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Showing posts with label Foster Campbell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Foster Campbell. Show all posts

Monday, December 12, 2016

Some days the bear eats you

And then John Kennedy is here to tell you what that tastes like.
“For those of you who didn’t vote for me, I want to be your senator too,” Kennedy said in his victory speech at the Embassy Suites hotel in Baton Rouge. Despite differences that were underscored in the campaign, the people of Louisiana share a lot more, he said.

“To a bear, we all taste like chicken,” he said with a chuckle.
Despite the fervor of anti-Trump revulsion present on social media these past few weeks, only about 30 percent of the electorate bothered to show up for the Senate runoff. By comparison, Mary Landrieu lost her 2014 runoff vs Bill Cassidy having received 25,000 more votes than John Kennedy won with on Saturday.  In what I'm afraid may prove to be a lingering pattern here and elsewhere, Democrats were angry but they weren't mobilized.

There are reasons for that which I'm not interested in going into too much detail about here right now. But here is the quick and dirty version. First, the national Democratic Party is too distracted with its own leadership issues to throw a bunch of resources and attention into a long shot race in Louisiana. Campbell benefited from  an influx of money during the runoff. But this was mostly independent national donors and celebrities desperate to DO SOMETHING after the Trump win. The party wasn't really heading that up. But, again, they really weren't in a position to.

Meanwhile, the Louisiana Democratic Party never really saw Campbell as its guy in the first place. I wrote about this during the primary when party insiders were rallying around Caroline Fayard's thoroughly despicable smear campaign against Foster. Subsequently their support for Foster in the runoff was reluctant and lukewarm.

In the future, the Louisiana Democrats are going to have to decide whether they want to be a party that represents the poor and working people of this state or if they want to keep on raising money from wealthy interests in the oil and tourism industries.  There's more to their dislike of Campbell than just this but his outward antagonism towards the oil companies is a bit too reckless for the careerists and fundraisers in their little club.  There's a reckoning to come there. But that's for a later time. In 2016 it just means that there wasn't any will to get out the vote necessary to save this seat.  And now the slimiest empty suit in the state is a US Senator.

The news was better in Orleans Parish where the necessary millages passed and the judicial race went off as well as could be expected.

Elsewhere around the state, matters were different.
In his first bid for public office, Clay Higgins — known as the Cajun John Wayne — defeated political veteran Scott Angelle on Saturday night in the contest to become Acadiana’s congressman.

Higgins, who ran as a tough-talking outsider, soundly beat Angelle, who was the presumptive front-runner since entering the race, by about 7,000 ballots, or 12 percent of the total vote, according to the Secretary of State's complete but unofficial tally.
Not shedding any tears for Angelle but, well, congratulations, LA-03, you've proven once again that we are living in a cuckoo clock.  Here. Meet your new congressman.  He prefers to be paid in cash.
After he became famous in early 2015, Higgins began exploiting his position in the sheriff’s department to sell t-shirts and mugs, negotiate paid talk show appearances, paid speeches, paid advertisements, and even a reality television show, Higgins’ emails reveal. He did all of this on his government email account during work hours without the permission or knowledge of his supervisors. Higgins also appears to have attempted to conceal his earnings from the IRS in order to avoid wage garnishment for unpaid taxes. Whether those actions constitute tax fraud is unclear.

“I get paid 1500 for a television production and a grand for a radio production, plus 150 an hour travel time and an additional grand for a photo session,” Higgins wrote in an email to Tony Morrow, a lawyer in Lafayette, Louisiana, who he had agreed to film television ads for. “That’s a total of 10 grand for the eight productions.”

But Higgins added an unusual request. “I prefer to get paid in cash,” he wrote. “I have my reasons for preferring cash, reasons best discussed, if need be, in person.”

Higgins did not report this money in financial disclosure forms for his campaign.
In any other year, this would be a major national story about goofball Louisiana politics.  Now it's just part of the whole mess.  I don't even know if that's worse or not.

Anyway, look. If you voted, canvassed, phone banked, drove people to the polls, or just yelled at someone for being wrong on the internet  in 2016, you shouldn't let these results discourage you from getting right back at it.  It's been a bad year, but sometimes, very often in fact, the bear does sup on your delicious chickeny goodness. It would be wrong to conclude from this that all we have left to do is continue sinking into authoritarian fascism, the Gulf of Mexico, the plot of Robocop, or whatever nihilistic thing you're certain is right around the corner now.   Those things might, in fact be on the way, but you don't have to sit and wait for them.  We'll be electing a new mayor and city council in 2017. That should give us plenty to think about for a while.

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Donald Trump's Huuge Hangar

During a cameo appearance at what was ostensibly his own campaign rally, John Kennedy introduced Trump in Baton Rouge on Friday. Trump went on to complain about the "corrupt" election he just won.  Oh and to brag about the size of the hangars.  It opens this week's show.



Anyway you've got one more chance to vote against Trump today if you like.
President-elect Donald Trump told nearly 5,000 cheering fans who gathered in Baton Rouge on Friday that he wants Louisiana to help pad the GOP majority in the U.S. Senate by electing John N. Kennedy.

"If he doesn't win, I've got myself a problem in Washington," Trump said at an event that was billed as a GOP get-out-the-vote rally ahead of Saturday's election and featured the state's top Republican leaders.
Also in Orleans Parish there's a judgeship on the line as well as two millages.  The things to know about those is the S&WB millage is a renewal that will, actually lower your taxes in practice
The drainage tax is now assessed at 4.66 mills but would drop to 4.46 mills under the renewal. A homestead-exempt property worth $350,000 now pays about $128 a year because of the tax and would pay about $123 under the lower rate.

City officials have compared that cost to the savings on their insurance rates that many New Orleans property owners received when new flood maps went into effect this year, noting that the city’s drainage and flood protection systems played a role in the reduced rates.

“If the millage is not renewed, we’re going to have trouble keeping the pumps on,” Landrieu said.
As for the fire millage, well, it helps put to bed a decades' long dispute the city is ready to put behind it. They tried to pass this thing during the last cycle with an unpopular police millage attached to it.  We'll see if it does better on its own today. 

Friday, December 09, 2016

Too late for a do-over

Or maybe it's too early to start the next argument. The fundamental problem for Foster Campbell in this Senate runoff doesn't have anything to do with John Kennedy.  As we can see from his ads and from the rallies last week and this week, Kennedy's closing argument is all about Trump.

Trump won this cycle in Louisiana. Campbell's challenge was, in the space of a few short weeks, to create a whole new cycle either separate from or in reaction to that.  Plan A would have been to run against Senate Candidate John Kennedy. But that isn't so easy when the guy refuses to debate and hides behind Big Daddy Trump. What does John Kennedy actually believe or stand for?  He hopes never to have to actually answer that question.

Plan B for Campbell would have been to run a Trump reaction campaign; try and turn the incredulity and revulsion against Trump into a way to motivate the disaffected voters who didn't participate in the primary. Send a message. Give Trump a problem in Washington.  Something like that. That's hard to do.  Especially so when the party leaves you hanging.
Campbell's effort hasn't attracted national surrogates or money, which is a sure sign that Democratic leaders think Louisiana, which gave 58 percent of its vote to Trump, is a lost cause. But he's managed to tap into an impromptu network of out-of-state disappointed Democrats looking for one last chance to send some sort of message.

But if they see a Campbell victory as a rebuke to Trump, Campbell's definitely not playing it that way. Instead, he's promising to "stand with the new president when he's right for Louisiana," but have the "courage to say no when he's wrong," as Campbell's highest-profile supporter, Gov. John Bel Edwards, put it in a closing ad.
Campbell's lame fallback is to be with Trump and the Republicans except when he's not. Which is sort of the same noncommittal strategy that got Hillary beat last month. Weird that the Democrats aren't supporting this. 

Thursday, December 08, 2016

On the precipice

Of all the insults inflicted on us by this year in politics, Senator John Neely Kennedy might be the worst.
NEW ORLEANS - Republican John Kennedy is comfortably ahead of Democratic candidate Foster Campbell in the U.S. Senate runoff that will be decided Saturday, according to a poll recently conducted by the University of New Orleans.

The poll, conducted by surveying 776 registered Louisiana voters, showed Kennedy being favored by 62 percent of the respondents, to just 33 percent for Campbell. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
On the other hand, it's the UNO poll so... 

Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Maybe Kennedy is really worried

They're sending Trump in to stump.
WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump plans to head to Louisiana to campaign Friday for Republican state Treasurer John Kennedy, a GOP leader said.

“Donald Trump will be coming to Louisiana the day before the runoff," Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker, head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Tuesday. “We’re going to try real hard to win."

Trump’s trip would come on the heels of last Saturday’s visit by Vice President-elect Mike Pence and Wicker. Wicker plans to return again for Saturday's runoff.
That's Pence last week and Trump this week all to win a seat in a state everyone agrees is decidedly red.  What are they so concerned about? You'd think the national Democrats would be trying as hard to salvage this win but we've heard nary a peep.  Must be too busy blaming The Left for 2016. 

Monday, December 05, 2016

Senator John Neely Kennedy

Looks like the Campbell campaign could have used a few more purple party buses.
Early voting was sluggish in advance of this weekend's runoff election, with fewer than 6 percent of Louisiana's 3 million registered voters casting ballots.

About 171,000 voters cast ballots early for the Saturday election that will decide an open U.S. Senate seat and two open U.S. House seats, along with dozens of local elections.

That's only a third of the people who early voted ahead of last month's primary election, which had the attention-grabbing presidential race on the ballot.

December elections historically have had low turnouts, and the Secretary of State's office expects about 35 percent of voters statewide to show up for the election, compared to 68 percent for the presidential election.

Early voting data showed white voters cast early ballots in greater proportions than black voters.
Not a great sign. 

Saturday, December 03, 2016

Today is the last day to vote early

The Louisiana Senate race between Foster Campbell and John Kennedy is the last seat to be decided in the next Congress. It's getting a lot of attention nationwide as frustrated left leaning people all over the country throw money at their angst
After making appearances on network news programs and receiving supportive messages from a long roster of celebrities, Louisiana Democrat Foster Campbell has reported collecting $2.5 million in campaign donations between Oct. 20 and Nov. 20 -- more than twice the amount he raised in the entire run-up to the Nov. 8 primary.

A campaign finance report due this week and provided to media by his campaign shows Campbell, who faces Republican John Kennedy in the Dec. 10 runoff for U.S. Senate, still had about $1.4 million in his campaign coffer as of Nov. 20.
Meanwhile Kennedy, still the odds on favorite to win this thing in a walk, has been in Washington where his friend David Vitter has set him up with all the important lobbyists to know
Kennedy held two fundraising events in Washington last week. A Nov. 15 luncheon was hosted by the Cornerstone Affairs Group lobbying firm. Three of Cornerstone’s lobbyists were listed as hosts of the event, along with Kirby Political Action Committee – Houston-based Kirby Corp. bills itself as the nation’s premier tank barge operator – and United Egg Producers, an Atlanta-based lobbying firm that represents chicken farmers.

The suggested contribution was $2,500 per political action committee and $1,000 per individual.

Cornerstone, like other lobbying firms, is known for hosting events that can give lobbyists and business interests an entrée if a future issue arises.

“That’s how Washington works,” said Michael Henderson, an LSU professor of communication. “People who want to see certain policies enacted will want access and be connected to people in power. Candidates need resources, and folks are willing to provide those resources. It doesn’t necessarily mean they have John Kennedy in their pocket.”
No, it doesn't necessarily mean they have Kennedy in their pocket, I guess. The Kennedy In Your Pocket novelty key ring is still in production. You know, press a button and Kennedy says something smarm-folksy about guns or weed killer or whatever. Hopefully out by Christmas but they're still figuring out how to fit one button for each of the "400 ways" to cut the state budget.

Meanwhile Vice President Elect Mike Pence is flying in to New Orleans today to raise..um... enthusiasm (?) for Kennedy.   For whatever reason, the Trump-Pence people like to hold rallies at Lakefront Airport.  Trump's campaign event there earlier this year was rather exciting.

Anyway, it sure would have been fun to have a Senate debate or two this week. But, you can see the candidates (particularly Kennedy) have had other stuff to do, apparently. Stephanie Grace thinks we should be insulted.
The final weeks of the Senate race could have featured four separate showdowns between the Republican state treasurer and his runoff opponent, Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, but none came to be. Kennedy declined an invitation to appear jointly before the Press Club of Baton Rouge, and three planned television debates were canceled when Kennedy agreed to attend one, Campbell another and negotiations over the third broke down when Kennedy refused to allow a live audience and Campbell refused to proceed without one.

The losers are those voters who still want to get a better sense of the man they'll soon send to Washington. Granted, that's not all of them, or most, or perhaps even more than a small subsample. Those who want to be more engaged, though, deserve more respect and consideration from the candidates than this sad state of affairs suggests.
We agree!  For what it's worth, we did make an effort to rectify this sad state of events by asking both candidates to appear on the fake radio show with us.  Only one response so far, though.




Kennedy still ducking. I wonder if we should call Cornerstone to see if they can help.

Monday, November 28, 2016

Hamburger in every pot

I don't have a real joke here. It's just that Foster Campbell is kind of a goofball.
“I’m Foster Campbell, and I live on a farm in north Louisiana,” the candidate said to the crowd in an accent that was gravy-thick, drawing unexpectedly raucous cheers as he championed Democratic presidents for pushing Medicare, Social Security and the G.I. Bill of Rights. He ended by telling the crowd to come visit him in Washington: “I’ll buy you a hamburger.
I should be upset that that NYT profile treats the Louisiana Senate race as an inconsequential curiosity. Unfortunately, that's pretty accurate. It's an opportunity for demoralized Democrats in state as well as activists and donors from out of state to channel a little impotent rage at the Trump result.  But it's not likely to come to much of anything.  Campbell isn't a strong enough candidate to overcome a statewide Republican base strong enough to sweep even a toad like John Kennedy in.

Also, the story does contain a pretty good dig at Elliot Stonecipher so it's not all for naught. 
“Look, I know them both,” said Elliott Stonecipher, a political consultant from Shreveport, La., who first met Mr. Campbell when they were both public schoolteachers in the 1970s. “The three of us could sit around in a living room and talk politics and as long as Foster Campbell doesn’t have a chance to attack oil and gas, there’s not going to be a smidgen of difference.”

That is a bit of an overstatement: Mr. Campbell was alone among the major Senate candidates here talking openly about human-caused climate change; he also supports an increase in the minimum wage and promises to vote against any repeal of the Affordable Care Act.

But Mr. Campbell’s fondness for bashing the oil and gas companies, along with the railroads, the tobacco companies, the payday loan companies and a long list of other corporate targets, makes him an interesting figure in a party suddenly trying to figure out how to regain support among the rural working class.
Also it's kind of weird for Stonecipher or anyone to minimize the significance of a fundamental difference between candidates in how they relate to oil and gas. In this state, that's pretty much everything. 

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

John Neely Kennedy is a turkey

As of a week ago, I was under the impression there were two debates scheduled. As of today there are zero.
Democrat Foster Campbell has accused his Republican opponent in the U.S. Senate race of " ducking and dodging debates left and right" after a local television station opted to cancel its planned debate after it couldn't reach terms with both campaigns.

Republican John N. Kennedy's campaign cited a scheduling conflict.

Gary Wordlaw, WVLA News Director, told The Advocate that Kennedy's campaign did not want a live audience in attendance for the debate, while Campbell's did.

He said the station had no other option for moving foward "unless they could agree to it one way or the other."
It's a shame Kennedy is so afraid of crowds. Cancelling this debate deprives Louisiana voters of what would have been the folksiest public event this side of the Country Bear Jamboree. So for those of you who feel like you are missing out, here is a conceptual rendering of what such a debate might have looked like.



Feel better?  Foster doesn't.
"Mr. Kennedy is so weak he won't even debate me," Campbell said in a statement. "He's making time to talk to deep-pocketed, corporate lobbyists, but he won't make time to talk to the people of Louisiana. He's pitiful."
Anyway Kennedy clearly figures he can go run and hide at this point. Frankly, there's no reason to believe he can't

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Peculiar

Even here in the post-apocalyptic wastes of Trumpland, what does it take to get one Democrat to stand with another in a race for the last available Senate seat?  Apparently it still takes a week or so.
Fayard endorsed Campbell on Tuesday (Nov. 15), a week after the public service commissioner advanced to a runoff against state Treasurer John Kennedy, R-Madisonville, to replace retiring Sen. David Vitter, R-La. Fayard, a lawyer from New Orleans, finished fourth.

 "After the setbacks suffered last week by the Democratic Party nationally,‎ it gives me great hope to know that Foster Campbell will protect President Obama's legacy and fight for the same Democratic Party values that Secretary Clinton, myself, and so many others have championed," she said in a statement.
That's nice of her to say. It would be nicer to have a statement that says something about what Senator Campbell would do for Louisiana other than just observe Obama's, Clinton's and Fayard's "values."  But I'm not advising either Fayard or Campbell so they can write whatever they think is proper.

What, by the way, should we imagine this was all about? 
But Fayard's support did appear to come with a price. Before the endorsement announcement, Campbell campaign spokeswoman Mary-Patricia Wray took to Twitter to apologize to Fayard and her family. The tweet was later deleted, but Fayard retweeted a screenshot of it:

"Ms. Fayard had some peculiar demands and we tried to meet them all," Wray said Tuesday.
Sure, we're in this situation where a fascistic con man has ascended to the Presidency and is surrounding himself with freaks and monsters. And the Republicans control all of Congress which they are about to use to roll us all back to the Nineteenth Century.  But, ok. Caroline Fayard, commander of 12 percent of the vote in the Louisiana Senate primary, has some demands.

Now, don't get me wrong. I could see why this might matter had some specific issue animated her campaign that she now wanted carried forward.  But the Fayard campaign wasn't about anything besides how great it is that Caroline Fayard is a young-ish lawyer from a wealthy family who founded "a friggin airline company."  Apparently their peculiar demand was that one of Campbell's spokespeople tweeted, "I'm sorry." Because we are all in the fifth grade now.

Worse, the Times-Pic article relaying all of this to us attempts to conflate whatever that apology was about to the independent activity of some "online blogs."
In an ad that ran in early October, Fayard accused Campbell of attacking her family, although she didn't provide details. Fayard is the daughter of Calvin Fayard, a successful Denham Springs trial lawyer and major political fundraiser with strong ties to the Clintons. As the race grew heated, online blogs began dredging up past news articles about Calvin Fayard, including a 2006 Vanity Fair piece where he is seen wearing a suit and holding a shotgun outside his mansion on St. Charles Avenue.

Fayard's campaign later ran an ad that tried to tie Campbell to David Duke, a white supremacist and former KKK leader who had entered the Senate race as a Republican.
Of course we aren't sure which "online blogs" are referred to here. We do have the Vanity Fair reference as a marker, though, which leads us to this AZ post dated October 28.  If Fayard's "early October" ad accusing the Campbell campaign of attacking her family was a reference to that post, the chronology is... well... challenging.

Further in that vein we find this text in the post itself.
Still....I had nothing to say.

Now...well...now...her campaign went and did this absurd, tasteless bullshit:

Caroline Fayard chooses to continue running David Duke-themed anti-Foster Campbell ad, loses Alliance for Good Government endorsement

After she accused Campbell's campaign of being focused on attacking her family
So there's Jason writing in the post where the Vanity Fair article appears about how the "attacking her family" controversy had already happened by this point.  More importantly, notice Jason's motivation for saying anything at all begins with Fayard's disgusting David Duke ad.  The Times-Pic article asserts that this attack ran "later" than any of this.  So, you know, nice job cracking that nut.

Thanks to the T-P's obsession with the "online blogs" (especially Jason's) we're no nearer to understanding what the Fayards are so upset about.   Did the Fayard camp point the reporter toward AZ? They're not the sort of people who see enemies arrayed against them in every direction... oh wait..  of course, they are probably that sort. In any case, the Fayards are petty bullies.

It's a shame the reporters get so distracted. I "dredged up" some articles about the Fayards and posted them my own self on election day.  That, of course, also had fuckall to do with Campbell's campaign.
People use the internet to talk to their friends, neighbors, and anybody else who might be interested about politics and the things they know about it. That's pretty dang healthy for democracy, right?

Not in the minds of these reporters and campaign operatives, apparently.  They have it in their heads that they're the only people with any interest in the elections in the first place. The arrogance and cynicism at work in the worlds of career PR people (whether they work for campaigns or for newspapers) is a disturbing obstruction to civic participation.  They just can't conceive of a universe where citizens have ideas and information to share with one another if they aren't being paid to do so. It's as if we aren't supposed to involve ourselves in the decisions that directly affect our lives.. such as, you know, these elections in which we are asked to vote.

If they are going to take that attitude, if they are going to make up some bullshit about a blogger being responsible for the ugliness of a campaign where one of the candidates blatantly lied her ass off about the other and then demanded that he apologize to her,  the least we can ask is that they get the chronology right.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Everybody hates John Neely Kennedy

Maness and Boustany were asked if they might endorse the David Vitter backed Republican in the runoff. It made them tired to even have to think about it.
Kennedy also called Maness and was “very courteous,” said Maness’ spokesman, John Mathis. Mathis added that Maness is not issuing an endorsement as he focuses on getting a position with the Trump administration.

Reached Wednesday, Boustany begged off on answering whether he would endorse Kennedy, saying, “I’m pretty exhausted today.”

Fleming did not return a phone call, but Kennedy said he called him, too. In all, Kennedy plans to call 21 of the 22 other candidates, with only Duke on his personal do-not-call list.
Oh wait. Not everybody is grossed out by Kennedy. Turns out Caroline Fayard is so friendly she might not even endorse the only Democrat remaining. 
On Wednesday, asked whether she would endorse Campbell, Fayard said, “We will see.” She noted that Campbell had not called her to discuss the campaign and her possible support.

Fayard said Kennedy did call Tuesday night, leaving her “a nice and gracious voicemail message."

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Congratulations to David Vitter

It was his night as much as it was anyone's.
For his third Senate bid, Kennedy is receiving substantial help from members of Vitter’s team. He transferred a substantial state campaign war chest — law prohibits the use of money raised for a state office in a federal campaign — to the ESAFund PAC, which spent nearly $2 million producing blistering commercials against Boustany and Fleming.

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Rigging the Election Guide Part Two: The #lasen swamp

On Election Day 2016 there are over twenty candidates in the race to replace retiring U.S. Senator and noted disgrace to humanity David Vitter. Only two of them can qualify for the runoff, of course. And at this stage, everything we've seen in the polling indicates that one of them will be the dripping mound of animated smarm known as John Neely Kennedy. Kennedy is a despicable person. But he's got the highest job approval and name recognition among this field. And he's the only candidate who has successfully run for statewide office. As difficult as it is to stomach, he's always had the clearest path to the runoff among Republican candidates. So the game really is about who squeezes into that other slot.

Louisiana political convention tells us that spot should go to the strongest Democrat.  In fact, that is still the most likely outcome Tuesday. But it isn't a lock.  Early in the year Democratic poobahs were busy figuring out how to replicate their series of happy accidents winning strategy from the 2015 governor's race. 
Handwerk said the party’s current inclination is to attempt to mimic the gubernatorial race — to come up with a strong, possibly lesser-known candidate to rally behind early while Republicans battle each other for a spot in the runoff.
Yeah that didn't happen. This is the case because of a split among Democratic power brokers initiated by the increasingly exasperating candidacy of Caroline Fayard.

The Fabulous Fayards

Why is Fayard in the race? At first it seemed okay. For a while, a popular parlor game involved figuring a way to game the abnormally large field into a double Democrat runoff. This became an especially tantalizing  prospect after David Duke jumped in.  The now infamous Raycom poll even had Duke polling at 5 percent. If that's a reliable number (it probably isn't) it was thought the presence of Duke and other fringe candidates might have captured enough of the Republican vote in the Year of Trump to deny even Kennedy a runoff spot. But that was always a long shot and the math never really worked out.  Duke is still running as a spoiler. But he's probably there to spoil somebody besides Kennedy. More on that in a bit.

Early polling showed Fayard didn't have the numbers to compete. Her campaign was always light on substance anyway. To illustrate this, I refer you to political consultant Lamar White's endorsement of her in this September 2 blog post. The points on which Lamar makes his argument for her are these.

1) She is relatively young. 
If she is successful, at 38, she would be the youngest woman ever elected to the United States Senate. All told, 116 different people have been elected to the Senate in their thirties; not a single one of them was a woman.
2) She hold a prestigious degree.
Caroline is an Ivy League graduate; she finished at the front of her class at one of the top five law schools in the country.

3) She's worked with and for powerful people.
She’s worked at one of the most successful financial institutions in the world (and even at the White House). She’s taught law at Loyola in New Orleans, and as a lawyer, she’s worked on some of the biggest environmental damages cases in American history. Last year, she helped her brother launch a new airline company. A friggin airline company.
LOL "A friggin airline company," exclaims a breathless Lamar there.  Does Donald Trump have one of those?  Also the "successful financial institution" was Goldman Sachs.

4) Caroline represents "a new generation of leadership in Louisiana" whatever the hell that means.

At no point does Lamar say anything specific about what Senator Fayard's agenda is for a tenure in the US Senate. What constituencies does she represent?  Who will she fight against? Lamar doesn't say.  All that matters to him here is the personal profile. The post most reminded me of an old Gambit cover story by Jeremy Alford where then rising star Bobby Jindal was celebrated for his "Geek Appeal" rather than substantively analyzed for his policy agenda. As if to drive home the geek cred point, the post is accompanied by a podcast where Lamar interviews Fayard. See, she's cool. She'll come on this website and chat with us.

Lamar is a friend so I don't want to be too harsh here. I hope if he reads this he takes it as constructive criticism.  But in recent years, especially, he seems to base more of his political pronouncements on his personal knowledge of the individual candidates. Too many of his endorsements can be summarized as "I've met candidate so and so and they were very nice to me."  That's great. But it's not helpful to most readers. If anything, this personality based approach represents the opposite of "new generation" style politics.  It's just a repackaged version of good ol' boy networking. (Fayard is not an ol' boy, though, so I guess it's #woke.)

Anyway back to the race. Once it became apparent that she wasn't an early contender, it made more sense for Fayard to drop out, endorse Campbell, "unite the party" so to speak, and let the Democrats claim their default runoff spot. That didn't happen, though. It's a curious thing. Again, I'm not sure why Fayard stayed in the race. But I'm pretty clear on the effect of her being there. And her behavior in the meantime has ranged from plain embarrassing to downright suspicious.

And the Fayards are a suspicious lot to begin with. I've pointed you over to AZ for some background on this previously.  Calvin and Caroline Fayard have played dubious roles profiteering off of the BP settlement and Wisner trust disputes.  Caroline likes to call this "taking on BP" in her campaign ads. It's nothing of the sort, of course. Hilariously, she won't even endorse the state's attempt to sue the oil and gas industry over coastal erosion. But we've covered that already too.

Here is a more recent AZ post reminding us that Calvin Fayard was among the brigade of Uptown New Orleans aristocrats who, during the post-Katrina aftermath, barricaded themselves in their mansions behind their own guns and private security while taking verbal pot shots at the "demographics" of the city. This is from the Vanity Fair article Jason quotes.
Some of the city’s richest residents stepped into the breach, taking security into their own hands. In New Orleans’s upscale Uptown neighborhood, well-heeled and well-armed property owners, sometimes with security guards to assist them, kept possible looters at bay, carrying firearms openly in their neighborhoods and looking after neighbors’ homes and valuables—even keeping a close watch on friends’ irreplaceable art collections. Attorney Calvin Fayard—one of the region’s major political fund-raisers for the Democratic Party, and the owner of the so-called Wedding Cake House, one of the city’s grand mansions—would remain at home and on guard with a coterie of like-minded friends. Some would use their powerboats to rescue the marooned. Their neighbors would dine on gourmet food from nearby specialty stores. Some would bathe in their stagnant swimming pools. One or two would take the opportunity to fly by helicopter to the office to shred potentially sensitive business documents—to prevent them from falling into the wrong hands, should law and order break down altogether.
You might remember some of the other members of this A-Team.  Here is Ashton O'Dwyer in 2005 being interviewed from his stronghold.
In rich white enclaves like Uptown, residents are wary of sounding racist. But with their deep business and family connections, they say they are determined to ensure the new city will be very different than the old one, which for so long has been associated with crime, poor schools and corruption.

"Whatever you do, don't put people back in the city who are criminals and who are incapable of, or unwilling to, help themselves," said Mr. O'Dwyer, a volatile, white 57-year-old lawyer.

"What was once unacceptable in polite, respectable society has not only become commonplace over the past 30 years of Negro rule in this city, but it has become acceptable and I am not going to stand for it any more," said the fifth-generation New Orleans resident. "If we return to the same old, same old . . . I'm outta here."
And this is Jimmy Reiss
The new city must be something very different, Mr. Reiss says, with better services and fewer poor people. "Those who want to see this city rebuilt want to see it done in a completely different way: demographically, geographically and politically," he says. "I'm not just speaking for myself here. The way we've been living is not going to happen again, or we're out."
So these are the Fayards.  This is the world they come from.  And here is how they've applied these values to their political activities.  Caroline was a contributor to former Louisiana Congressman Richard Baker. Baker famously declared after Katrina that God had "cleaned up public housing" in New Orleans. That's pretty well in keeping with the Fayard ethos as laid out above. But there's more.

Much has been made in the news (even today, in fact) of the Fayards' close associations with the Clintons. In 2008 Calvin Fayard was a big time fundraiser for Hillary associated with a group calling themselves "Hillraisers." You may recall that after Hillary lost the nomination to Barack Obama, some of these people had a difficult time reconciling themselves to that fact. Fayard was among them.  Here he is at a McCain/Palin fundraiser aimed at courting disappointed Democrats. Fayard and his "liberal Democrat" friends were especially awed by Sarah Palin.
John Coale, an attorney in Washington, D.C. who is married to Greta Van Susteren, has worked with John McCain on tobacco legislation, and includes Nancy Pelosi among his friends, estimates he single-handedly brought in "50 percent" of the people who attended the fundraiser. He, too, was upset at how "Obama and Howard Dean and the crew" handled the situation as Clinton faced misogyny. He also questioned Obama's fitness for the job: "I've met with Obama three times… I think he was full of platitudes then and he's still full of platitudes now."

"I'm a liberal Democrat," Cole continued. "Sarah Palin just reinforced the reason I'm for McCain. I think she probably has more experience [than Obama], but I think it's appalling the way she has been treated," referring again to perceived sexism.

Calvin Fayard, another lawyer in New Orleans, said he "came away a lot more comfortable" with Palin after meeting her. "She struck me as being very energetic, very knowledgeable, and at least in touch with the rest of the world."
Oy! Here is an NYT account of the same event
More than 1,000 people paid $1,000 each for tickets to the main fund-raiser. Nearly 250 people who contributed $25,000 got dinner beforehand with Mr. McCain. 

The reception for former Clinton supporters, which also was attended by Rick Davis, the McCain campaign manager, was spearheaded by Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild, a former telecommunications entrepreneur and “Hillraiser” who brought in more than $100,000 for Mrs. Clinton’s campaign; Calvin Fayard, also a former Hillraiser and longtime Democratic donor from Louisiana, and Miguel Lausell, a former senior political adviser to the Clinton campaign from Puerto Rico.
The Hillraisers and the PUMA movement they spawned went on from their infatuation with Palin to other such luminous achievements as spreading (possibly initiating, actually) the disgusting racist "Birther" movement against Obama which, in turn, became a primary vehicle by which Donald Trump entered our national political discourse.  So it turns out we have Calvin Fayard, who is now spending his own money and calling in political favors from within the Landrieu-Carville orbit to push his daughter's Senate candidacy, to thank for a lot of things.  Just keep all of that in mind as we look at how Caroline has conducted her campaign, particularly where it concerns her David Duke fixation.

Usually we talk about David Duke's maneuverings with special attention to his grifting.  Sure, he's a deplorable white supremacist. But the actual reason he even shows up above ground is because he has a nose for money.  The most likely reason Duke is in the Senate race is because one way or another someone is paying him to be there. Recall that when his name first came up as a possible candidate this year, Duke was rumored to be entering as a challenger to US Rep Steve Scalise. At the time we speculated that perhaps some Democrat leaning jokers were attempting to highlight Scalise's controversial association with Duke by placing the two of them together on a ballot much the same way they once tried to run a porn star against David Vitter. At the last minute, though, Duke suddenly found himself running for Senate.  What happened there?  Did he find a more generous patron? 

On the other hand, Duke's motivation for running could be as simple as Duke thinking he could pull in a few extra donations or online followers by attaching his brand to Donald Trump. That's reasonable. Not doubt he has benefited from doing just that.

Similarly, Caroline Fayard has benefited from attaching her brand to David Duke.  Remember, Duke has never polled any better than 3 to 5 percent. But Fayard, has treated him as though he were her principal opponent. From the moment Duke entered the race, Fayard leaped at the opportunity to make the fringe candidate who deserves nobody's attention the center of her campaign. She was the most aggressive at throwing herself into the national media circus Duke inevitably generates.  Here she is on the Maddow show back in August soliciting donations.   All of the candidates tried some version of this, of course. But Fayard has themed the bulk of her advertising and fundraising appeals with the Duke bogeyman.  

The Fayard campaign's most reprehensible use of Duke was a disgusting attack on Foster Campbell that distorted his words and one photograph into an easily disproven lie that Campbell is in some way allied with Duke. Once the lie was exposed, Fayard was roundly shamed for it in the press. Here, for example, is Stephanie Grace giving her the whatfor.  The Alliance For Good Government even withdrew its endorsement of her.  A lot of the people her campaign had drawn into its corner began to feel like they had been used.

But then Fayard doubled down. Refusing to back off from the absurd assertions of her ads, she continued running them. Even more shockingly, she stood by them in person during the second debate at Dillard. Had Duke himself not been on the same stage ranting about Jews, Fayard's bald faced lie would have been the evening's low point by far.

There are people who insist, though, that Fayard's internal polling shows her morally indefensible strategy is working.  Even if they're correct (and we'll know soon enough) that won't necessarily put her in the runoff.  It will keep Campbell out, though.  I hope they're real proud of that "win" if they get it.

Given her, lack of experience in government, her poor positioning in the polls and her campaign's lack of substance, we've often asked why the heck Fayard is even in this race. Her behavior over the final weeks of the election suggest her sole purpose may be to deny Campbell a slot in the runoff.  I don't know enough to say why that is happening.  But I've tried to make it clear that the Fayards aren't exactly trustworthy.  And if it turns out they have friends of friends in common with friends of friends of another candidate well... a lot of these people have friends is all I'm saying. The Fayards are friends and neighbors with wealthy plutocrats who wanted New Orleans ethnically cleansed after Katrina.  That Caroline wants us to think of her now as the anti-Duke is a staggering insult.

Buying in/Buying out

David Duke doesn't have any friends, of course.  But, as we said, he does like money. Cue Clancy. 
Clancy DuBos, a political commentator who has covered Mr. Duke for decades, dismissed the media attention as “cheap headlines and click bait.”

“He’s not in this to win the Senate, he’s in this to make money,” he said.
I continue in my disappointment that no one else has asked about his angle in those terms. It's a natural thread to pull on given what we know about Duke.  He is and always has been a hustler. But he's only one of twenty something candidates here which makes him a hustler among hustlers. So while we're asking why Duke might have been bought out of a congressional race and into the Senate race, we should ask about some of these other transactions as well.

Duke isn't the only Republican angling for the hard core Trumpista vote.  And this has to be frustrating as hell for sandwich magnate John Fleming. Back when he announced his candidacy, on December 7, 2015 (a day that will live in infamy) Fleming had to figure he would be the most extreme right wing nut in the game. Fleming has devoted his tenure in Congress to making a name for himself as a petulant Tea Party insurgent. He has frothed frequently against Obama's health insurance reforms. His hard stance against reproductive rights is so out of touch with reality that he shared an Onion article about an "Abortionplex" thinking it was actual news. Most embarrassing to him and to the entire flood prone state of Louisiana was his vote against relief for victims of Hurricane Sandy.

And still Fleming can't corner the market on reactionary assholery.  Not with Duke hanging around. And not with Rob Maness flanking him among Trump supporters as well. Maness is more flamboyantly pro-gun and pro-life than Fleming but adds just a bit of the populist skepticism of Republican establishment policies with regard to war and Wall Street that puts him slightly more in tune with Trump's schizophrenic messaging than Fleming is.

The Fleming campaign actually attempted to buy Maness out of the race last month. Not unusual, that. What was unusual was Maness' choice not to take the money and instead run to the papers with the story. What is he getting that is better than whatever Fleming offered?  It's hard to say.  We did notice that he's had a few TV ads running paid for by something called "Warrior PAC."
Warrior PAC, which is being run out of California, is backing retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness. It has raised $10,000 from Bo Reily of the William B. Reily Company in New Orleans and has roughly that same amount in the bank. PAC director Robert San Luis said via email that Reily has also paid for polling. 
You may know the William B. Reily Company as Reily Foods, a century old New Orleans based grocery distributor. It owns several well-known brands most notably Luzianne tea, CDM coffee, and Blue Plate mayonnaise... which is amusing to those of us who have been in the habit of pronouncing Maness's name the way New Orleanians sometimes say, "Mah-nezz."  It's also funny to think that Maness didn't sell out to the Sandwich Man because he already had too much Mayonnaise money.

But here's the other thing about the Reilys.  They're not just a prominent New Orleans family. They are a Prominent New Orleans Business Family. To get a sense of this, please take a minute to peruse this January obituary of Boatner Reily III The CV portion of it really gains momentum toward the end. 
Reily also served on the New Orleans Aviation Board.

He attended Metairie Park Country Day School, Woodberry Forest School in Virginia, Yale University and Tulane, from which he graduated in 1950. He was a captain in the Rex organization for 10 years and reigned as Rex in 1982.

An avid runner, he started the Rex organization’s “royal run” around Audubon Park on Mardi Gras morning. In that inaugural run, he wore running shoes painted gold and decorated with colorful ribbons.

Reily was a major contributor to Tulane. The Reily Family Foundation contributed to the Tulane Hospital and Clinic for the construction of the Reily Foundation Pavilion, which opened in 1991, and was a major contributor to the Reily Student Recreation Center.

Cowen said he met Reily when Cowen was interviewing for the president’s job at Tulane.

“He asked incredibly perceptive questions and was extraordinarily kind in the delivery of those questions and listened with great intent,” he said.

Cowen said he often met with Reily in the first years of his tenure leading Tulane. “He provided great insight to New Orleans, its culture and the university,” he said.

He called Reily, the Reily family and its foundation “one of the pillars of Tulane University for generations. They’ve been incredibly generous philanthropically and with their time.”
Rex captain, GNOF founder, Tulane benefactor, personal friend of Scott fucking Cowen. That's all very pleasant.  One more thing about that, though.  While it's certainly believable that these blue bloods and their scions would be enthusiastic Tea Partiers, they prefer to identify as patricians.  The Reilys just don't have all that much in common with the typical Maness voter. In fact, they're actually a lot more like.. the Fayards. But we'll come back to that.

First let's note that one candidate actually was successfully bought out of the race.  His name is Abhay Patel. He dropped out on October 20. See, during the course of the campaign, Patel happened to make a friend.
But during campaign appearances, Patel had an opportunity to visit with (US Rep. Charles) Boustany. He found that he and the Lafayette Republican shared many of same pastimes – they both are avid readers who enjoy talking history – and both see the world through a similar political prism.

"Though we are not in the position we hoped to be in, I am committed to working tirelessly to ensure that we elect a conservative Republican to the United States Senate," Patel said of his endorsement of Boustany.

“I found him a very bright, very articulate young man,” Boustany said in an interview, recalling their first encounter at a Jefferson Parish GOP function.

“Abhay Patel’s passion and knowledge for conservative values, small government, and the Constitution have impressed me over that last several months. His campaign has been focused on ideas and substance rather than platitudes and lip service," Boustany said.

Patel, a lawyer, said he and Boustany talked about creating a committee that could advise Boustany on who to recommend for federal judges and prosecutors in Louisiana; what kind of positions a conservative lawyer would take.
How sweet. They got along famously. I hope Boustany kept the receipt.

Boustany in the Bayou

Oh yeah. Hey, by the way, Charles Boustany is also a candidate here. Did you forget?  He's not out of the running by any stretch. In addition to Patel's backing, he also enjoys the endorsement of the Times-Picayune as well as the always influential Jefferson Parish Sheriff Newell Normand. Stephanie Grace even gave him something of a compliment during the final debate when she described him as the "policy wonk in the mix."  Of course, if the policy you are wonking about involves protecting his friends' right to exploit virtual slave labor, or voting 60 times to repeal Obamacare, it's difficult to see that as a positive.

Boustany has two paths to the runoff. One of those would be going through Kennedy.  And he has tried this. His direct attack on Kennedy, this ad featuring an adorable pug and Kennedy's all around sliminess, was the best produced by any campaign. But, as we said at the outset of this post, Kennedy's slot is pretty well entrenched. If Boustany can't edge him out of the runoff, then Plan B is edge out everyone else. How would someone like Charles Boustany go about accomplishing that?

Well, first of all, let's remember that the seemingly mild mannered bespectacled Boustany is actually something of a heavy.  This is where Ethan Brown's Murder In the Bayou is instructive. I say this, not so much because of the book's allegation that Boustany may have been a client of some of the murdered prostitutes in Jennings. I can't really speak to the veracity of that. Having read the book, though, I'd say his connection to the Boudreaux Inn and its operators is more than just circumstantial.

We don't have time to get too far into it here but I do recommend the book. It's disappointing to see the political press brush this off. Their oft-repeated mantra that Brown's chapter on Boustany is "unsourced" is flat out untrue. Brown cites testimony by witnesses interviewed by the task force investigating the murders, ex-employees of the motel, a high profile drug dealer he interviews, as well as, yes, some anonymous sources.  But even anonymous sources are.. you know.. sources.  Unfortunately the media herd tends to steer clear of stuff like this while they're in campaign mode. Maybe they'll come back to it at some point.

What Brown clearly shows, in any case, is that Boustany field rep, Martin Guillory, was running the motel during the peak of its infamy and that he was familiar with the victims and several of the suspects. It's also obvious that Guillory was more than just a bit player in Boustany's world. And that's really the point here.
Boustany's power base in Southwest Louisiana is tied up with a decades-old system dominated by corrupt and brutal Sheriffs along the I-10 drug route. Brown's book focuses on Jeff Davis Parish but the problem is more widespread. Not only is it conceivable that the Congressman's political operation would connect to these criminals somewhere along the line, it's actually more difficult to imagine that it wouldn't.

Boustany is tough and shrewd. He's also backed by people who are themselves tough and shrewd. Newell Normand is one example. Sheriffs like this guy, I guess. He's also the only candidate who we're pretty sure has successfully manipulated the field. It's interesting that Patel can be bought out by Boustany but Maness can't be bought out by Fleming. Duke, perhaps the most corrupt person in the race, apparently can't be bought out by anybody.  Meanwhile the Fayards who just happen to be in the same category of plutocrat as the Maness-backing Reilys are stubbornly running interference against Foster Campbell.

It would be a stretch to tie all of that together into one conspiracy.  That's not really what I'm trying to say. It's just that sometimes the maneuverings of different but similarly interested parties accidentally work toward the same purpose. In this case, it is pretty neat the way all of that lines up in a way that could clear Fleming and Campbell out of Boustany's way, isn't it?  He might not make it, but Boustany certainly is an interesting character. Watch out for that guy.

Wednesday, November 02, 2016

Wednesday Night Debateball

Not sure how to handle this Senate debate tonight since it's playing opposite Game 7 of the Greatest World Series Of All Time. The debate only runs an hour this time. And it's on CSPAN. So you can watch it on demand later if that's how you want to hack it.  It's less fun to tweet that way, though.

But somebody has to pay attention to this debate.  With so few witnesses, it will be difficult enough as it is to verify that it's even happening.   
The only spectators allowed in 400-seat Georges Auditorium will be the production staff and five guests from each campaign.

“We just elected to have a closed production,” said Vicki Zimmerman, Raycom’s regional news director.

When asked if Duke was the reason, she said, “I’m not going to elaborate any further than I already did.”
As I'm typing this, I can look over at Twitter and see a group of Dillard students are at the campus now protesting against David Duke's inclusion. They seem particularly focused on University President Walter Kimbrough.  For his part,Kimbrough (AKA @HipHopPrez on Twitter) has questioned Duke's invitation himself.
Dillard University President Walter Kimbrough on Wednesday accused the host of the U.S. Senate debate of manipulating poll results to ensure white supremacist David Duke would qualify to increase TV ratings.

"Pretty clear polling rigged as (Donald) Trump would say for ratings," Kimbrough said in a tweet. "Any protests become part of reality show masquerading as news #WakeUp".
 
The debate, featuring six candidates, will be held at Dillard University, a historically black university. In an interview Kimbrough softened his stance about the poll being "rigged," but he maintained "it's a valid question to ask, when the latest poll comes out and (Duke is) at 2 percent," he said referencing a recent poll by the University of New Orleans. 
"It's a valid question to ask," he's just throwing that out there. But, hey, he's got a point.  Any debate that refuses to put totally legitimate candidate Kaitlin Marone on the stage has to be considered "rigged." The fact that they're trotting Duke out there is just further evidence that democracy is in peril.

I do hope the protesters make an effort to disrupt the debate.  Anything is better than having to watch that field of dead weight candidates recite their stupid scripts for an hour. Here's what that looked like last time, in case you missed it. An outburst or two from the crowd might liven that up.  Duke, himself, will just be an oddity. 

Speaking of which, here is an Esquire article out today about Duke's (mostly unwelcome, it seems) presence at this year's Deutsches Haus Oktoberfest.
It was 6 p.m. on Friday, October 21, and Duke was late. Jan, a young, white cop with a crewcut, was standing stoically near a beer vendor when I asked if he'd seen the candidate. "Have you seen him lately?" he shot back, his eyebrows raising. He says it seems like Duke has had a lot of work done, "but it's not good work. He looks like he just got out of a coffin, he looks like a corpse, that's the nicest way I could put it."

He wasn't making fun of Duke when he said this. He wore a pained expression and a faraway gaze, as if recalling some kind of science-fiction trauma he couldn't quite make sense of. "He's a weird-looking person," he said, shaking his head, "I couldn't get past that." When Duke was here last week, Jan explained, a couple of his colleagues talked to him, but he couldn't stomach it, so he just walked away. He sighed. "I don't know how you're gonna do it."
The good news is after this election is over, Duke will have to go back to his crypt and stay there until the next comet comes by or whatever. In the meantime, he's out there grossing people out. But that's nothing out of the ordinary in 2016. 

Regarding that, the Esquire reporter also spoke to Edwin Edwards who had the following to say about Duke and about how is appeal relates to Donald Trump's.
"He's a very intelligent fellow, if a person with his philosophy can be intelligent," Edwards told me over coffee in his home office in Gonzales. Edwards is 89 now and five years out of prison, with a 38-year-old wife, Trina, who he met while behind bars (she wrote him letters), a three-year-old son, Eli, conceived using his frozen sperm, and two donkey-sized collies, Brooke and Belle. "We didn't have a very acrimonious election," he told me. When he was asked at the time if he and Duke had anything in common, Edwards famously replied, "we both have been wizards beneath the sheets."

"When he ran against me and whenever he was running, he always capitalized not just on people who didn't like the race problem, but people who didn't like government, as Trump is doing," Edwards told me. "He has captured, in my opinion, the attitude of many people in America who just are fed up with the government."
That's a very important point by Edwards.  The Duke phenomenon in the 1990s wasn't just some freak show.  It represented a massive section of the GOP coalition. I wrote a longish thing about this last January, in fact. Back then David Duke didn't present himself as some "alt-right" character. He ran as a Republican and tailored his rhetoric to dovetail with the platform tenets of the party's mainstream.  This was remarkably easy to do. That fact, moreso than Duke's past (or "baggage" as Steve Scalise termed it) was the most disturbing and revelatory aspect of his political career. 

Similarly, Trump's success exposes many uncomfortable truths about the present day Republican party that aren't going to just disappear after Trump loses next week.  All the "serious" people are mortified by Trump, of course. But here's Oyster writing a few months ago to remind everyone of the seemingly obvious point that Trump did, in fact, win the nomination.
Sure, in retrospect, the 'conditions' were right. After all, outsiders Trump/Cruz/Carson garnered most of the primary vote. The anti-establishment sentiment was there. Plus, the GOP was due for a comeuppance, as it had played with fire for too long, having whipped its fringe elements into fury (over the existential peril of illegal immigration) and never really 'delivering.' There's also widespread anxiety due to macro-economic structural faults in our late-stage capitalism. (Will we ever grow again at a fast clip without a bubble? A discussion for another time).

But don't let anyone tell you this was inevitable or obvious in hindsight. For Trump, an unelected rookie, to successfully reinvent the rules of national campaigns on his own terms, overcome apparent blunder after blunder, and crush establishment choices like Jeb, Walker and Rubio as well as maverick Ted Cruz (the conservative's conservative)... that's just bananas. Not to mention that party mandarins, conservative media 'thought leaders', Super Pacs, and even other candidates allied to defeat him. Trump was heavily outspent in early primaries, but he won anyway.

How are we to understand this?

Well, we'll take some time to unpack this important moment in American political history. Let's quell the urge to understand too quickly or reflexively fit Trump into old models or agendas.

Tonight, I will offer one analytical tool that I think may be useful. Ask yourselves— would Trump have been successful if he eliminated the xenophobic and racialist appeals in his rhetoric and (scant) policy talk? My view is no. He could've changed almost anything else about his platform and candidacy (and often did). But the blunt warnings of Mexican invaders, thieving Asians, and the black president in league(?) with foreign terrorist cells... etc were the MOST vital components to his successful primary run.
Oyster is telling us two things there, actually. He's telling the campaign's success is due to both the the "conditions" present in the electorate and the unique qualities (I hesitate to say talents) possessed by the candidate.  This is the case in any election. But what all of this also says is that in 2016, the Donald Trump campaign moved enough Republicans to the polls to make him the nominee.

In my view the questions that raises about the party and about the state of U.S. politics this year than it does about the freak show are more significant and enduring than the freak show of Trump's personage. It's important that we don't remove the character from its context.

Otherwise we end up with idiot Democrats who run ads based on the fact that her opponent was once physically touched by one of the freaks and expect voters to impute some sort of meaning from that. Which is why Oktoberfest was a dangerous place to be this year. (This is from the Esquire piece.)
Harbison was far from the only one shooting sickened looks in Duke's direction at the festival. When he tried to shake the hand of Catherine Farnsworth Gensler, a 53-year-old teacher from Duke's hometown, she glared up at him like he was some combination of an ISIS fighter and a Maroon 5 band member. She refused to extend hers, but he grabbed it anyway. "I don't support him," she told me, and then she turned to him. "I don't support you, I'm sorry." Duke seemed startled. "What?" he asked. "I don't support you," she said. "That's fine, that's alright," he told her. "But I'm gonna get a lot of votes. I think I'm gonna win this time."
We can only hope Ms. Gensler never runs for office against Caroline Fayard because that will definitely come back to haunt her if she does.

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Any of these guys could lose

In case you missed this week's Senate debate, here is that.



I wrote an itty bit about the Senate race on Tuesday and I'm sure there will be more before election day. (We also got into it a little on the last Hunkerdowncast.) But here are just a couple of quick notes on the debate to keep things short.

First, we already knew this was a lame field. But it took seeing (some of) the candidates interacting on stage together to show just how weak each is in his or her own way.  Holding aside each candidate's fundamentals in terms of geographic or ideological base, name recognition, etc. and just looking at them as campaigners, they're all pretty bad to downright terrible. All things being equal, any of them could lose to any other. Anyway, here's the quick and dirty.

1) Caroline Fayard, as she has for much of the campaign, looked unready. Her responses sounded, not only like she was reciting a script, but also like she was nervously rushing to get through it. The saving grace there is that anything she says is wholly devoid of substance anyway. Her position on the state's lawsuit against the oil and gas industry continues to be weak tea. When she wasn't mumbling around about the futility of legal action, Fayard said she plans to assemble "a coalition of the willing" to fight coastal loss. That she would describe a project by invoking George W. Bush's phrase used to sell his Iraq invasion to doesn't instill much confidence. We don't know which staffer wrote that for her. We hope whoever it is is paid well.

2) Foster Campbell is, of this bunch, the candidate who comes nearest to getting the key issues right. He's the only candidate who backs the coastal lawsuit. In fact, he's the only one willing to fully accept the science on climate change being caused by human activity. (Although, we'd love to hear him try to say the word, anthropogenic out loud.)

But there's a reason Campbell has never been a successful statewide candidate.  He's a crappy campaigner who can't fend off even the most obvious attacks.  During the direct question part of the debate, sandwich magnate John Flemming attacked Campbell with a standard "guns and fetuses" type question tying Campbell (perhaps unfairly) to national Democrats' positions on abortion and gun control.  Foster could only boast of owning 36 shotguns in response leaving voters to determine whether they think that's a pointless dodge or a disturbing image.

3) Charles Boustany is boring.  This may work for him as much as it does against him.  For one thing, it helps him present as the least amateurish among the rough edged doofuses populating this very weak field. Because of this he can talk convincingly about his ability to "get results" without anyone remarking on the fact that those "results" mean the regular package of deregulation and favors for oil and chemical companies or trade and immigration policy that favors employers who rely on virtual slave labor.  It also might work to minimize the damage done by his having been linked to a salacious murder and prostitution scandal in Jeff Davis Parish. Voters may have difficulty processing that association if they aren't convinced the candidate has much of a pulse to begin with.

4) John Fleming is trying to corner the Generic Tea Party market. But that's not easy for him to do if he can't bribe Rob Maness out of the race OR draw enough support to keep freaking David Duke from qualifying to appear in debates. By the way, has Fleming considered trying to buy Duke out?  We're pretty sure he will take the money.

5) John Neely Kennedy is the smarmiest, phoniest, most despicable person, not only on that debate stage, but possibly in the entire state of Louisiana. He's a textbook example of what happens when a social incompetent tries to do politics. This is the only person we know of capable of inserting himself into the Boustany prostitution scandal and looking like the grosser person in the process. He is Louisiana's Ted Cruz.

During the debate Kennedy railed against "bureaucracy and regulations" before rattling off a list of regulations he would propose in order to reign that in. I suppose that is not surprising from someone who spent the better part of his tenure as Treasurer demagoguing against rather than honestly trying to solve the state's perpetual budget crisis.   In the process he has made enemies of just about everyone.  But he asks us to mistake that for a sign of personal integrity.

His ads are laden with this sort of condescension. This one got attention for a bizarre "love is the answer but you ought to keep a handgun" riddle. But it's the incoherence of the policy assertions that really serves as Kennedy's signature.  In the ad he says, "I believe gubmint tries to do too much," one breath before saying government "needs to enforce its immigration laws." Here is one where he threatens to bomb the hypothetical goats belonging to anyone who might join ISIS. That none of this makes any sense is evidence that he doesn't think the voters are very smart.  Maybe that's a fair assumption, but it's the obviousness of the insult that causes him to miss. 

His delivery is overlain with an affected folksy manner that sort of calls to mind an absurdist version of Ross Perot. He smacks his lips disgustingly and blinks approximately 50 times a second. All politicians are shameless liars. But the ones who voters can viscerally sense are lying every time they open their mouths are the most profoundly talentless. Only a hack as tone deaf as John Kennedy could produce a line as unfunny as his much talked about "week killer" bit.  The more Kennedy appears on TV, the less people are going to like him.

Of course that might matter more if any of his opponents weren't as glaringly weak as each is.  Any of them is bad enough to lose to him.  

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Tuesday Night Debateball

(Some of) Your 2016 Louisiana U.S. Senate Candidates take the field tonight in Ruston. The debate is carried by LPB and you can (probably) stream it here. I suppose this means we should note a few recent developments in the race this week to get ourselves hyped up.

First of all, there is this JMC poll out. More than anything else, it appears to show a little Campbellmentum.

campbellmentum

There are people (real people... seriously reputable people.. not just me) out there who have been speculating for months about the possibility of sneaking two Democrats into the runoff somehow. Theoretically, this still might might be ever so slightly mathematically possible if we assume enough of that 16% undecided vote are Democrats.  It's hard to know just what the electorate will look like in this crazy year. But we do have this tantalizing take on the scenario via this week's Gambit cover story.
That outcome would be a nightmare for the GOP, and the chances of that nightmare becoming a reality increase as front-running Republicans play it safe on the issues in order to protect their respective bases around the state. For example, all are pro-life, pro-gun, pro-oil, anti-Obama, anti-Hillary Clinton, anti-union and, of course, pro-Trump — though some may be less enthusiastic in their support of the GOP presidential nominee after his latest pronouncements.

  The same could be said of the leading Democrats, except there are only two of them to divide the 40-42 percent of the electorate that reliably votes "D" in national elections. On the Republican side, at least four major candidates — plus at least two more with 5-8 percent of the vote on average — will be competing for the other 58-60 percent of the vote. Add to that another 5 to 8 percent gobbled up by the 15 or more also-rans and it's easy to see how "jungle" is an apt political metaphor in Louisiana this year.
One thing else to consider here is this particular national election could skew the electorate slightly more Dem than usual given waning enthusiasm for Trump among "moderate" (I know, I know, just go with it) Republicans combined with the much stronger and more professional "ground game" operation on behalf of Hillary and the general understanding... even among Trumpistas... that the election is pretty much over at this point.   Given all of that, it is conceivable that the Democrats get a significant edge in turnout. Consider also that the Republicans who do turn out are likely to be  Trump true believers who split more of their vote somewhere along the Duke-Flemming-Maness end of the field and you can still sort of see that Double D runoff happening.

Of course it's a long shot.  For what it's worth, JMC's own analysts  don't think it's worth mentioning in their narrative.  According to them, the demographic trends don't look favorable for Fayard.
Four candidates now have a viable path to the December runoff. Democrat Foster Campbell essentially has clinched one of the runoff spots, while Republicans John Fleming, John Kennedy, and Charles Boustany are competing for the second runoff spot.

Foster Campbell is essentially a lock for the runoff because his lead among black voters has expanded from 33-24% to 48-18% over Fayard; if undecided “leaners” are included, his lead among this demographic expands to 52-18%
Meanwhile, as for the Republican front-runners, there's a bit of news about them this week as well.  Hillariously, NOLA.com/The Times-Picayune endorsed Boustany. Their editorial board writes that Boustany  is "poised to play a significant role in reforming the Affordable Care Act."  Actually he wants to repeal it and has boasted of the 60 times he voted to do just that. They also praise his work to "stop China from unfairly subsidizing shrimp to undercut U.S. producers."  But they don't mention his work to help his friends in the Louisiana seafood processing industry to "compete" with imports via the use of virtual slave labor.  But oh well.  Of course, we all remember last year when the T-P endorsed David Vitter for Governor. Maybe they just like candidates who prefer a certain kind of lifestyle.

Speaking of David Vitter, today's Stephanie Grace column is about the similarities in style and strategy between last year's failed Vitter campaign and this year's John Kennedy operation. 
But with Kennedy facing tough competition from fellow Republicans Charles Boustany and John Fleming for a spot in the December runoff, he's clearly hoping the plan that helped Vitter ward off GOP rivals Jay Dardenne and Scott Angelle will work for him as well.

The strategy that Vitter's affiliated Super PAC used, its executive director Joel DiGrado explained at a post-gubernatorial election discussion at LSU’s Manship School of Mass Communication, was to make sure that neither of the other Republicans emerged as the single alternative in voters' minds. So when one seemed to be rising in the polls, the group would target that person for attack.

“Every week, we had to reassess who we’re beating up,” said DiGrado, who likened the exercise to playing “whack-a-mole on a balance beam.”

Kennedy also has an affiliated Super PAC, called ESAFund, It's ostensibly independent even though most of its money came from Kennedy's state campaign fund, and it just so happens to be run by Vitter's former campaign manager, Kyle Ruckert. And it too is running harsh attacks against fellow Republicans, with an obvious eye toward keeping either of Kennedy's main GOP rivals from edging him out or joining him in an all-GOP runoff, when he'd clearly prefer to face a Democrat.

This, of course, is the part of the plan that worked for Vitter. His Super PAC's brutal attacks against Dardenne and Angelle may have kept either from catching up to him at the polls.
But being a big aggressive asshole to Dardenne and Angelle came back to haunt Vitter in the runoff when both of those guys were all too eager to hit back at him. Even at the height of his power, it was pretty much a given that Everybody Hated David Vitter. But they were also afraid of him. That worked for a long time. Until it didn't.  Everybody may hate John Kennedy too before this is over but I don't think anybody is all that scared of him.

Anyway, happy debating, kids.

Update: Sorry. I missed this little intrigue today between fringe Trumpista Rob Maness and The Man Who Would Be King Of All Fringe Trumpistas John Flemming. 
Louisiana Senate candidate Rob Maness said Tuesday he was asked to drop out of the race and throw his support to GOP opponent John Fleming in return for significant funding in a future race.

Maness told The Advocate that he met Paul Dickson over coffee at Abita Roasting Company in Madisonville on Monday afternoon. There, Dickson, who identified himself as the person “running the John Fleming PAC” and a decision maker with the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority, offered support to Maness’ future political endeavors, he said.

“He told me that he would provide opportunities for my future, if I left the race for Senate and endorsed John Fleming. But, if I didn't do it before (Tuesday night’s statewide televised) debate, I'd be finished as a politician,” Maness said. “Although I'm not naive, the unethical threats and power play by the thugs behind the John Fleming campaign against me was shocking even by Louisiana standards.”
It's certainly a believable story. But then again, Maness is kind of a nut so who knows? Also, isn't there usually a private investigator filming surreptitiously whenever these little coffee shop meetings happen?  Maybe a tape will turn up.

Wednesday, August 03, 2016

John Kennedy's unusual homeopathic remedy

At a Senate candidates' forum today, John Kennedy offered an unusual health care alternative.
Kennedy said he thinks the best days for the U.S. are ahead.

"But not if we keep doing the same thing we have been doing for the past eight years," he said. "I would rather drink weed killer than support Obamacare."
OK well that's nice. Meanwhile the Democratic candidates are said in this article to favor "fixing" rather than repealing Obamacare. But they don't tell us anything about what fixing it means.

We're probably  not going to "repeal and replace" the ACA any time soon. But it will have to be revised in order for it to remain tenable. This could mean revisiting the so called "public option" so many of us wanted to see in the original legislation.
“Public programs like Medicare often deliver care more cost-effectively by curtailing administrative overhead and securing better prices from providers,” Obama writes in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

“The public plan did not make it into the final legislation. Now, based on experience with the ACA, I think Congress should revisit a public plan to compete alongside private insurers in areas of the country where competition is limited,” writes the president.

The new embrace from the president also comes amid what appears to be a concerted push by the Democratic Party to rally around the public option.

It’s a shift that reflects how the party has tilted leftward during the Obama years.

Hillary Clinton emphasized a public option in an announcement Saturday that was interpreted as a play for supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who ran a surprisingly strong campaign against her for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Sanders has pushed even further for a government-run, “single-payer” system.
When the next fight over Obamacare reaches the Senate, this will be a key part of the argument. It would be nice to hear more from our Democratic candidates about where they might stand. Otherwise they're offering about as much substance as Kennedy is.