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Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Winning

Governor PBJ and Mayor Nagin are winning the PR battle of this Hurricane Season. Our highest profile representatives of state and local officialdom learned after the Federal Flood that the most important thing to do when a hurricane approaches South Louisiana is to make sure your ass is covered politically.

Specifically, the representatives of local officialdom sought to insulate themselves against the most stinging political criticisms leveled against them by the Right during the Katrina aftermath. Thus Ray Nagin made sure everyone witnessed that he was sufficiently insistent that everyone flee the storm well ahead of time. Thus Nagin also made sure everyone knew he would be extremely tough on looters. Thus Nagin and Jindal made sure everyone knew that this time every bus would be put to use.

During the frantic hours of Unnecessary Evac 2008... before the storm hit and while everyone's attention was most clearly focused on what was coming out of the pols' mouths... Jindal did an excellent job of appearing composed and conversant with facts as he crammed in as much irrelevant-but-nonetheless-impressive-sounding data as possible about the particular capabilities of each available helicopter and which unit of which branch of which service was planning to fly around in each helicopter and at which point flying around in helicopters might become necessary.

This is the sort of thing that makes a positive political impression on certain people; the appearance of "steady leadership" coupled with an ability to memorize and recite facts. Not being much of an elitist authority-humping, minutiae-obsessed, technocrat-nerd myself, I'm somewhat less impressed with this kind of showmanship. Instead, I tend to be the sort of person who, while sitting in an Unnecessary I-59 clusterfuck listening to officials congratulate each other on the radio about how great a job they are doing, tends to think, "You know what? These fuckers, they lie" But the lying wasn't what was important. What was important was the timing of the lying as it framed the political narrative during the crucial moments so that, even during the subsequent ugliness, everyone would still be talking about how well things were going.

And how well did things go? For those of us who were able to evacuate in our own private vehicles, things went pretty much the same as they did during Katrina. We packed up our shit and sat in traffic for 18 hours until we found somewhere to crash and watch from afar as Jim Cantore and Anderson Cooper tried not to look too gleeful while everything dear to us was threatened with oblivion. The only difference is, there was slightly less actual oblivion involved this time. (Or at least the oblivion that did occur wasn't quite as politically sensitive as it could have been) But for most of those who evacuated on their own, there were a few uncomfortable days followed by a moment of outrage over the "tiered" reentry plan and then a Saints game. It was bad, but not as bad as Katrina because the city did not flood.

For those who were not in position to evacuate and return on their own, things went a bit differently.

Hundreds of coastal residents using state-provided evacuation transportation arrived at north Louisiana shelters on Aug. 30 and 31 to find the facilities short of toilets and without showers. The bathroom facilities eventually arrived, with the private contractor saying the state agency did not order the portable showers until Sept. 1, the day Gustav arrived.


For all the time the Mayor and the Governor spent patting each other on the back, their "Assisted Evacuation Plan" was very nearly an epic failure mitigated only by the fact that the evacuees could be returned to their homes in relative short order.... however uncomfortably this task was accomplished. But despite this... and despite the Mayor's "Special Rate" gaffe last week... both the Mayor and the Governor are winning politically this Hurricane Season.

Despite Nagin's goofiness and the criticism he took over the reentry plan, what matters most politically is that when Gustav threatened, Ray Nagin went on television and said the looters were going to Angola. That lie, being a well-timed lie, is what will make the most enduring impression. Plus, Nagin was sharp enough to take advantage of the "emergency" in order to remove inconvenient obstacles to his precious wrecking balls. It isn't perfect for Nagin, but it's good enough.

For Jindal, it's nearly perfect. PBJ has pulled off the remarkable trick of receiving full public credit for his hands-on leadership and in-depth knowledge of emergency helicopter operations while somehow avoiding any responsibility for the activities the entire State Department of Social Services. How does he do that? It's partially in the timing. Jindal knows to play the man in charge role while everyone is afraid, and to play the outraged outsider while everyone is angry. Recall that in addition to his public dissatisfaction with the DSS performance, Jindal also made a point to berate Entergy in the press after the storm. Don't expect much to come that, however.

But the true political gold here lies in the self-correcting power of class prejudice. In the eyes of most Louisiana voters, the poor performance of the DSS in sheltering evacuees as well as distributing food stamps is really just another invitation to blame poor people for being poor. One need only spend a few minutes with local talk radio or with the NOLA.com commenters to understand this fully. So since nobody really cares that "assisted evacuees" are treated well or that they are returned home in a timely fashion... if at all.. or that anyone ever receives food stamps, Jindal gets enough space to criticize the performance of his own administration with no real political consequence for that poor performance.

Congratulations, Mayor Nagin and Governor Jindal. This Hurricane Season was beautifully played.

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