It’s rare for us to completely write off an incumbent. In fact, we only did so in one race this cycle, when we moved Gov. Tom Corbett’s (R) reelection bid in Pennsylvania to Safe Democratic a month before the election. Sure enough, Corbett lost by nearly 10 points.What comes next will say a lot about how serious people are about this LSU timesheet business. It looks like a legitimate point of inquiry. But that's a different thing from saying much will come of it which I rather doubt.
Landrieu is basically in the same boat, and it would be an absolute shock if she won. So we’re moving the Louisiana Senate runoff from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.
Still, if you're interested, if Senator Cassidy has to step down then the Governor has to call a special election. The Governor... likely David Vitter by that time.. will also have vacated his own Senate seat in early 2016. But because that term will have less than a year remaining, he can just appoint a temp to fill out the rest of it. I'm not clear on whether or not the temp can then run for that seat in 2016.
Anyway, the point is there is a possibility (slim as it may be) that we could end up with two completely new Senators in the next couple of years. So much for "clout", I guess.