Some numbers

I'm just trying to get an idea of the scope of this thing. These are early guesses and the storm isn't even over yet so this will change. It will likely change for the worse.

WaPo reports officials estimate some 30,000 people will end up in shelters as a result of the flood. This morning, USA Today reported a count of 5,500 so far.

Early this morning, FEMA director Brock Long said they're expecting 450,000 to register for federal assistance.  That's probably a low guess.  But for comparison sake, it's already roughly half of the 916,000 individual assistance requests resulting from Katrina and Rita combined.

Then there are the costs of rebuilding which will almost certainly become the subject of some sort of political standoff as congress goes to war with itself and the Trump administration over a number of budgetary issues next month.

The federal Disaster Relief Fund administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency had a balance of $3.8 billion at the end of July, of which $1.6 billion is already obligated, according to the most recent federal report. Trump declared Harvey a major disaster Friday, making Texas victims eligible for relief from that fund. But with damage estimates already rising into the tens of billions of dollars, the fund’s balance is almost certainly inadequate.

“All of our plans on disaster recovery are premised with the federal government coming in with a big chunk of short-term FEMA money and then a big chunk of long-term bailout money,” said Edward Richards, director of the Louisiana State University Climate Change Law and Policy Project. “With the budget coming up and the debt ceiling coming up, you could easily see this getting absolutely lost in the mix.”

One senior Democratic aide suggested that Harvey could help GOP leaders avert a government shutdown at the end of September, even though Trump threatened the shutdown as recently as last week. Adding hurricane relief to a spending bill that is otherwise unpopular among Republicans, the aide said, could help win GOP votes.

The White House had proposed an 11 percent cut to FEMA’s budget as a way to free up more money for the military. But GOP leaders had signaled they would ignore that request — at least for the next few months — and keep FEMA funding basically flat. They could come under pressure to boost FEMA’s budget, however, particularly because the Atlantic hurricane season is only about half over, and there could be more dangerous storms.

A related issue is the status of the National Flood Insurance Program. Its federal authorization expires Sept. 30, and it is more than $24 billion in debt. The program has a statutory borrowing limit of about $30 billion, and numerous new claims — which congressional aides say are likely post-Harvey — probably will require congressional action to ensure there is enough funding.