Even more interesting was the fact that Nagin saw fit to give what only can be described as shout outs to Joe Cannizaro and Boise Bollinger... the plutocrats who have always and will now continue to own him. The gentry made a mistake in abandoning their puppet. They underestimated his political savvy. And now they will come crawling back. Expect nearly all of Forman's money and support to go to Nagin in the runoff. Half of Couhig's vote were really Forman people who were horrified at their candidate's limpness and jumped ship. They will go back to Nagin. The other half of Couhig's vote is comprised of angry white male mouth breathers. They will not vote in the runoff.
Much has been made over the last thirty years or so about the success of the Republican party in using racial fear and animosity to get poor and working class whites to vote against their own economic interest. I believe that Ray Nagin has stumbled upon the troubling fact that poor and middle class black voters can be similarly misled. If he continues to succeed in exploiting this fact, he is unbeatable. Previously I have pointed out the uncanny similarities between Ray Nagin and George Bush. I believe this comparisson is still valid. Nagin and Bush dance and misspeak in order to amuse, distract and divide the electorate while the big money movers behind them make off with the spoils.
Landrieu will lose big because he will fail to call Nagin on any of this. If he still wants to be Governor and if he wants his sister to continue to be a Senator he will know better than to take on the Cannizaros of the world directly. They will support his opponent in this race and he will take it quietly. Mitch will get none of the Couhig vote and little of the Forman vote which leaves him with his base of middle and lower class whites and blacks... but Nagin has managed to poach too much of the black vote. Landrieu has sold himself as a racial healer. In this runoff he will face the enormous challenge of asking working class voters to see through a racial smokescreen and vote against their real oppressors. Democrats have been failing at this for decades. I can't imagine that could possibly change now. Still Mitch has one chance to try... and his margin for error is... oh never mind.
Other stuff:
- Kimberly Butler recieved 793 votes to Peggy Wilson's 772: 1565 people I hope never to be trapped in a room with.
- Arnie Fielkow has surprised a lot of people and pulled Jackie Clarkson into a runoff. He has a real shot to beat her.. provided his handlers keep him off TV as much as possible. He comes off as a stilted dorky outsider whereas Clarkson, regardless of your opinion of her, looks and sounds like a New Orleanian. That means a lot to voters around here.
- Here's why IQ was a bad idea. Now that most of the candidates have gone down, what does this do to the movement to consolidate the assessor's offices? If I'm a state legislator looking at these results, I may now be less inclined to pursue something that has been demonstrated to have so little popular support. Plus will Nancy Marshall now quit? If she doesn't does this mean she has misrepresented herself to the voters? Should she be recalled?
Something I ate at FQF yesterday gave me a nasty case of food poisoning. I have no idea what the culprit was because I tried so many things. I also can't be very bright because I'm right back at it today. The run for the chocolate is on. See y'all in the runoff.
Update: More from Oyster, who not only knows good political analysis when he sees it, but also pre-debunks the inevitable "Couhig voters killed Forman" myth.
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