listed Here With Their Corresponding Electoral Votes

Maryland: 10
D.C.: 3
Delaware: 3
New Jersey: 15
Connecticut: 7
Rhode Island: 4
Vermont: 3
New York: 31
Maine: 4

What About New Hampshire?
4 miserable EVs for Bush

Can you tell it's getting late?

States Split Apart by Civil War

West Virginia
5 EVs for Bush

13 EVs for Bush

States which are in vogue picks for Bush to pull upsets

10 EVs

7 EVs
Kerry holds on to both of these.

New Mexico
5 EV's
Bush gets this one. Mostly because Kerry didn't put Bill Richardson on the ticket.

States That Have Elected Some Seriously Wacky Governors Over the Years

55 Electoral Votes
Ain't the Electoral College fun? Largest state in the union and hardly anyone cares what happens there.

9 Electoral Votes
The Gret Stet, as many of you know, is by far the most culturally diverse and, yes, historically the most politically progressive state in the South. Those of us who watch the polls closely here (well at least me anyway) have reason to believe that Louisana could have been in play this year had the Kerry campaign given it just a bit of attention. As it is Bush gets this one on what I'm going to score as defensive indiffernece.

States I Am Not Entirely Certain Actually Exist

11 EVs
Daisy claims to have been to some place called "Seattle." I continue to find this assertion dubious.

7 EVs

3 EVs

4 EVs

Bush's Locks in Flyover Country

4 EVs

3 EVs

3 EVs

North Dakota
3 EVs

South Dakota
3 EVs

5 EVs

6 EVs

7 EVs

Utah5 EVs

10 EVs

Can Kerry Sneak Away With Nevada?
No 5 EVs for Bush

What About Colorado?
Yes, Kerry pulls out a surprise 9 EVs there.

Ok but who wins then?

Well it's all about battle torn, fraud-ridden Florida and Ohio. The question I keep asking myself about this race is this. Everywhere, voter registrations are not only up they are through the roof. After twenty plus years of reading about how dissaffected the electorate is and how no one takes the time to even vote anymore we suddenly find ourselves in the midst of an election where we are expecting record turnout, where people are camping out and waiting three and four hours to vote. The question is are this many people this passionate, this determined to have their say because they approve of George W. Bush and all that his administration has meant for us and for the world? I find that highly implausible. Maybe I am too much of an interested party to make a completely objective call here but I really have to believe that Ohio and Florida are going to Kerry today. (It is today now) Otherwise, God help us.

Total Electoral vote Prediction:


Monday, November 01, 2004

Broken: Political Yard Signs

I spotted a few of these statements of preference in the PSC race adorning local neutral grounds and green spaces today. Is this a double negative? I'm not sure what the sign makers actually intended. Posted by Hello

Psychic soldiers

Um... well... yeah, you gotta see this. I found it reading 2 Millionth today but it's all over. Really, just... just look.

Election Eve

First, the good news.
CINCINNATI - Two federal judges on Monday barred political party representatives from challenging voters at polling places throughout Ohio. State Republicans planned to appeal.

An order by U.S. District Judge Susan Dlott of Cincinnati found that the application of Ohio's statute allowing challengers at polling places was unconstitutional.
link via atrios

More good news. Polls all over the place are looking better and better. Here's the latest from the electoral vote predictor site.

Bad news. Rain in South Louisiana on Tuesday. Rain in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Need another reason to vote? The AFL-CIO has ten.

Comming tonight
Jeffrey predicts the electoral vote state by state. Tune in.