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Tuesday, January 03, 2012

Is there still time for a late T-Paw surge?

Tonight the eyes of the nation will be mostly glued elsewhere... possibly the Sugar Bowl.. when probably fewer than 200,000 Republicans in Iowa gather in their local school cafeterias, Elks lodges, and that one building in the strip mall that used to be a Laser Tag before it became a nondenominational Christian church and self-help book store for a little while but now nobody goes there much at all except for stuff like this to decide which crazy candidate will (probably) receive only 25 of the possible 2,286 delegates to the Republican National Convention this year.

In other words, it will be a major coup for the leading vote getter America's political pundits who have been craving for some actual horse race numbers to bat around no matter how insignificant those numbers might actually be. Unless Ron Paul wins, in which case, the whole thing will be written off altogether as the overblown joke that it actually is and nobody wants that to happen.

Anyway here's my card going in. If you like you can reverse Paul's and Santorum's or Perry's and Newt's positions but whatever way you like it I'm thinking we get 25 for Mitt followed by a plurality of voters who can't decide between Crazy A and Crazy B. After that there's probably still another 20 percent or so who can't decide between NotMitt A and NotMitt B and the rest is just wasted troll votes.

Mitt: 25%

Santorum 19%

Paul: 17%

Newt: 12%

Perry: 10%

Aaron Rodgers: 9%

Oklahoma State: 7%

The real winners in our political system anyway: The 1%

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