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Saturday, June 27, 2009

Meanwhile, back in the real world

The Climate bill that just passed the House may not be the most direct way to go about reducing carbon emissions or "creating green jobs" as the President is fond of claiming, but it does create some interesting secondary markets.
When the program is scheduled to begin, in 2012, the estimated price of a permit to emit a ton of carbon dioxide will be about $13. That is projected to rise steadily as emission limits come down, but the bill contains a provision to prevent costs from rising too quickly in any one year.

The bill would grant a majority of the permits free in the early years of the program, to keep costs low. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the average American household would pay an additional $175 a year in energy costs by 2020 as a result of the provision, while the poorest households would receive rebates that would lower their annual energy costs by $40.

Several House members expressed concern about the market to be created in carbon allowances, saying it posed the same risks as those in markets in other kinds of derivatives. Regulation of such markets would be divided among the Environmental Protection Agency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
Wow what a fascinating potential clusterfuck that is to ponder.

Anyway, I'm not usually one to cheer oddball compromise market-incentive-based approaches to environmental legislation. A better bill would have set limits on emissions and EPA enforced penalties for violating those limits. But what they've come up with is far more imaginative and should be fun to watch in action. I'm just not so sure I mean "imaginative" and "fun" in a good way.

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