One month from now, many a political activist and amateur pundit will survey the landscape and speculate on why certain candidates lost. As in most cycles, too much credit will be lavished upon events in October -- and this year that means there will be too much of a focus on the saga involving former Florida Rep. Mark Foley (R).
Big news in the last month does matter, but October stories aren't singularly important. If they were, campaigns wouldn't spend a dollar in any month other than October.
October incidents can have an effect on turnout, but they usually do little to add or change the perception of a candidate. A candidate's image is built months earlier.
In the two weeks since the Foley scandal unfolded, I've noticed an interesting pattern in key races: Republicans seeing the biggest drops in support are those who didn't think they were in big trouble three months ago. Now they have little framework with which to define themselves or their opponents in this awful climate.
That last point is a bit off as few if any Republican candidates will go from "completely safe" to "lost". The point is that no one should expect the Foley scandal to be the death knell of the Republican congressional majority.
Oyster has spent the better part of the week trying to generate interest in the resignation of Rep. Rodney Alexander for his part in the GOP coverup. So far there has been no such outcry from Louisiana media or voters. I suspect that voters in congressional elections throughout the country will shrug off the scandal and vote for Republicans with less direct connection to the coverup than Alexander seems to have.
The Senate races look even less rosy for Democrats. It looks to me like Corker (TN) Allen (VA) and Tenent (MO) and even De Wine (OH) can easily win next month. We've already established... waaay back at the begining of this race... that Lieberman will win in CT. So, from here, it still looks like a Repblican majority in both houses plus one Independent.
The overriding issue is still Iraq.. an issue that could have been owned by Democrats but they continue to fail to campaign on the moral high ground.
Expect more exploding things in the coming years.
No comments:
Post a Comment