The FEMA bubble

Not gonna last forever, people. 

The population of New Orleans was 369,250 as of July 1, 2012, an increase of 25,000 people since April 1, 2010, according to U.S. Census Bureau cities and towns population estimates released earlier this week.

Greg Rigamer, a New Orleans-based demographer and consultant with GCR Inc., calls the data good news but says New Orleans still has a way to go before hitting its pre-Katrina population.

The population of New Orleans in July 2005, a month before Katrina hit, was 454,000, he said.

Rigamer said the city could be back to pre-Katrina levels by 2020.

“What’s going on in New Orleans is you started out with decreased base from Katrina and you are also seeing a lot of federal money pumped into the city,” Rigamer said. “There is a lot of recovery spending occurring right now. A lot of FEMA projects under way.”

Eventually that stimulus is going to run dry.  In the meantime, are we building a city that will sustain economic opportunity and affordable living for a growing population on into the future?  Probably not.

(GNOCDC's Allison) Plyer also said post-Katrina housing in New Orleans, while lower in cost than major cities such as New York City and San Francisco, is more expensive now than in the past.

“It’s no longer inexpensive to live here. Between taxes, insurance and utilities, the cost of living is higher now,” Plyer said.

And that's all probably by design too.  The people making the decisions now will be perfectly fine after the "boom times" start to stagnate. After that, it's a long coast until the levees eventually break again.  At which point it'll probably be time to strike the set here anyway.