The next phase in the killing of New Orleans

The next statewide election cycle is almost upon us and as Stephanie Grace points out this morning, political hacks of all stripes are watching for indicators of just how weakened the New Orleans voting base has become. As we pointed out before the mayor's race, Louisiana politics is defined by a delicate balance of power among distinct voting groups. The unusual statewide Republican interest in the mayoral election was largely aimed at damaging the clout of the New Orleans faction in state politics. At this point we can only speculate as to how damaging a weakened electoral clout will be to the city's expectations of sympathy or aid from state government during the next 10-15 years of recovery....I'm guessing pretty bad, though. The upcoming primary in the race for Sec of State will give us our first look at how successful this strategy has been. The results of this election will also.. as Grace observes.. grant the victor certain advantages in the next round.

Despite the clear delineations, there's little in the way of ideology in this race, at least not on the surface. All three major candidates talk of the importance of ballot access and propose plans to solve the polling commissioner shortage. None of them say they favor a timeline for forcing hurricane evacuees who remain in other states off the voter rolls -- although the idea may well surface before the gubernatorial or Senate races.

Yet whoever's elected might have the chance to make all sorts of smaller policy decisions that could affect future voting. The language of those choices tends to break down as voter access versus opportunity for corruption, but the underlying reality is that they also have potential to help one party or the other.

And that means there's more at stake than just electoral math.