High Stakes

Adrastos is channeling Woodward and Bernstein... (or is it Angus Lind?)... by citing an unamed source who appears to confirm Oyster's theory that the State GOP is out to submarine the Landrieu campaign in order that they may have Nagin around as a kind of chocolate straw man to kick around during the upcoming governor's election. I think there's something to this theory.. but only insofar as I think it accurately depicts an opportunistic power play by louisiana conservatives who see an opportunity, not just to win one election, but to fundamentaly change the balance of power in Louisiana politics for generations to come.

In his 2004 book, Inside the Carnival: Unmasking Louisiana Politics, LSU political science professor Wayne Parent describes Louisiana's unique political culture as the product of a tense and volatile competition among three equally powerful groups: North Louisiana Protestant Europeans, South Louisiana Catholic Europeans, and African-Americans.

Louisiana politics is a game of heavy competition, and the first feature of the Louisiana political culture is a disorderly, unstable democracy among three distinct, unmistakable ethnic groups shaped through early immigration patterns. The three main ethnic groups are not significant because they define three voting blocs. They often do not.

Parent goes on to cite historical examples of unstable alliances between any two of these groups against the third in various combinations before returning to this point.

These are ethnic groups with strong group consciousness and a lack of trust in other groups for extended periods of time - thus, the volatility. The existence of these three well-defined, highly self-conscious groups in Louisiana always keeps Louisiana politics unsteady and on guard. These groups keep the political footing in Louisiana as soft as its swampy terrain. More than any other characteristic of the state, they create a culture that is volatile, unsettled, and always highly competitive.

The proposed ethnic cleansing of New Orleans strikes at the heart of the black power base in Louisiana. State conservatives know this. In the city, Ray Nagin continues to enjoy the support of white wealthy New Orleanians who want to see New Orleans shrunk from a major American city to a quieter, whiter, more exclusive resort town. Like Ms. Boulet for example whose endorsement of Nagin yesterday included this gem of a quote

Though she wasn't offered a job at City Hall and said she doesn't want one, Boulet has been hard at work on several projects for the Nagin administration, including refining the city's emergency-preparedness plan and crafting a plan to turn a shuttered public housing development into a new subdivision. She would not say which development.

"Ray has committed to me to allow people like me to participate in the city's future," she said during a news conference at Table One, a Magazine Street restaurant managed in part by Nagin campaign treasurer David White.

Nagin is also gathering the support of Republicans statewide because they see in these machinations an opportunity to strike a serious blow to the political clout of the City of New Orleans and the African-American constituency statewide. Yes, the Governor's race is part of this calculus but the long-term ramifications are much larger.