Deputy cousins

If you follow local politics you've probably already met the Mayor's Cousin Gary.  He's become an occasional vanity candidate in recent election cycles. Most recently, Cousin Gary challenged (sort of) Congressman Cedric Richmond in what was less a political campaign that it was a series of dueling  lawsuits.  In 2012, he ran near the back of a crowded City Council  At-Large field distinguishing himself by his creative plan to rid the city of its hated traffic cameras.

"When I say we're going to get rid of those traffic cameras, those traffic cameras are going to be removed," he said. "I am going to personally remove them if I have to personally go get a garbage truck from the department of garbage and go run them over with a garbage truck."

The Landrieus are a publicly Catholic family so naturally there are a lot of them.  Gary isn't the only one prone to road rage.

Kenneth Landrieu, a cousin of Mayor Mitch Landrieu who was arrested Monday in an alleged road rage incident last week in the Lower Garden District, said Wednesday that he acted out of fear when, according to police, he whipped out a gun and drew a bead on another driver.

Landrieu, 52, faces counts of aggravated assault with a firearm and impersonating a peace officer, a lesser count that he said he expects to be dismissed.

Cousin Kenneth also brandished some sort of badge that he has for some reason that is unclear.

Landrieu, a first cousin to the mayor and the brother of former congressional hopeful Gary Landrieu, said that until the incident Thursday, he was, “as far as I know,” a commissioned reserve officer in good standing at a local law enforcement agency. The 6th District officers who arrested him “knew or should have known that,” he said.

He refused, however, to disclose the agency for which he volunteers but said he turned in his badge pending the outcome of the criminal case.

The Advocate hadn't pinned down which agency had given Cousin Kenneth his badge when that story ran.  I know we've got like 700 Deputy Mayors running around already. Do they have badges?

Anonymous donor

I'm all for taking the statues down but if you're the public defender's office today you might be thinking hey...

It will cost about $125,000 to remove four controversial monuments to Confederate officials or a white supremacist uprising from their perches in New Orleans, and an anonymous donor has offered to foot the bill, according to Mayor Mitch Landrieu’s top aide.

The one-page report from Landrieu’s chief administrative officer, Andy Kopplin, was forwarded to the City Council this week along with similar short letters from other city department heads.

Best case scenario: We're screwed

The question posed to these teams of engineers was, if you could have all of the money and cooperation from everyone you could ask for, how would you respond to Louisiana's coastal loss? 

The mouth of the Mississippi River should be moved north to Port Sulphur or English Turn and communities south of those points eventually will have to be abandoned if other parts of southeast Louisiana are to have a future into the next century.

Those were among the more startling recommendations proposed by the winning teams of coastal engineering and sustainability experts from around the world who took part in Changing Course, a design competition sponsored by Louisiana that kicked off in 2013.

Key features of the plans would represent dramatic departures from the state’s up-and-running Coastal Master Plan, a $50-billion 50-year vision that has received generally high praise from the scientific community. Experts said their recommended changes should be taken seriously because subsidence and sea level rise will make many existing communities indefensible in the coming decades.

Dream scenario: Cities abandoned. Land lost forever to the sea.

But, as we know, this is as much a political problem as it is an engineering problem so the way it really plays out is going to be much worse than that.  Well, for most of us, anyway.

Another flaw in the contest's design is the assumption that the problem to be solved is "How do we save what's left of the land and the communities it supports?" The actual problem being worked on and planned for is "How do we protect wealth as the land inevitably sinks away and these communities are destroyed?" That's actually being handled quite well.

Just a couple of examples I can remember noting just off the top of my head:

There was this story last year where we learned about Billy Nungesser's plans to "save" what's left of Plaquemines Parish by turning it over to chemical processors and heavy industry because that's who can make money there now.

This offshore "megaport" project is actually a scam to raise money off of EB-5 visas. But the pretense is preparing industry to continue even after the land has dissolved.

Again, that's just two things I thought of while typing this out. But the point is we aren't going to "solve" coastal loss in some grand project where we all work together to find the best outcome that preserves the general welfare.  What's actually going to happen is whatever wealth can be extracted from the area while it still exists will be. And the goal of whatever aspects of the Master Plan end up being implemented will be to facilitate future wealth extraction.  Nothing else is of any relevance.

Gentrification is a policy choice

A couple of weeks ago we explained that the city's new "inclusionary zoning"(sort of) approach to the affordable housing problem is at best ineffectual and at worst an insulting token meant to enable more luxury development.

CityLab is nonetheless credulous enough to give us credit for trying.

A new ordinance passed by the city hopes to bridge this gap. Under an amendment to the city’s comprehensive zoning ordinance signed into law on September 9, developers can now take advantage of density bonuses awarded to those who include below-market units when building multifamily dwellings (apartment/condo buildings).

Again, the ordinance the city passed is either laughably ineffectual or, more likely, plain disingenuous depending out how fraudulent one believes one's representatives to be.  I lean toward very fraudulent but your impression may vary somewhat. I tend not to give any of them credit for being too stupid to understand what they're doing.  For example, Latoya, here, demonstrates that she understands the problem pretty well.

Cantrell also took time during that meeting to explain how the city reached the “affordability crisis.” Referencing a CityLab article on the matter, Cantrell pointed to the moratorium that the Louisiana state bond commission imposed on subsidized multifamily dwellings in 2009. The moratorium lasted roughly four years and triggered a Fair Housing Act complaint.  Said Cantrell at the September 3 meeting:

The issues of affordability were greatly exacerbated by local organizations and state officials [who] … raised the alarm about their projections showing that there would be too much subsidized housing in New Orleans as a percentage of the rest of the market. Based in part on that report, the state bond commission stopped the issuance of bonds for the creation of affordable housing, effectively killing actual projects and causing hundreds of millions of dollars in subsidies that would have been used in supporting the lower and middle ends of the housing market to be used on other things. And now we’re in a housing crisis. ... It’s very important that we understand how we got here, and that there were some decisions that were made just a year or two after the storm that has led us to this.

Latoya understands that gentrification is not a mystical accident of the universe and is instead a predictable result of deliberate policy choices.  But the measures Latoya is backing, supposedly, to reverse this effect are inadequate to counterproductive.

Inclusionary zoning is bunk.  It's the token that allows our politics to excuse the crowding out of most middle and lower class housing by luxury development. Ultimately more poor people are displaced than are housed as a result.   And, of course, there is this.

One of the things she believes should be reconsidered are the city’s restrictions on how high developers can build these multifamily structures. The historical character of most neighborhoods across the city include mostly single-family homes, semi-detached houses, and shotgun homes—and many want to keep it that way. This could, however, be counterproductive to efforts to make the city more resilient to storm flooding, said Cantrell.

How do you spot a lie in New Orleans? Just look for the word "resilient."  Here again we see the "height restriction" question come into play.  No one is clamoring to build higher in order to build affordable.  They want to build high so that they can build waterfront luxury units on "hot real estate."

What was really fascinating, in respect to  the city budget meeting, was the Mayor's response to the batture zoning issue.

Landrieu informed the Algiers residents that New Orleans is the hottest real estate market in the country and that waterfront property in every city is considered prime real estate.  As for height restrictions he says you can either have long, skinny buildings along the river where "no one can see anything" or you can have tall buildings (I suppose suggesting that these tall, skinny buildings are somehow less of a hindrance to viewing the river).

He then went on to break the bad news to the Pointers (Algiers) about "what's not going to happen".  The residents of the Point were not going to be able to say "I gots mine and nobody else can have theirs"...essentially confirming their worst fears about what probably "is going to happen" regarding development plans for the batture.

Interesting he would frame it that way.  Right now the batture is green space that everyone can share. The Mayor's logic seems to be that the residents of Algiers Point are being selfish for wanting to keep sharing it that way.

From the point of view of the power brokers, our "affordable housing crisis" isn't really a problem. That's just about poor people being forced out of their neighborhoods which, according to all of our previous policy choices, is what the city wants anyway.   On the other hand, developers really do have a problem getting over zoning restrictions. And, to a lesser extent, they have a political problem rationalizing all the poor people being forced out of their neighborhoods.  Getting around the zoning restrictions in the name of an "affordable housing" policy that doesn't actually work anyway.. well that kills two birds with one stone, doesn't it.  Neat.

All your favorites are back!

Lost in the excitement of a new football season, we neglected to note some of the more exciting candidates who qualified to run last week. Most notably, John Labruzzo, once famous for proposing that the state sterilize poor people, has decided he should go back to Baton Rouge and.. at least see about getting them drug tested.

"People kept asking me, 'Can you repeal Common core on the council? Can you do drug testing of welfare recipients on the council?'" LaBruzzo said. "They kept (telling) me, 'You need to go back to Baton Rouge.'"

Other legislative priorities, he said, would be to impose a two-child cap for welfare recipients, increase penalties for violent criminal offenders and convey state landmark status on all New Orleans monuments.

Glad to see, also, that the Jefferson Parish resident cares so much about New Orleans Confederate history.  (Labruzzo once represented roughly the same legislative district that elected David Duke.)

Meanwhile, our friend Derrick Shepherd, is rested and ready, although not technically eligible to run after having spent time in jail for money laundering. 

Derrick Shepherd, who resigned his state senate seat in 2008 before pleading guilty to money laundering charges, is attempting a comeback with a run for his former state House seat.

Shepherd’s run for the House District 87 seat is barred by a state law that prevents convicted felons from running state office. But the former lawmaker, who served two years in federal prison, said in a press release he plans to challenge that prohibition as unconstitutional.

“My campaign will offer hope to many citizens who have made a mistake that they too can receive a second chance in life,” Shepherd said.

EWE: "Dammit, why didn't I think of that!"  

Re-instate the House Arrest

The city has a whole new category of back pay to make up.

NEW ORLEANS -- Dozens and likely hundreds of New Orleans residents have been double-billed for sanitation services every month for years without any way of knowing it, a WWL-TV investigation has found.

One woman who was victimized for 15 years before stumbling on the truth calls it a "scam" because the city is only willing to reimburse her for three years' worth of errors and refuses to make the basis for the charges clear on bills.

"I call it a scam," said Uptown resident Francoise McHugh. "If you knowingly keep a form that's very confusing to people and you do not agree to change it and make it clear, I wonder why this happens."

McHugh and her husband bought their home in 2000. It had been converted from a double shotgun to a single dwelling. The change was clearly indicated on the sale documents at the time, in city tax records since then and by the fact that they have always had only one water meter.

 In New Orleans, the sanitation fee is typically added to everyone's water bill.  Recall that Mayor Landrieu recently pushed for a new measure that allows him to shut off water service to households that are deemed delinquent in paying these fraudulent fees.
 

Trying to hang on to the past

Back in the 90s I was in a very famous teeeevee show..

Poor Sean Payton. He used to be big time. He's the guy who took the job in the building where it used to be wet and then showed everybody how to smell the resilience and stuff.  It was a big deal.  We won football. Perhaps you aren't old enough to remember.

If you were born the summer Payton took the job as the Saints head coach, you are enjoying your first few weeks of fourth grade right now.  Good luck this year. Sorry your parents wouldn't let you go out for football.  They're right, though.  It's a really really dangerous and stupid activity.  It probably won't even be around for much longer.

But that's okay because, as we mentioned above, Sean Payton won it for us once. You were three years old at the time. It was fun, though. It's why those of us who are old enough to remember it still feel sorry for the husk of a has-been  Payton has become.  We feel bad because we were around to see it all happen.

First there were the drugs, then the public divorce, and then the year away from football courtesy of one of Roger Goodell's frequent and now much better understood fits of capricious abuse of power. Inevitably, this was a period of bizarre and erratic behavior culminating in the obligatory subscription to the trendy lifestyle cult of the day. We understand that fame is a destroyer and that this is pretty much the typical life cycle of the superstar.

We suspect that Payton's ride is coming to an end. But how is he going out?  Are we watching a slow, steady unraveling? Or is there one more moment of catharsis still to be realized? None of us knows what will happen in the future. But, once you've been around long enough, there are a few stories you might see enough times to recognize them when next they play out. The trick is knowing which one you're watching as it happens.  You almost never get that right.

Here's one some of us thought we recognized during the summer.  Old guys like me might remember the day that Tom Benson finally got tired of the Mike Ditka regime.  In one bloody bloody offseason, Benson fired everybody. He fired the coach and all of his assistants. He fired the trainer. He fired the general manager. He fired the "capologist."  He even fired the dog.

NEW ORLEANS (AP) -- Fetch Monster, who delighted Louisiana Superdome fans by retrieving the kicking tee after kickoffs and field goals at New Orleans Saints home games, has been fired by the team.

The Australian Shepherd got her walking papers Thursday. She joins president-general manager Bill Kuharich, coach Mike Ditka, most of his staff and trainer Dean Kleinschmidt on the roster of ex-Saints.

"What they're doing is getting rid of the only winner they have so far in PR," said Mike Moriarty, a Houston lawyer who, along with his wife Melna, owns the dog. "I don't think in three years the dog lost a game."

Sean Payton and Mickey Loomis weren't fired this year.  But the organizational purge that went on around them reminded us, at least a little bit, of the cleansing by fire Benson initiated fifteen years ago.  The scouting director was fired. The pro personnel director moved on to greener pastures. Rob Ryan wasn't fired but he did get a new assistant/supervisor/potential replacement.

"I'm Jimmy!" was traded for a center and a pick that became Stephone Anthony. Ben Grubbs was traded for a pick that became Tyeler Davison. Kenny Stills was traded for a pick that became PJ Williams who is on IR now and somebody named Linda Ellerbee.. or something.. I think. Haven't seen much of him.  Basically Kenny Stills was traded for air.

Other things happened. The best all around football player of the Payton era was released.  The biggest mistake of the Payton era was consigned to a parallel dimension from where he can only communicate with the real world in short bursts through other people's twitter accounts. They even drafted a new quarterback as if to drive the point home that change was in the air. Tom Benson disowned his whole freaking family.

For a while there, we were able to see all of this positively.  The Saints were a Superbowl favorite in 2014 but finished 7-9.  Fans weren't in the mood to hear about what needed to be "tweaked" or "cleaned up" or whatever else a coach might say when he's out of ideas. Instead action.. any action... was more satisfying. Perhaps a spastic expulsion of toxins was the way to recover from such a massive disappointment.  It's what anyone's company does if they don't make the numbers in a given quarter.   Just fire everybody.  That's sane, right?

Or maybe that's actually kind of crazy. I think it was Junior Galette who, in a rare moment of clarity, first pointed this out.

"Who else do they have?" he asked pointedly in an interview with NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune on Friday. "You tell me: Who else do they have?"

Yeah, well, uh oh.  Please do not answer Jairus Byrd. Before this week, you might have meekly suggested Cam Jordan is a kind of reliable person but now that's out the window.  Keenan Lewis was a person. But we won't hear from him until week 5 or 6.   For a while, there was a plan to just let Brandon Browner run around pass-interfering with people but we've barely seen him practice or play in the preseason.  Worse, still, the most substantial answer to Junior's riddle is probably, they are going to play a lot of rookies. When The Purge started to happen this summer, the reason we were momentarily excited was we assumed it implied an actual plan was in place.  That seems less likely now.

We should have understood this as soon as the team got back to Greenbrier where, much like last season, the team barely participated in actual football practice.  Instead they brought in special video game equipment to get some "virtural reps" in.  Also they purchased something called a "Cryochamber" because.. well.. I'm not sure what they need it for exactly.

“If you’ve ever just sat in an ice tub, it’s real beneficial, and yet, it can kind of take your breath away,” Payton said. “Another technology is the cryochamber, which is new, a shorter period of time.”

Payton and general manager Mickey Loomis spent some time in the offseason researching the device, and it’s been put into practice for the entire team all summer.

After donning mittens and socks designed to protect fingers and toes, the player has to stand inside the cylinder for three minutes, and their body is enveloped in a freezing air mixture for three minutes.

Payton himself tried it Friday morning in West Virginia.

“It’s not easy, but I would say it’s easier than sitting in the plunge pool,” Payton said. “I got in it this morning. … It’s a long three minutes, but coming out of it, I know how it feels.”

New Orleans has encouraged the entire roster to give the cryochamber a try.

They're not telling anyone just yet but if you're wondering what happened to Jairus Byrd, turns out he hung out in this thing a little too long.  You won't see him again until the year 10,000 when he is thawed out by the apes.

Meanwhile they never got around to figuring out how they want to do any of the actual football this season. I'm typing this about an hour before kickoff in Arizona and right now this team looks like an unfinished weekend project.. or, to use a real world example, Rob Ryan's shoddily constructed house.  When they traded for Max Unger and dumped Ben Grubbs, we thought they were going to rebuild the interior offensive line.  But starting today on either side of Unger are the underwhelming Tim Lelito and the 500 year old Jahri Evans. They didn't bother to finish the job.

Who even is on this team?  All week the Saints didn't seem to know. In one of the more "inspiring, heartwarming" comeback stories of camp, Tim Hightower made the roster.  Then he was cut the day before the opener. There are 12 rookies both drafted and undrafted on the roster. The other day, they found this guy named Obum Gwacham laying on a pile somewhere. Rob Ryan says he "shows real talent." He's not active today.

Nobody even knows if Jairus Byrd exists.  Brandon Browner barely practiced during camp. C.J. Spiller was supposed to be important.  What does he look like?  Does anyone really believe Zach Hocker is going to be the kicker?  Do the Saints even know who is going to call the plays?

Sean Payton may not handle all of the Saints’ play-calling duties this season.

Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael may get his chances, too. Carmichael, who called plays in 2011 after Payton broke his leg and has handled duties in preseason games the past two years, gives the Saints another option.

So far, New Orleans is still working on how the two will divide duties when the regular season begins on Sunday in Arizona.

“We’ll figure it out here as we go,” Payton said. “Pete’s someone that’s been real in-tune to what we’re doing. It may change week by week.”

Just gonna get everybody in a huddle and whoever has the best idea at the time, that's the play we're gonna run. It worked pretty well for Occupy Wall Street. What the hell?  Here's an annoying interview with Jay Glazer where Sean Payton talks about the importance of "attention to detail."  And yet he hasn't quite figured out the basic logistics of getting a play called this year.  Seems kind of nuts.

What does it mean, though?  I see two explanations. Neither of them is particularly good for the 2015 outlook. It could be there really is a plan in place to spend this season developing a younger roster.  Let the rookies make mistakes. Take your lumps and come back next year for one last push before Drew Brees retires. If that's the plan, note the emphasis on "take your lumps" because there will be a lot of them. Things will get worse before they get better.

The other possibility is that Payton really is a total burnout.  He didn't set the whole thing on fire this summer to purge it of impurities, he set the whole thing on fire because fuck this shit. If that's what's going on then things are going to get worse before they get sad before they get hostile before they #GetWeird before Tom Benson fires everybody again.

Knowing all of this I thought long and hard about reversing field and calling for the Saints to win 10 or more games anyway.  The reasons for doing this would be as follows.

1) Just for the sake of being contrary. Everybody expected the Saints to be great last year and they were.. not great. Everyone expects bad things this year so.... but that would be reactionary and irrational, right?  Well consider, in that case..

2) Football is totally random anyway.  Pro football is especially random. Most games are decided by only a few points and by unpredictable factors like injuries or missed calls or multiple accidents of fate. Don't bet money on these games. You'll end up in a mental competency hearing.

Nobody knows what will happen in the future. We don't even know who is on the team right now.  We can only tell you what any of you who have received the conventional wisdom already know.  If the Saints can keep Drew Brees healthy and upright they will do two things exceptionally well: Pass the ball and play zero defense.  Even in their down years under Payton that's been good for between seven and nine wins on its own.

But something about this year feels even more down than that. The starting middle linebacker is a rookie.  The pass rush is provided by ? There is one free safety on the active roster today. It's opening week and if I had to describe these Saints in one word it would be, unready.  Maybe we'll see some progress in a few weeks.  They are potentially not terrible. They'll score points, anyway. Probably not enough.  Call it 7-9 again. That could be hopeful or it could be bitter depending on just how crazy Payton really is.  Stay tuned.

Nobody cares about David Vitter's hookers

Sure, it's funny. Sure, he's a big fucking hypocrite and, if certain rumors are true, kind of a weirdo. But it should be quite obvious by now to his opponents that they're not going to beat him by flogging this dead issue. David Vitter is the smartest, toughest, most well funded campaigner in the race. You're going to need a plan to win. Not some gimmicky sideshow.

But people do enjoy playing with shiny things.

But in the shadows, a parallel, and much less polite, campaign has been unfolding, this one having to do with lingering questions about presumptive front-runner U.S. Sen. David Vitter’s history with prostitutes.

There, a small army of journalists, bloggers, private eyes and opposition research specialists has been chasing rumors and tales about the senator’s murky actions. Of course, Vitter’s major opponents — Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle and state Rep. John Bel Edwards — have more than a passing interest in the subject.

If you're among the "shadows" Bridges is describing here, stop it. At best you're digging for fool's gold.  At worst you're this asshole. 

A Baton Rouge television reporter was fired Tuesday several hours after a confrontation with U.S. Sen. David Vitter, and he claimed later that he lost his job because Vitter’s gubernatorial campaign threatened to pull its ads from the station.

Well that's certainly huge... well not huge but a thing.. maybe... if true.  Is it true, though? Did Vitter's campaign really even bother with this?  That would seem counter to their, highly successful for a decade, practice of ignoring and stonewalling.  But maybe this particular reporter was just important enough to draw special attention. 

Tuesday’s confrontation took place in the parking lot of the Secretary of State’s office after Vitter signed the papers to qualify for the governor’s race. Myers, 23, attempted to question Vitter as the senator was walking to a waiting car with his wife, Wendy. Vitter ignored Myers’ questions.

Oh so he's a 23 year old kid whom Vitter didn't even acknowledge.  Well, alright. Maybe he's got some other big time credential that makes him worth the extra effort. 

Myers arrived in Baton Rouge three weeks ago after working for the ABC news affiliate in Ocala, Florida. Originally from Ohio, Myers said he takes pride in his aggressive style. His Twitter account says he is nicknamed “bulldog” in the newsroom.

“I’m a hard-hitting journalist who likes sharing people’s stories,” Myers said in the interview.

Jesus. We are dealing on the James O'Keefe credibility level here.  Why take anything this guy says or does seriously?  Here is a Facebook video I may have failed to embed where he describes to us the standard by which he judges the quality of his own work.

This is a video Derek Myers - the 23-year-old reporter who says he was fired for asking David Vitter questions - posted to Twitter in July. Suddenly, I'm on Vitter's side.
Posted by Jeremy White on Friday, September 11, 2015

It's bad enough when a stupid self promoting pseudo-journalist like Myers behaves this way. But the reason Tyler Bridges is writing about the prostitution scandal on the front page of today's Advocate is because a concerted effort of political strategists, PACs, and commenters is conspiring to make it into a major campaign issue. This is a bad idea. At least if you're trying to beat David Vitter it is.

One assumes Vitter's opponents would like to beat him, although it's possible they just like having him around for comedic purposes. And, hey, it is fun. Vitter asks to be taken seriously as a pious defender of "family values" and yet his personal proclivities reveal him to be something of a fraud. Major LOLZ there. You don't even have to be particularly creative to score points off of that.

But maybe ten plus years is enough of that.  Is it even funny anymore?  More importantly, shouldn't we know by now that this isn't the way to win an election against David Vitter?  Hey remember that time everybody pretended they were going to run a porn star against him? Wasn't that hilarious? How did that work out?

Beyond mere efficacy, though, the real problem with drawing the focus of the campaign to Vitter's personal foibles is it is essentially a conservative tactic. It inhibits our ability to talk about what the next governor should actually do. Party operatives and "thought leaders" prefer we not take this opportunity to talk about real life. The elites in these positions prefer not talk about the problems Louisiana faces and the wealthy and powerful people we would have to upset in order to fix those problems.  It's so much easier for them to just parade salacious rumors in front of an electorate they clearly have no respect for whatsoever.

But disrespect begets disrespect.  First, an out of touch, too clever by half club of political pros insults the voters.  The voters respond by electing the intended target (Vitter in this case) anyway out of spite.  The club concludes, once again, that the real problem is the voters are stupid. And so the cycle repeats next time.

You'd think the pros who've seen this movie a few times would catch on, eventually.  On the other hand, they're always going to be fine either way. And this is pretty easy hack work.  Why ruin a good thing?

The Perry bump

Rick Perry dropped out of the Presidential race Friday sending a seismic shock all the way to... well alright he registered less than one percent support in the last CNN poll so that's really not even a ripple.  But every little bit helps if you're Bobby Jindal. And this looks like it was.. a very little bit.

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, whose campaign for president has been mired in financial troubles, announced Friday that he’s leaving the race, prompting kind words between him and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.

Appearing at the conservative Eagle Forum in St. Louis, Missouri, Perry told the crowd he considers Louisiana among the pioneers, along with Texas, of the “limited-government/freedom state.” He contrasted that with states like California and New York, which he sees as “government-run welfare states.” (Note: Louisiana’s mention there was an ad-lib and doesn’t appear in Perry’s prepared remarks.

It's not surprising that Perry would give parting props to Jindal. The two have shared resources, staff, a commitment to the power of big prayer rallies,  as well as a political philosophy based on blatant unabashed pay-to-play cronyism... which is what Perry actually means when he talks about that "limited-government/freedom state" thing.

Stephanie Grace alluded to that in passing in a Friday column about this week's Trump vs Bobby slap fight.

Voters around the country might not notice, but his pronouncements on his record in Louisiana regularly irk his own constituents. That’s particularly true of his claim to have been a good shepherd of the state budget, which was balanced on paper this year with a hefty helping of smoke and mirrors. At the Press Club on Thursday, Jindal called Louisiana’s budget a “great example” for Washington, even as politicians back home gird for yet another round of big midyear cuts.

That's not quite precise enough, though.  Jindal isn't trying to impress "voters around the country" right now. He's going after movement conservatives. Such voters, in Iowa as well as in Louisiana, don't really care about fiscal responsibility.  What they care about is "limited government" in the specific sense that they think government gives poor and/or non-white people too much stuff and should stop doing that. Breaking the state budget is a particularly effective way to accomplish "limited government."

Every year's budget brings another crisis by design where lawmakers are forced to make "tough choices" resulting in cuts to education or hospitals or retirement benefits for state employees.   And then Jindal can take that on the campaign trail and boast about how he "reduced the size of government." Of course the billions of dollars given away to oil companies and Hollywood South grifters never really gets reined in somehow but, remember, fiscal responsibility is not the point of  "limited government."

That's how Rick Perry ran Texas, it's how Bobby Jindal ran Louisiana, and it's why Perry recommends Jindal's model now as he bows out. The problem for Bobby is it's also how Scott Walker did things in Wisconsin. Remember, 2016 is The Year Of The Shitty Governor which is one reason Jindal has had so much trouble standing out in this field.  And it's why the Perry bump, if such a thing exists, probably won't be worth much.

Goatwatch

Will he or won't he?

New Orleans businessman and The Advocate owner John Georges continues to seriously mull a run for governor with just hours until qualifying ends.

Georges is out of the country, but has filled out the necessary paperwork to qualify and his attorney will file for him later today at the Secretary of State’s office should he decide to run, confirms pollster Verne Kennedy, who does polling for Georges. Earlier this week, Kennedy said Georges has no plans to enter the race.

“He initially said he is not running,” Kennedy tells Daily Report. “But he is reconsidering that now.”

Georges filing to run from "outside of the country" would be fun.  Not quite as fun as a candidate filing while under "house arrest" but we can't have everything, I guess.

More Trumpy than Trump

Bobby Jindal insists Trump is not actually the Trump you're looking for.

III. But, here’s the problem. Donald Trump is also full of nonsense.

• Don’t get me wrong — His act is tremendous. It’s a sellout show, and I’ve enjoyed it.

I laughed out loud when he read Lindsey Graham’s cell number on live TV.

I got a kick out of him giving kids helicopter rides at the Iowa state fair

And I was amused when he said the people at Jeb’s townhall were sleeping.

• But, it is now time for us to do what Donald would do, and say the thing that everyone is thinking, but is afraid to say out loud. So I’m going to do it.

The Donald Trump Act is great, and the idea of Donald Trump is great — BUT the reality of Donald Trump is absurd, he’s a non-serious carnival act.

Jindal, of course, believes he is the correct Trump.  Whether or not this message connects with voters, it is the correct message for Jindal to send now.  Oyster explained this the other day. 

If Jindal's campaign continues to languish at the bottom, it won't be because he's run it poorly.  Jindal has positioned himself exactly where a candidate looking to take the GOP nomination this year would want to be.  If it doesn't work out for him, it will be because, well, Bobby is kind of a nerd and people aren't very excited about him. But it won't be because he's running a poor campaign.

Mitch Landrieu's Day Off

It's a real crisis, y'all.  Mitch has to work from home for a while.  If you can send snacks and maybe Netlix recommendations, I'm sure he'll appreciate it.

With a judge threatening to place him under house arrest on weekends, Mayor Mitch Landrieu has taken to the airwaves, using radio ads to cast the New Orleans firefighters union as intransigent in their dispute with the city over back pay and pension benefits.

Landrieu’s administration is apparently still far from a deal with the firefighters that would resolve a court judgment ordering the city to pay $75 million in back wages and another $67 million in interest.

The mayor is asking Civil District Court Judge Kern Reese — who held the mayor in contempt of court last week and threatened to impose house arrest on him if the case isn’t resolved by Friday — to put the contempt order on hold while he pursues an appeal.

Both sides met with a mediator Wednesday afternoon, but firefighter officials said nothing was resolved.

In an email to supporters titled “House Arrest,” the mayor said Wednesday that he is running a radio ad to explain his side of the case.

“Paying what the union demands — even over 10 years — would mean slashing funding to basic services like recreation and fixing potholes, property tax increases of nearly 10 percent or hundreds of layoffs,” Landrieu says in the ad. “I will not let us go backwards on all the progress we have worked so hard for.”

Yeah, this isn't going to accomplish anything. Dude is just gonna keep writing his Letter From A Broadmoor Living Room until the judge admits he just handed him a platform to keep grandstanding from.  This can pretty much go on forever if they want it to.  It actually already has.

#Betsy50

I wasn't around for Betsy.  But growing up it seemed I'd never hear the end of it from people who were.  Even so, there's a difference between hearing about something and experiencing it oneself.

I understood enough about the city's geography and the risks associated with hurricanes. But, for me, they were primarily excuses to get a day or two off from school while watching the local news broadcasters freak out in amusing ways. The old folks would tell stories about flooded neighborhoods and the possibility of having to bust out of one's attic with a hatchet.

We heard all of this stuff but I'm not sure we took it very seriously. We understand it better now.  I wonder what a 10 year old kid today might think, though.

Anyway, these photos are interesting to flip through.  I wish we had better IDs on some of the locations, though.

"Right now no"

Raise the Goat Signal



John Georges has some polls he would like to tell you about.

On Wednesday morning in a text exchange with Gannett Louisiana, Georges remained coy.

“Right now no, but I’m getting lots of calls and yes, there is still time,” he texted.

Georges, 54, is chief executive of Georges Media, which owns The Advocate in Baton Rouge, the New Orleans Advocate and the Acadiana Advocate.

He also owns Imperial Trading in New Orleans, which he said is a $1.2 billion company, the related Harrison Co. in Bossier City, the legendary Galatoire’s restaurant and other businesses throughout the state and beyond.

Georges, who ran unsuccessfully as an independent in 2007, said his own polls show he could make the runoff.

“It’s ironic that eight years ago I decided to run when the polls showed I could not win and people did not want me to run,” Georges texted. “Now the polls have me in the runoff and in first place and people are calling for me to run ... What has happened after eight years of (Gov. Bobby) Jindal? Have I changed or have the voters?

“Today people understand the state’s budget is a huge problem and they feel an outsider is the only hope to overcome decades of special interest. It’s probably my time. I acknowledge what people are saying and believe me I am honored and humbled.”

Can we see those polls, please? Something isn't right here.  No, I don't mean the part about Georges running first... although that is dubious.  I'd like to see some numbers on whether or not people believe John Georges is in any way capable of being "humbled."

Amazingly, Georges talked about his humility in the same breath that he compared himself to Donald Trump.

Georges said he is fielding calls from Democrats and Republicans asking him to run and comparing him to Donald Trump.

“Democrats are calling because they don’t feel (state Rep. John Bel Edwards, D-Amite) is strong enough to defeat (Republican U.S. Sen. David) Vitter,” he continued. “Republicans are calling because they fear the PAC money will attack Vitter and knock him out.

“The business community is watching Donald Trump and believes a business person can be elected. Even the Times-Picayune would love me to run so they can poke fun at me.”

Yeah that would be fun. I wonder what the Advocate thinks. 

Anyway, he still says, "right now, no." But that phone is ringing.

First, do your job

Larry Summers (who can surprise on occasion) argues against the Fed's assumed upcoming interest rate hikes here. All of Summers's points are good. But the one that most gets at the issue, I think, is this.

From the Vietnam War to the Euro crisis, from the Iraq war to the lessons of the Depression we surely should learn that policymakers who elevate credibility over responding to clear realities make grave errors.  The best way the Fed can maintain and enhance its credibility is to support a fully employed American economy achieving its inflation target with stable financial conditions.  The greatest damage it could do to its credibility would be to embrace central banking shibboleth disconnected from current economic reality.

Are the people running our institutions there to make sure things run correctly, or are they there to make important friends and network?  The answer is almost always the latter, of course. But if only a few of them would recognize it's possible to do both sometimes, we might be better off. 

Nobody actually lives or works here

Boom times are ending.

The New Orleans metro area lost 3,800 jobs over the 12 months ending July 31, more than any other city in the country, according to a report released Tuesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The numbers were driven in part by the construction industry, which accounted for 2,700 of the total jobs lost between July 2014 and July 2015, said Ken Simonson, chief economist for The Associated General Contractors of America. Only the Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas area lost more construction jobs.

In total, New Orleans lost 9 percent of its construction jobs, among the steepest losses in the country, Simonson said. Most of those losses resulted from work wrapping up on post-Hurricane Katrina projects,including the massive University Medical Center and Veterans Affairs Medical Center.

What are we gonna do now?  It costs an awful lot to live here now.

Jindalmentum

As Oyster says here, Bobby is doing pretty okay.

Presidential candidate Bobby Jindal says the Trump phenomenon is 'silly.' That's a lot of chutzpah from a candidate who rings the alarm about no-go zones and proclaims in every single stump speech that he's 'tired of hyphenated Americans.'* When it comes to elevating insane racially-charged issues, he is the closest thing to Trump.

That's why I'm bullish on Jindal. Everyone says he has 'zero' chance to get the nod. But consider this recent NBC/Marist Iowa poll: Jindal's at 4%. Not great until you consider Jeb's in distant 3rd place at 6%. Only Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina** and Jindal had their support increase since the previous poll in July. Jindal is the only one in that group who holds elective office. It's one data point, but it could be significant. Do a fair slice of Trump, Carson and Fiorina supporters opt for Jindal as a more 'reasonable' and 'experienced' (but sufficiently race-baiting***) choice after press scrutiny, revelations and gaffes knock the leading outsider candidates down a few pegs? I think it's much more possible than people suspect. They're not going to turn from Trump or Carson and go to Jeb! I can tell you that much.

Looks like a pretty solid call to me. But I've been on board with Oyster's don't-discount-Bobby talk from the beginning.   Go read the rest. 

Worst practices

You might have missed this over the Labor Day holiday but Latoya Cantrell says she might have figured out how to fix the affordable housing crisis.  This is a dubious claim. 

The New Orleans City Council has signed off on a proposal to allow developers to build denser developments than would otherwise be allowed, so long as their projects include units of affordable housing.

The measure comes as council members and residents have become increasingly concerned about a shortage of affordable housing as real estate prices have spiked in some areas of the city.

The ordinance, sponsored by Councilwoman LaToya Cantrell, was approved Thursday by a 6-0 vote, with Councilwoman Susan Guidry absent.

“This is a step in the long journey we have to affordable housing in the city,” Cantrell said.

Zoning rules limit the density of developments by specifying the maximum number of units that can be put on lots of a given size and how large those units must be. Those requirements vary depending on the zoning of the properties.

Hey look more density.  It's been a while since we've seen anyone advocating for more density.  Up until now the trend has been "decentralization" in order to avoid "clustering" people.... oh wait.. apparently it's only bad when poor people live in "clusters."

Despite the loss of thousands of public housing units, the new mixed-income communities appear to have accomplished the goals of decentralizing poverty, at least on the footprints of the old developments.

However, they serve just 9 percent of HANO households. What about the remaining 91 percent who are using Section 8 vouchers, including thousands of former public housing residents?
Recent studies indicate the voucher program -- which is supposed to give people greater choice where they live, allowing them to choose better neighborhoods and ideally provide safer environments for their children – has fallen short.

A large percentage of Section 8 families are clustered in low-income, largely black neighborhoods, many in eastern New Orleans, according to a Data Center report. This creates a particular problem for people who depend on public transportation and work in the service industry in the French Quarter. A report by Ride New Orleans found that only 35 percent of the city's bus service has returned in the past decade.

"We know they are being pushed out into the suburban areas, far away from the places they called home for generations, the neighborhoods that in some cases they helped build," said Cashauna Hill, executive director of the Greater New Orleans Fair Housing Action Center. "They're commuting for well over an hour every day to get to work. Is that the life we want for the people that support and sustain our service-based economy and the people that contribute to our reputation as a cultural mecca?"

Okay so one more revision, I guess. It's only bad when poor people live in "clusters" on real estate that might be attractive to developers. But now that we've re-clustered that problem out in the burbs, it's time to re-densify the city.. but with class this time.  That's funny enough as it is.  But what if we also told you we were doing all of this in the name of creating "affordable housing."

Under the new rules, a complex that commits to set aside 5 percent of its units for households that make no more than 30 percent of the area’s median income would be allowed to build 15 percent more units than otherwise allowed.

A 10 percent increase in those regulations would be allowed for projects that set aside 5 percent of their units for households that make less than half the area median income, and a 5 percent increase would be available for projects that set aside 5 percent of their units for households making up to 80 percent of the area median income.

Those bonuses would be stackable, meaning a development could get a total increase in units and density of 30 percent.

The affordable units would have to be comparable to the market-rate units and spread throughout the development.

Thank God they thought to throw in that bit about making sure the 5 percent affordable units were "spread throughout" the development.  Can't have those one and a half below median income families clustering up and ruining our 30 unit luxury condo development.

More importantly, though, 5 percent is absurdly low.  In New York, they're arguing over a 25-30 percent requirement. But even when we raise the set aside percentage, this sort of inclusionary zoning program is problematic. 

Inclusionary zoning is a fatally flawed program. It’s not just that it doesn’t produce enough units, or that the apartments it creates aren’t affordable, though both observations are undeniably true. The real problem with inclusionary zoning is that it marshals a multitude of rich people into places that are already experiencing gentrification. The result is a few new cheap apartments in neighborhoods that are suddenly and completely transformed.

In other words, you can't gentrify your way out of gentrification. If you just build more supply of high rent development with only a token level of "affordable" set aside all you end up doing is repeating its pattern.

Also, as other cities are finding out, building greater density of luxury housing even with greater percentages of affordable set-asides, isn't solving the housing crisis. Why?  In short, because building "luxury" supply first, means building primarily for people who don't actually live in your city. 

This isn't the "gentrification" of sociologist Ruth Glass (PDF). I'm not convinced that this is the "gentrification" of geographer Neil Smith. The "decoupling of housing from local labour market participation" is about a decade old. The diffusion to urban core neighborhoods in the Rust Belt from immigrant gateway cities is even younger. Most distressing is the real estate development aimed at investors looking not for shelter, but a place to park cash. Greater density for whom, Russian oligarchs?

Different political geographies be damned, housing affordability is a national crisis. Seattle builds way more than San Francisco. Both markets suffer from about the same rise in rents, fastest rate increases in the entire country. Income change is flat. Rents keep rising. Ironic gentrification

There's a lot of link density in that paragraph.  The takeaway, though, is it's absurd to expect "market forces" to fix your housing problem for you. Market forces are driven by too much money that doesn't actually live here. In "destination cities" like New Orleans that happens, at least in part, via the booming short-term rental market.

The following is from a data analysis by Andru Okun and Breonne DeDecker and Darin Acosta released last week.

Long term residents are competing with tourists over a limited supply of affordable housing stock.
 
The unchecked conversion of residential housing into what is essentially commercial space impacts the housing market by constricting supply and increasing demand. Less supply and more demand means higher rent for long term residents in one of the worst U.S. cities for renters.

In other words: short term rentals reduce the amount of available housing for long term residents while making the housing that is still available more expensive.

New Orleans has a serious affordable housing problem. We don’t believe short term rentals created this problem. However, they have made it worse. Over the past decade, wages have remained stagnant while the cost of living has increased. These factors have coincided with a demographic shift in the city of New Orleans towards a wealthier, whiter population. Residents being forced to keep pace with out-of-town dollars for basic amenities like housing exacerbates this ongoing conflict.

The average listing advertised as “entire home/apartment” on Airbnb goes for $251.00 per night. The fair market rent for a one bedroom is $767.00 per month, which on average is equal to $26.00 per night. This disparity in pricing incentivises the prioritization of transients over long term residents. Hosts renting to tourists are able to earn far more than a long term renter would be willing or able to pay for the same space.

The population of New Orleans in 2014 was an estimated 384,320. The number of tourists who visited in the same year was 9.52 million. The spread of short term rentals has resulted in an influx of these visitors staying within the city's residential neighborhoods. With the limited availability of quality housing stock and weak protections extended towards renters, New Orleans’ current housing crisis has the potential to grow even worse.

How are we planning to tackle this issue?  Well, right now, we have no plan because Stacy Head thinks people caring about things that affect their lives is "vitriol."  That's probably for the best anyway since, as we explained back in June, the plan Stacy was working on was pretty much just legalize STRs under the pretense of "blight remediation" but stipulate that some day in the far future we might come back and revisit that decision.

“There are so many blighted properties that if all of our efforts to get them into commerce were successful, it’s possible there would be a place for non-owner-occupied short-term rentals,” she said.

In other words, let's make sure we build the nice things for rich people now and say we're planning for more affordable housing as sort of a side-effect.  Inclusionary zoning, but for Airbnb.

Everybody Hates Vitty

Last night in previewing the Governor's race we mentioned some of the intrigue last month over recruiting a spoiler Democrat to enter the race and keep John Bel Edwards out of the runoff. If you don't like Gomer, but you're sure he can't win in a runoff, why even bother with this?

Well, for one thing, everybody.. including many Republicans.. really don't like David Vitter so they'd prefer to have another Republican around to vote for in November.  And for another thing, people dislike Vitter so much that this gives credence to the theory that Edwards really might win.

The belief all along has been that any Republican would be favored if he got into the Nov. 21 runoff with state Rep. John Bel Edwards, the only Democrat in the race. Democrats haven’t fared well in running for statewide offices.

Recent polls have indicated that might not guarantee a Republican victory. Edwards is running an effective campaign and is doing well in the polls. Some GOP voters we have spoken with have said casting a ballot for Edwards wouldn’t be a problem if Vitter were his opponent.

Uh oh.  Right now Vitter ally Boysie Bollinger is lining up money to support legislative candidates who pledge to enact new "tort reforms" that further immunize businesses like, say Bollinger's shipping or other oil field and offshore services concerns from pesky lawsuits like, say, the one the levee board tried to bring against oil and gas companies last year.

Bollinger's group likely prefers Vitter. But they'd settle for anybody but Edwards who they see as a potential disaster for them. Word is they've tried like hell to run a patsy Democrat to keep Edwards out of the runoff. If they can't do that, how do they deal with their Everybody Hates Vitty problem before it's too late?

The Backlash Election

Here's a pretty good Matt Taibbi article in Rolling Stone this week about Trumpmania.  Taibbi's main observation about Trump voters is that they represent a mini-populist revolt of Republican voters against the Republican donor class. 

And all that money the Republican kingmakers funneled into Fox and Clear Channel over the years, making sure that their voters stayed focused on ACORN and immigrant-transmitted measles and the New Black Panthers (has anyone ever actually seen a New Black Panther? Ever?) instead of, say, the complete disappearance of the manufacturing sector or the mass theft of their retirement income, all of that's now backing up on them.

The party worked the cattle in their pen into such a dither that now they won't rest until they get the giant wall that real-life, as-seen-on-TV billionaire Donald Trump promises will save them from all those measles-infected rapists pouring over the border.

And that's all well and good. I mean, I think Taibbi is accurately describing the fault lines in the GOP coalition.  However, I don't think those faults are ultimately anything for Republican party leaders to worry about electorally.   Right now the footsoldiers are having a little fit and making the oligarchs nervous. But all that really means is they're going to be up in a lather and ready to take it out on Hillary once the general election comes around.

Trump will not be the nominee. Whoever is will benefit from all of this anger. Because, to paraphrase our friend Oyster, elections aren't decided by sober discussions of policy points.  Large numbers of voters are moved by more visceral appeals and themes.

The 2016 national election cycle is going to be about many things to many people.  But its most prominent animating theme is going to be white backlash. Here's Taibbi again.

ABC News published an intriguing poll the other day, one that spelled out a growing racial divide:

"Nonwhites see Trump negatively by a vast 17-79 percent… That said, whites are the majority group – 64 percent of the adult population – and they now divide evenly on Trump, 48-49 percent, favorable-unfavorable. Clinton, by contrast, is far more unpopular than Trump among whites, 34-65 percent. So while racial and ethnic polarization is on the rise in views of Trump, it remains even higher for Clinton."

Conservative white voters are pretty ridiculous and a little scary when they're all riled up like this.  At the same time, though, there sure are a lot of them. And their whole point this year is they're tired of putting up with everyone else.

Trump's supporters are people who are tired of being told they have to be part of some kind of coalition in order to have a political voice. They particularly hate being lectured about alienating minorities, especially by members of their own party.

Despite what you might read in a lot of the mainstream punditry right now, Trump isn't "tearing the GOP apart."  He's only tensing up its coils and storing up its energy.  Come next fall, the release of that energy is going to be what drives this election.  

Regular Election Season Preview

Preseason is ending.  This weekend, we.. slowly.. learned the final composition of the New Orleans Saints roster as they prepare to open regular season play next week. (Lots of rookies expected to start or play lots of snaps on defense this year. Yikes!)  This week coming we're going to learn the final roster of candidates in the fall elections.

Here are your important dates. The primary is October 24. If you need to register to vote, you have until Sepember 23.  If you are thinking about running for office, qualifying begins this Tuesday and ends Thursday. There may be some surprises next week. But, at the moment, this is your roster of candidates for Governor.

Public Service Commissioner Scott (T-Bobby) Angelle



Angelle worked in the Jindal Administration as head of the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority. Despite some effort to distance himself, his campaign has ties to Jindal's polling and fundraising infrastructure. He's seen by many as the current Governor's preferred successor.  This could be a liability, to say the least, with Jindal's statewide approval ratings sitting in the 20s and 30s these days.

In 2011, Angelle was the proud recipient of the "Blue Heron Award for Environmental Stewardship." That sounds nice. The award is handed out by the Louisiana Mid Continent Oil and Gas Association. Those guys really know their environmental stewards.

Aaron Viles, deputy director of the Gulf Restoration Network, questioned whether it is ever appropriate for an association to give an award to someone who oversees the regulation of its members.

"Mid Continent giving an environmental award to Scott Angelle is like GE giving a nuclear safety award to the leadership of Fukushima Prefecture," Viles said.

But Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who handed out the award, said in a statement that "Scott has been a warrior for our people and our coast."

"He has fought tirelessly to help get out people back to work after the federal government implemented a job-killing deepwater drilling moratorium and a de facto moratorium on shall water drilling," the governor said.

Heckuva job, T-Bobby.

Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne



Republican politics in Louisiana over the past decade has sometimes been described as kind of a three way turf battle between Jindal, Dardenne, and David Vitter.  To the extent that that's even true, Dardenne has been the minor player in it. It's probably more accurate to say that Dardenne has positioned himself as the anti-Jindal in terms of patronage and organization in Baton Rouge and Central Louisiana.  His beef with Vitter is more a default result of the fact that everyone has a beef with Vitter.

Still, Dardenne has substantial reach and name recognition. And his mild temperament allows him to be seen as something of a moderate alternative to the other Republicans even if this is not, strictly speaking, true. As Lt. Governor, he works closely with the tourism industry.  Expect him to call on support from friends there. He's also already pandering to the "Hollywood South" crowd despite the huge hole that program has eaten out of the state budget. (More on that in a bit.)

Dardenne also holds the distinction of being the only candidate to build a replica of the Poverty Point Native American historic site out of Mounds bars.

State Rep John Bel (Gomer) Edwards



You almost have to admire John Bel. He's come a long way during the preseason.  He began with certain strengths. He is a well respected leader among colleagues in the legislature. He's a veteran. And practically everyone in his family has been Sheriff of Tangipahoa Parish at some point. The Sheriff's Association still matters in Louisiana politics. Maybe not as much as it once did, but still.. nothing to sneeze at.

But he was also pretty much a no-name among voters statewide.

He's doing better now. Some polls over the summer even showed him leading the field. Edwards has done well to lock up endorsements from the state Democratic Party and Louisiana AFL-CIO early in the year before anyone else with a "D" behind his/her name could jump in the race. (More on that in a bit.)

He gives a pretty good stump speech. Here is Gambit's write-up of his appearance at this year's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in New Orleans. 

Edwards said the pressing issue on voters' minds going into the 2015 election is recovering from Jindal. And Jindal's not even on the ballot. But the party continues to link Republican candidates for governor to Jindal — in his speech, Edwards called his opponents "Jindal on steroids" (David Vitter), "Jindal Lite" (Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne) and "Jindal incarnate" (Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle). Former Gov. Kathleen Blanco, the last Democrat in the governor's mansion, introduced Edwards, whose supporters rang yellow bells with blue handles throughout his speech and at any mention of his name throughout the event.

Gomer rolls out that "Jindal Lite, Jindal Incarnate, Jindal On Steroids" line everywhere he goes. It must be working at least a little bit. At the JJ dinner he also worked in a shot at David Vitter. "100% of the voters know who Senator Vitter is. I'm not sure he can overcome that."

Speaking of which...

US Senator David Vitter




Presumptive front runner and eventual Governor unless something drastic happens.  Nobody likes him at all and yet nobody has any idea how to beat him.  Vitter is a smart, resourceful, and ruthless campaigner. He also has something like $9 million to spend between his campaign and supporting super PAC funds.  He's consistently polled ahead of the pack, or in the top two. It's impossible to imagine Vitter not at least being in the runoff.

Biscuit 4 Louisiana 



Fake Twitter account ostensibly managed by a housecat. Biscuit nonetheless poses a semi-viable alternative to most of the other candidates on the slate.  Thus far in his political career, he has stood against the reelection campaigns of Bobby Jindal in 2011 and Mitch Landrieu in 2014 on the grounds that he was at least as serious a candidate as any other challenger those years.  His platform mostly involves pointing out terrible policy choices his opponents might make and declaring that, instead of doing any of those things, he would probably nap or play with some string or some such.  Barely campaigns. Has no money, organization, or experience.  But please don't call him an underdog because.. well..

Mystery Last Minute Entrant?



Oh my God who could it possibly be!

As sort of a warm-up last week, the candidates participated in two pre-season forums. The first was something called a "Students Ask" forum Wednesday night in "Downtown Hammond."  Candidates answered questions posed by a panel of college students.  The other was a business community sponsored event at the Jazz Market on Friday.  David Vitter only participated in the second forum.  Like preseason football games, they were meh events. But we did learn a few things.

On Wednesday, one interesting question about coastal restoration came from a North Louisiana student.  In our part of the state, voters typically ask the candidates how quickly we can get moving with plans to meet the most serious existential challenge we face. But the way this young lady phrased it was, "Am I going to have to pay higher taxes to fund coastal projects."  It almost sounded, in other words, like "Why should I even care?" So that's one political obstacle to saving South Louisiana from the sea. North Louisiana doesn't care whether we do or not.

Another obstacle, we already know about. No one is willing to hold the oil and gas industry accountable for the destruction it has wrought. Gomer is the only candidate talking even a semi-OK game in that regard. At the students forum he said, "We cannot allow (oil and gas) to be immunized from paying their fair share." Sounds pretty good.  I'm wary of such statements, though, because "fair share" is such an intentionally vague phrasing.

The other candidates are even more timid in that they do everything they can to avoid linking coastal loss with oil exploration at all. At the business forum, Vitter even suggested the best way to make the industry pay their "fair share" is to promise never to make them pay.

Vitter, in sharp contrast, called for greater limits on those kinds of lawsuits to create a better investment climate in Louisiana.

One of the people in the audience was Loulan Pitre, a former state representative from Lafourche Parish who has created a political action committee with former shipbuilder Boysie Bollinger that is seeking to elect legislative candidates who will support Vitter’s view.

Other tidbits from the Students Ask forum: 

Dardenne and Angelle seem to be under the impression that black people all over the country are killing police and not the other way around. Angelle views nationwide protest against police violence as "folks turning against the badge," while Dardenne said, "It's tragic to see police being killed all over the country."  It was disappointing to watch Edwards avoid countering any of this poison. Instead he talked about how proud he is that pretty much everybody in his family is a Sheriff of one thing or another.

T-Bobby's primary message at the Wednesday night forum was that he has lots and lots of children and grandchildren.  Also he sometimes says things in French. A major tenet of his platform is about constructing a large electronic plaque that blinks "CATHOLIC CAJUN PERSON" for him to wear around his neck on a chain. 

The candidates had to answer one obligatory stupid question about which actor would play them in a movie. Dardenne says he wants to be Dustin Hoffman. We were all crushed that he didn't say Rowan Atkinson.

And of course, at the students' forum, they all talked about TOPS and what a shame it is that there's no money for things like TOPS anymore.

There was also some talk about cuts to the state employee retirement program and what a shame it is that there's no money for retirees anymore.  If you've been following along in recent years, you'd know Jindal destroyed a well run Office of Group Benefits in order to satisfy an ideological canard and, of course, hook up some cronies in the process.

Jay Dardenne must not have been watching any of that. His response more or less sent the following message to retirees affected by the boondoggle.





Anyway with all the talk about responsible belt tightening, you'd think the candidates could also agree on plugging up some of our more serious budget holes.  According to this Advocate special report last November, state "tax incentive" giveaways to various special interests have increased from $207.8 million to $1.08 billion (!) per year over the past decade.   These giveaways include oil and gas drilling tax rebates, the state inventory tax reimbursement the infamous "Hollywood South" tax credit program.

At the Jazz Market forum, though, only Edwards said anything against any of those three big budget holes.

Edwards, the only Democrat in the race, gave an answer that the sponsors probably didn’t appreciate. He said the Legislature and Gov. Bobby Jindal have cut spending during the past seven years and that taking a bite out of the business tax breaks was necessary to help balance the budget and stave off the possible bankruptcy of LSU’s main campus in Baton Rouge.

“For one year, we reduced some tax expenditures on a temporary basis,” Edwards said, adding that the Legislature and governor ought to limit the cost of tax breaks and how long they can remain in effect.

Edwards added that the revenue raised from curtailing some tax breaks by 28 percent helped pay for the operation of the big New Orleans hospital that opened a month ago.

This morning's Advocate reports that next year's budget already projects at least $700 million in deficit.  The next Governor and Legislature will have to choose between even further cuts to higher education and health care or patching the gaping hole in the budget due to corporate welfare. This question should be the central theme of this election.  Right now, Gomer is the only candidate who even acknowledges it.

The good news there is, should Gomer make the runoff as most polls suggest he will, the election will at that point be about a serious contrast in policy choices.  That's the sort of thing that makes for a compelling race, and maybe even a closer race than conventional wisdom suggests.

So despite the slow start, this could end up being a fun election season later on when... oh wait a sec. Almost forgot about this.



The late hour chatter this weekend suggests there might be a shake-up coming.

Recall early August when Video Poker and Newspaper Kingpin John Georges paid for a poll that.. for some reason.. also included his name as sort of a bonus question. 

The poll was partially funded by John Georges, a New Orleans businessman who co-owns The Advocate and ran for governor in 2007.

Kennedy included Georges’ name in the poll, asking only if the person was aware of his name and had an opinion about him.

“Currently, I have no plans to run for public office but I would never rule that out,” Georges wrote in an email. “I have included my name recognition and favorability in every poll since owning The Advocate to gauge public opinion on the things I am doing. I cannot see a scenario that I would run but I am flattered. I believe the field of candidates will not change.”

Let's just say that a lot of people aren't buying that right now. 

That poll was released amid a flurry of intrigue last month. My guess is most of it was purposed toward promoting Angelle. In addition to Georges, other names were floated as potential candidates. Mayor Landrieu and City Councilman Jason Williams were rumored to be considering it. 

This was strange since the only thing an extra Democrat in the race could do at this point is ensure that zero Democrats make the runoff. So any Democrat who jumps in now has to know that's what he/she is going to accomplish. The tradeoff for this, traditionally, is the spoiler candidate is either straight up bought off or gets to build some statewide name recognition and momentum to use later on. It's hard to see either of those things motivating Georges.  But there are other incentives.

For instance, it could also be that the realpolitkers in the State Democratic Party are thinking they need to submarine Gomer now in order to keep Vitter from taking the runoff in a cakewalk.  They don't think Edwards, or any Democrat can beat Vitter so they'd rather take their chances with a Republican of their choosing.  Anybody but Vitter, right?



Plus there are plenty enough prominent Democratic party insiders and donors in Louisiana who, thanks to their specific business interests would be as happy if not happier with Angelle as Governor than Edwards. John Georges is one such person.

Recall also that, when Geoges's poll was released, Clancy Dubos made the strange choice to report it in such a way that made it appear as though Angelle was surging and Edwards was falling behind.  The veteran reporter chose to leave this impression despite a rather obvious aberration in the numbers he decided to highlight.

Those percentages reflect the straight-up answers to direct questions. If the numbers are calculated for how voters in various demographics actually cast ballots, then the results change.

“My understanding of the poll is that I am in first place, with Vitter and Angelle tied in second place,” Edwards said Friday.

Kennedy’s poll showed when African-American responses are redistributed along historical voting patterns, a common technique used by pollsters, then Edwards’ support comes in at 34 percent, while Angelle and Vitter each have 21 percent. Dardenne and the “undecideds” are at 12 percent.

So why did Clancy write it the way he did? He tried to explain himself a few days later.

When Kennedy’s poll leaked out last week, I reported only the “raw” and “leaner” numbers because I was not trying to project the results forward. Think of it this way: A poll is like a photograph. It reflects voter attitudes and opinions at a particular point in time. Over time, the picture usually changes — especially when candidates start spending money and attacking one another. A poll, therefore, is not a crystal ball that predicts the outcome of an election. It merely shows where the candidates are at a particular moment during the campaign.


In not reporting the redistributed numbers, I didn’t intend to discount the validity of Kennedy’s analysis, nor did I intend to slight Edwards. However, when the redistributed numbers began circulating, people wondered why where were such different results from the same poll. I hope this explanation helps.

I don't know if that helps.  If anything it adds to the suspicion that Clancy knew exactly what he was doing when he reported the numbers the way he did. 

All of this suggests that Angelle is the candidate a lot of establishment pols and donors including John Georges (and possibly Clancy Dubos) like the most. If Georges jumps into the race this week.. and, again, a whole bunch of people seem to think this could happen... that is most likely the reason for it.

Or it could be we get through Qualifying Week with no extra drama to speak of.  In which case, these are the candidates we're stuck with.  That is, unless Biscuit comes up with the entrance fee by before Thursday.  Anybody got an extra $750 he can borrow?

Update:  Not long after I published this, I heard that Georges might not run after all.  This doesn't change anything about the dynamics and motivations described here, though.