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Saturday, July 06, 2013

Tony Blair is "a strong supporter of democracy but..."

Shorter Tony Blair: They elected some people we don't like so now we have to teach them how to do democracy better.
I am a strong supporter of democracy. But democratic government doesn't on its own mean effective government. Today, efficacy is the challenge. When governments don't deliver, people protest. They don't want to wait for an election.

In fact, as Turkey and Brazil show, they can protest even when, on any objective basis, countries have made huge progress. But as countries move from low to middle income status, the people's expectations rise. They want quality services, better housing, good infrastructure, especially transport. And they will fight against any sense that a clique at the top is barring their way.

This is a sort of free democratic spirit that operates outside the convention of democracy that elections decide the government. It is enormously fuelled by social media, itself a revolutionary phenomenon. And it moves very fast in precipitating crisis. It is not always consistent or rational. A protest is not a policy, or a placard a programme for government. But if governments don't have a clear argument with which to rebut the protest, they're in trouble.
As it turns out, though, we can really only determine who is "in trouble" according to whichever side the army happens to be on. In 2003 there were as many as 2 million people marching in the UK in opposition to the Iraq invasion. Tony Blair sent the troops anyway saying, unpopularity was "sometimes the price of leadership and the cost of conviction."  The consequences for Morsi were a bit greater than just unpopularity. The difference is sometimes the army goes where you send it and sometimes it comes to get you.

But okay now, according to Blair,  the West can't be shy to "engage" as much as possible until everybody finally elects the right people.
At its crudest, we can't afford for Egypt to collapse. So we should engage with the new de facto power and help the new government make the changes necessary, especially on the economy, so they can deliver for the people. In that way, we can also help shape a path back to the ballot box that is designed by and for Egyptians.
That last line must be one of those of Sphinx riddles you hear so much about. Anyway, that whole "engagement" thing shouldn't be too hard seeing as how we pay for the entity that makes all the decisions in the first place.

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