It turns out the price of oil is fluctuating

It's apparently never done that before, says Cameron Henry.

In an interview, Henry said he and Barras were on the same page about the revenue projections, and the House speaker would have objected the same way he did on Tuesday. Barras could not be reached for comment.

“He would have done absolutely nothing different than I did,” Henry said in an interview.

Henry said concerns the state economists brought up about the price of oil dropping, possibly larger state tax refunds going out to residents and uncertainty around corporate tax collection projections made him think the new revenue projection was shaky.

The economists, one of whom has been doing state revenue projections for decades, routinely point out portions of their forecasts they believe to be less certain. Legislative economist Greg Albrecht, specifically, mentions the unpredictable nature of corporate tax collections at almost every Revenue Estimating Conference meeting, but they usually do not delay the adoption of a new forecast.

Oh well, guess the teachers have to wait to get that raise. Probably until we're all sure the price of oil will always go up.  Or maybe just until they're all forced to walk out in the middle of an election year. That'll be fun for everybody. 

They might get the 4.5

Signs they might be ready to put this year's fight to bed.

House Republican leaders are pushing the 4.4 percent sales tax rate in House Bill 10 by Rep. Paula Davis, R-Baton Rouge. House Speaker Taylor Barras, R-New Iberia, is a co-authoring this legislation.

Davis did promise Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee that if her bill came back changed -- or with a higher tax rate -- that she would allow it to come up for a vote. That means if Edwards and the Democrats can get the support for a 4.5 percent sales tax, Davis might not stop her bill from being changed.

House Democrats, particularly the Black Caucus, have said they aren't willing to vote for less than 4.5 percent or cut some government services.

Maybe they still won't find the votes for it. But there's an argument to be made that Republicans have thrown enough fits this year to score all the political points they need to go into next year's elections.  They've also managed to stave off more meaningful and lasting reforms. They've managed to protect the bulk of the corporate privileges bleeding the rest of us dry.

Also of note, Cameron Henry has attached his proposed budget re-vamp to the Davis bill.

It’s co-authored by Speaker Taylor Barras, and the amount of revenue it generates served as Appropriations chairman Cameron Henry’s number for the amounts he plugged into his supplemental spending bill, HB 1, on Wednesday evening.

“This removes the priority list in the original budget bill, and appropriates the money from the Davis bill,” Henry told his committee. “I picked the Davis bill, because we needed something to get the conversation going, We need to move along and get something over to the Senate.”

Even if the Senate revises it to a 4.5% sales tax that barely funds state government as it is. It also preserves what most Democrats consider an intolerable burden on the poor and it effectively "denies the Governor a win" by ensuring a continuance of the argument we've been having for the past few years.  It might be time for Republicans to declare the mission accomplished and allow this thing to end. They've done enough damage.

Update:  Wait a minute. Somebody might have found them some free money. 

WASHINGTON (AP) — States will be able to force shoppers to pay sales tax when they make online purchases under a Supreme Court decision Thursday that will leave shoppers with lighter wallets but is a big win for states.

More than 40 states had asked the high court to overrule two, decades-old Supreme Court decisions that they said cost them billions of dollars in lost revenue annually. The decisions made it more difficult for states to collect sales tax on certain online purchases.

This just happened so I'm not sure how much revenue this produces. A law passed earlier in the year provides for Louisiana to take advantage of the ruling immediately. Although how immediately is also in question.

Upperdate: Here is a full clarification as to what today's SCOTUS ruling means for Louisiana's fiscal crisis. In short, not much. 

The Supreme Court ruling doesn't actually allow any state to start collecting more internet sales taxes. The court has decided to send the case, which involves a South Dakota sales tax law, back to a lower court for another trial. It could be years before the ruling has any effect on state revenue.

"It's not going to result in immediate income to the state," said Rep. Jay Morris, R-West Monroe.

Even if the Supreme Court ruling could take effect immediately, Louisiana isn't ready for it. States that want to collect more internet sales taxes must have a streamlined system and central collection point, according to the ruling.

Louisiana has none of these things.

"Louisiana is probably the farthest from being in compliance," Drenkard said in an interview. 

So much for that, then.  Of course, Cameron Henry's Facebook page hasn't weighed in from alternate reality yet, so we'll see. 

Meanwhile, the House rejected Davis's bill at 4.5% this evening so, so much for that as well.  They still haven't moved any revenue bills.

They're going to do whatever they want

Remember that "leverage" some people thought John Bel had going into the special session?  Yeah, well, not everyone agrees that is real.

House Appropriations Committee chairman Cameron Henry, R-Metairie, said he wants to reopen the discussion about health care spending and whether sheriffs can absorb a major reduction in the money they're provided to house state prisoners and parole violators.

Gov. John Bel Edwards, a Democrat, and Senate leaders are not interested in having that debate again. The governor's official call for the special session released last week restricted discussion of budget changes to technical adjustments, without allowing for a re-vote on the spending plan itself.

There is a disagreement about whether the governor's call restricts the Legislature from voting on a reworked budget though. Because the technical change to the budget bill has been included in the call for the special session, the entire budget bill is open for debate, according to Henry.

"You can't open up a section of a bill. It is all of it or nothing," Henry said. "We confirmed that with the (House) clerk."

I'm not sure if opening the whole budget back up for debate means we lose the one the Governor has already signed (thus sending us back on the path to a shutdown.) It probably doesn't. But it does greatly increase the workload for the new session which would mean there's a much better chance that nothing gets accomplished.  And, like we said earlier in the week, Republicans don't care if anything gets funded at all. So getting nothing accomplished would suit them just fine. 

Countdown to... ?

We were counting down to a state government shutdown.  We probably aren't doing that anymore. Even though the legislature failed to fund it, John Bel did decide to sign a budget passed in the most recent session. This means, I think, that the shutdown scenario has.. probably.. been averted.  It looks like the state will have a budget no matter what happens next.  The upcoming Ultimate Special Session will determine how much, if any money gets put back into it.

A lot of attention has been paid to the possibility (should the legislature fail to come up with any new revenue) that Louisiana could become the first state in the union to completely shut down its food stamp program. This would be an astounding turn of events for too many reasons to go into but consider at the very least that it is currently hurricane season.

Without the regular food stamp program, Louisiana also won't qualify for the disaster supplemental assistance program, which provides funding for groceries to people who are recovering from hurricanes, flooding and other disasters.

So something has to be done.  Or does it?  Tim Morris says here that signing the budget gives the Governor an advantage he hasn't had previously.  

For starters, the governor chose to sign the budget lawmakers approved in the second special session, which means the battle over appropriations and who gets what is essentially over. The budget, as rewritten by an Edwards-friendly Senate, guarantees full funding for health care.

That safely walls off a huge pot of money in a state agency that has been routinely assailed by conservative lawmakers as inefficient and bloated. That argument is over for this year.

The Senate also structured the budget bill so that any new money must be added pro rata, meaning proportionally to all areas where a deficit now exists.

That means that lawmakers will not be able to direct the new money to a popular program like TOPS while giving less or nothing to something like food stamps. Everybody gets fully funded or nobody gets fully funded. Some House members are disputing that interpretation, which could end up being the most important fight of the session.

But let's not take even this for granted. If there is any one thing, observers of this year long exercise should have come away with by now it is that this is an exceptionally stubborn Republican caucus. After all, as Gambit (and many others) have pointed out this week, the line in the sand they drew in the last session was over, 17 cents wort of sales tax on any $100 purchase.

More importantly, these Republicans... or at least the key members of their leadership..do not actually care if anybody gets funded at all. Cameron Henry doesn't want to cut Medicaid because he's worried about state finances. He wants to cut Medicaid because he literally doesn't think poor and elderly people should have health care benefits. This needs to be explained more clearly.

The state and local press coverage, for all its very good reporting on the legislative drama, still tends to make outdated assumptions about the political dynamics. I think some writers are starting to catch up but most suffer under the belief that there is a political check on the radicals somewhere in the system. Surely, sooner or later something will shame them into a "compromise."

But no such check exists.  In fact, Henry et al's radical ideology is perfectly aligned with the political and financial infrastructure that comprises their power base. Or, at least, it had better be.

Among other things, (State Senator Danny) Martiny asserted that Americans for Prosperity, an anti-tax political action committee financed by the mega-billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch, had allegedly threatened to spend $100,000 to oppose any Republican legislator who refused to vote in lockstep with the organization’s political agenda.

“Americans for Prosperity pretty much laid down the gauntlet saying that if you don’t vote the way we like, we’re going to be spending $100,000 against you,” he claimed, “And I’m all for Americans for Prosperity, but they shouldn’t be calling the shots. We need to be voting based on the needs of our constituents, not based on the political needs of Americans for Prosperity.”

But AFP, and the big corporate donors they represent, are the constituents. Here is another Bayou Brief report published in March that takes a look at how Cameron Henry's very healthy machine works. The article concerns itself with how Henry spends the money his PAC raises. But the real big takeaway from all of that is look at all the money he is rolling in by virtue of basically being a monster in politics and the patronage that money can buy for him.  That doesn't come from "voting based on the needs" of people in danger of losing food stamps.  It comes from protecting the privileges of his actual constituents regardless of the cost to anyone else.

Henry, and the Republican caucus he leads and funds, have no real reason to care if anything in the state budget is funded as long as it means their backers don't have to pay for it. And when you don't actually care if anything is funded, then "everybody gets funded or nobody gets funded," probably isn't going to give the Governor much leverage after all. No matter what happens, we can rest assured, they're going to find a way to blame him anyway.

Countdown to Shutdown

Cameron has decided we're gonna at least push this to another special session. That's pretty much what this is about.

Henry said he hasn't filed a budget proposal, in part, because he didn't think the Legislature should start to vote on a budget "until we know exactly much money we have." Nailing down exactly how much money might be available to be spent could take a few more days, as the tax bills continue to move through the legislative process. By that time, it would be too late to move a budget bill in this special session -- and a third special session for the Legislature this year would be needed to finish up the budget process.

"At this point, I'm trying to find a way around it," said Henry, of a third special session. He mentioned he is working with Attorney General Jeff Landry and State Treasurer John Schroder, both Republicans, on a strategy for speeding up budget approval.

Henry also said a replacement budget bill will would require the House Appropriations Committee to hold another round of budget hearings and public testimony, which typically takes a few weeks. The Legislature has moved budget bills in special sessions previously without going through the whole budget hearing process over again.

Ha ha ha  "working with" Landry and Shroder. OOKAY.

Yesterday they spent the holiday afternoon passing Lance Harris's crappy sales tax bill plus a bill by Katrina Jackson that will limit on income tax deductions. Those tell us we will have some money although they aren't going to be enough money.  In any case, it's more money than was in the "pretend" budget the Governor just vetoed so you'd think it would be time to start making the new one.

But that logic only applies if you assume everyone here is acting in good faith toward the goal of averting the pain of the fast approaching fiscal cliff.  And if that is still your assumption by this point, you really haven't been paying attention. Thus the passage of the revenue bills didn't jump start the budget process at all and instead touched off a farce concluding in a stubborn troll move by Henry to call a vote on overriding the Governor's veto. This is from Sue Lincoln's account of that bit of theater.

“I call HB 1 for a veto override,” he said. “I know we’re all desperate to go home, and I’m with you. We override; we can have a budget; and we can supplement it with another bill. If y’all are so concerned about not having a budget, we can have one right now.”

Rep. Sam Jones rose to question the chairman.

“This seems like a reaction to the previously heated debate. Are you sure this is what you want to do?”

“It makes it all easier,” Henry replied. “It’s what I’ve been working on for the last several days – trying to work around having to do the full $30-billion budget again.”

“You said earlier you’ve been meeting with the Treasurer and the A.G. Have you discussed this at all with the administration or the Senate?” Jones asked.

“No, I haven’t talked to the administration in oh…four months,” Henry said blythely.

“Was this your plan all along?” Rep. Major Thibaut asked, clearly stunned at the malicious turn the discussions had taken. “You said you’re ready to get home. I’m ready to do the people’s business!”

Next, Leger rose, and Henry turned away, announcing loudly, “I’m going to stop answering questions. Let’s vote.”

And they did, 52-48 in favor of a motion that required 70 votes to pass.

So, long story short, there's still no budget and it's looking like there won't be one.  Which again raises the question, what are we gonna do during the shutdown?  Back in March we were still thinking about doing a crawfish boil on the Capitol grounds but the season has already peaked. Surely some sort of picnic is in order.  This week, Step Up and The Poor People's Campaign are already doing some demonstrations. A shutdown might be an opportunity to ramp that up a bit.  

Funny dreams

It's hard to decide if the Republicans in the legislature are sleepwalking or if they are just playing possum with their eyes open. Either way they do seem to  be treating the budget process like some sort of dream. How else does one justify a billion dollars plus worth of cuts to health care unless one doesn't believe any of this is real?

Both Harris and Appropriations Chair Cameron Henry said the state didn’t have enough money to fund promised services. Both said they would back “revenue-raising measures,” i.e. taxes, in a special session expected to be called in mid-May.

But this exercise was part of a process to give lawmakers a much firmer grasp on how much would be needed, both Henry and Harris insisted.

The size of the fiscal cliff has shrunk since the first special session. "The number is getting smaller and smaller," Henry said.

“This is what a responsible budget looks like — dealing with the actual figures, the actual money that's available to the state today,” Harris said after the vote. “While not perfect — there is still a lot of work to do — we passed a budget, and it’s on its way to the Senate to finish work on the budget using the funds that we have today.”

What happens in the state Senate is still up in the air. Senators could rearrange the funding and cut different programs. Or they could stall and wait for a special session.

See we're not actually voting on a budget here. We're just voting on a hypothetical idea of what a budget looks like. The actual budget will get done in the Senate or in the Special Session we kept screaming that we didn't want. Anyway somebody else will do it. This is a dream. In here we can do anything we want.

Of course it must tell us something that this horror show budget is the sort of thing the House radicals dream about.

More than 46,000 people who are elderly and disabled are expected to lose their nursing home slots and 24-hour home health care services in a little over two months if the House budget plan becomes law. The popular TOPS college scholarship would only be funded at 80 percent for the 2018-2019 school year.

Why would anyone want to live in that nightmare? If this is the dream budget, why not dream big? We're trying to pass a budget now with the knowledge that we will have to come back and fund it later, so let's shop for the things we actually need. That way, when we want to claw back some of the money we waste on things like enterprise zones we can say with some confidence that we're going to put that into hospitals.

The nice thing about a dream budget is that it gives everybody a chance to say what they really believe in without any of those nagging pragmatic political consequences to worry about, right?

The House budget passed with just two votes to spare in the Republican-controlled chamber. The vote fell mostly along political party lines. Only one Democrat, New Orleans Rep. Neil Abramson, voted for the budget with the Republicans. Eight Republicans voted with Democrats against the proposal. The three independents in the House split on the spending plan, with two voting against the budget and one voting for it.

Neil has got some funny funny dreams.

Permanent temporary penny

That "fiscal cliff" is still looming. Doesn't look like we're any closer to the equitable fiscal reform lawmakers promised would come when they voted for this "temporary" sales tax As we continue to watch them argue about this, there are two things to remember about the sales tax. 1) It is an unfair burden on the state's poor and middle class. 2) It is bolstered by support from powerful (and traditionally Republican) lobbying groups.

Some Republicans said they voted for the extra penny in 2016 only because they assumed more fiscal reform would be put in place before it the temporary tax expired. Comprehensive reform hasn't happened, largely because the Legislature hasn't been able to agree on a permanent solution.

"I will be voting no on the penny, I can assure you of that," said Rep. Kenny Havard, R-Jackson. "All I hear about is the penny, and I don't think they have the votes to keep the penny on."

Havard and (State Sen J.P.) Morrell said business lobbyists are pushing for keep the extra penny tax because their business clients have exemptions from it on some big purchases. Further, if the sales tax stays in place, it makes it less likely that other taxes on businesses will be implemented or that tax exemptions for industry will be eliminated.

"People who have sales tax exclusions are simply convinced we are going to tax everyone else," Morrell said. "The reason that some people are bullish on the sales tax is [that] they don't have the sales tax."

The true genius here politically is that, because the Republicans don't actually care whether or not we go over the fiscal cliff, they aren't about to lift a finger to do anything about the special exemptions Morrell is talking about there. This way they leave Democrats cornered as half hearted supporters of the hated sales tax. And, of course, they're all too happy to pin that on the Governor.

(State Rep Cameron) Henry, who helps build the annual state budget as House Appropriations Committee chairman, said he expects Edwards to engage in fear mongering over the next few months. He predicted that Edwards will threaten to cut the popular TOPS college scholarship program and services for disabled people if the Legislature doesn't raise taxes. These programs have been cut since 2016, when the state last faced a billion dollar deficit, and Henry said the governor threatened to cut them as "a tactic" to pressure legislators into raising taxes.

He also implied that the governor, though not most legislators, is pushing the idea of keeping the sales tax rate at 5 percent. Edwards has indeed said he might be open to extending the 5 percent sales tax rate beyond June 30, but only if it was again done on a temporary basis and passed alongside permanent taxes that would kick in once it expired.

"It will be the permanent, temporary penny," Henry said in the video. "I think anyone who falls for that is really doing a disservice to their state and their constituents.

A "permanent temporary penny" suits Henry just fine, of course. It gives him an issue he can complain all about all day even as he has no incentive to actually do anything about it. All of which is why next year in the legislature will be exactly like the previous two. It's a permanent strategy meant to make this governor's term as temporary as possible.

Groundhog Day

So let's see. You may recognize this scenario.  It's the last day of legislative session in Louisiana and the House is in chaos. Months of committee hearings, floor votes, conference deals, and late night negotiations have come down to a last minute scramble over the state budget. The budget has to pass or else everyone has to come right back in special session and start all over.

The latest version with Senate revisions is in. The task is nearly complete and everybody really wants to go home but things are bogging down because the Republican leadership is cranky.  Unwilling to bend on the last $50 million compromise, the bill's author is refusing to bring it to the floor for a vote.

State Rep. Cameron Henry, R-Metairie, was the sponsor of the main budget bill and disagreed with the version of the spending plan Edwards and the Senate supported. The governor and senators had proposed allocating all of the money available to state agencies and government, but asking those entities to reserve a total of $50 million in case of a budget shortfall.

Henry was pushing to make $100 million worth of cuts to the state budget upfront. He wanted to use that $100 million to cover any midyear budget shortfall that might come up. Edwards and the Senate would not agree to that plan.

"I don't know that there is much more I can do to prevent us from coming back here," Henry told the House. "I am looking forward to the day when I can miss all of you. We are not there today unfortunately."

Everything comes down to a race against the clock as parliamentary whiz Walt Leger tries a series of maneuvers to call a vote without the cooperation of the bill's sponsor or the House Speaker. The clock runs out. Everyone feels bad.  The Governor comes out again with his sad face and sighs that he wishes everyone would just "grow up." Stephanie Grace calls him a "disappointed dad" again.

It all starts again from the beginning this weekend on Monday (because what's the hurry, really?) When do we get to the part where we finally break out of the loop?  Does it happen before or after we go off the "fiscal cliff"?

Em-Barras-ment

We're almost to the end of the legislative session which means it's getting more difficult to ignore the massive amount of nothing that's been done to address the coming budget shortfall or the looming "fiscal cliff" due to hit when a package of stop gap temporary taxes expire.  Legislators entered the session with an array of options suggested by a special task force on tax reform and by the Governor that might have helped pull the state back from the brink.  The session itself has been a long slog of watching each of those proposals fail to get off the ground.

The Republicans in the House have been the main impediment to progress in most cases. This has been plain to see all along. It remains doubtful, however, whether anyone will hold them accountable in any meaningful way.  Here, Tyler Bridges notes some of the blowback this week absorbed by Speaker Taylor Barras including a call from his hometown newspaper for Barras to resign his speakership.

Barras is a good man but a bad speaker. A new speaker and new committee chairmen would deal the House and Capitol a needed new hand.

Answers to Louisiana’s pressing problems will not come from this House as it is presently constituted. That much is proven.

Our tax system will stay broken. Our higher education system will remain imperiled. TOPS will stay on risky fiscal footing. Our roads will remain among the nation’s worst. The fiscal cliff lies straight ahead, and there are no brakes on this legislative bus.

Local lawmakers said before session’s start that voters should be able to vote for a gas tax. They won’t. Our lawmakers said the Taylor Opportunity Program for Students must change to survive. It won’t.

Bridges also highlights an epitaph for the gas tax by Louisiana Association of General Contractor chair Ken Naquin. 

“You must appreciate the toxic mix that is the House of Representatives as it exists today and the total lack of leadership in the House,” Naquin wrote Wednesday in an email to his members.

Naquin added that while Barras holds the speaker’s gavel, two other Republicans, state Rep. Lance Harris of Alexandria and state Rep. Cameron Henry of Metairie, wield so much power that “there are in reality 3 speakers.” Harris heads the Republican caucus while Henry chairs the Appropriations Committee.

“The power in the House is Rep. Harris,” Naquin wrote.

 You know what they say about quarterbacks. If you've got three, you really don't have any.  And if the "power in the House" is with one of the backups, then you've got a real problem. 

On the other hand, none of those maxims apply to the Republicans in this case. Despite the seeming discord, there probably aren't political consequences for any of them and that includes Barras.  After the session ends... and after John Bel finally lets them all out of detention... they can go back to their districts and boast that they fought hard to keep from raising taxes.

This won't be exactly true.  In fact, the full effect of the Governor's preferred reforms this year would have been an overall tax cut for 90 percent of Louisiana residents.  Republicans did manage to prevent tax increases on the wealthiest residents and businesses who are their actual constituency anyway. They did this at the great expense of everyone else and left a lingering disaster in their wake. Not that it matters. The Republicans know full well that voters will hold the Governor accountable for the mess in 2019 which only adds to the incentive to stay the course. Everything is right on schedule.  Why would they dump their leadership now? 

Rainy Day Fun(d)

Cameron Henry isn't having any fun.  

House Appropriations Chair Cameron Henry said that he was eager to get the budget bill out of the House and on to the Senate. A final plan will be hashed out between the two chambers once they have their own versions in place. The legislation had to start in Henry's committee though, under the legislative rules.

"There's a bigger picture here and I can appreciate no one wants to make cuts," Henry said. "It is a miserable experience. It's not fun."

It's hard to blame him.  The governor did call everybody up to Baton Rouge during Mardi Gras to work on  all this stupid budget stuff. On the other hand, he did try to make it as easy as possible.  Seems kind of spiteful of them not to take advantage of that.

Disagreements are almost exclusively between the governor and the House Republicans. Edwards wants to use $119.6 million worth of reserve funding, called rainy day money, and avoid cuts to elementary and secondary education, prisons and others areas. The rest of his plan reduces spending by about $60 million and moves money around in the budget.

House GOP leaders are less inclined to use rainy day money. They say that's a short-term fix that doesn't address Louisiana's continuing financial turmoil. They want larger and more permanent spending cuts, for long-term change. 

Problem there is "long term change" in their minds just means deeper and more permanent cuts to vital services. Hospitals, higher ed, K-12 funding are all (again) on the chopping block.

The House GOP plan that was approved Friday would make use of $75 million of rainy day money. It includes $55 million more in cuts than the governor's plan, for a total of $115 million worth of cuts overall.

"What we must do is attempt to stop spending more money than we have," Henry said. 

Funny thing about that, though. Henry's plan isn't to stop spending the money we don't have. It's more about pretending we have more money than we do... in order to cut that too.  

Proponents of the plan to use the money from vacant positions discussed on the floor some 1,750 state government jobs that they say are funded but not filled.

Democrats questioned whether the money actually exists in those agencies budgets after an earlier round of cuts.

"That money's not real," said Rep. Sam Jones, D-Franklin. "There's not $8 million lying over here or lying over there. That's fake money."

The House being the House, though, went ahead and passed the "fake money" budget. Every Republican (plus Neil Abramson, of course) voted for it.  Today, the Senate will try to fix whatever it can of the mess. We'll see how that goes.

As for us, we're going back out to the parades.  Last night while the legislators were arguing over rainy day funds, were standing out in the actual rain watching Oshun and Cleopatra. 



St. Mary's here is the only picture I managed to get during Oshun. It was raining a lot. Kind of a shame as it looked like this could have been one of the better Oshun parades. Not that that's saying a whole lot. In Oshun's case, it just means it looked like there were more large floats.  They do lose points for these corporate branded throws.



Oshun looked like it could have been a pretty good Oshun. Cleopatra looked like it could have been huge. In years previous, you weren't likely to see the Elvi on the first night, for example.



Also Disco Amigos. Sorry about the blurry photos. It was raining a lot.



Not so long ago, these specialized variety acts didn't show up until much later in the week.  Lately they've become more of a standard element. They fit Cleopatra's Vegas-type theme, though.



As for the cold and rain, maybe that fit the occasion as well.

Sen. @ReginaBarrow says lawmakers should use full rainy day fund: "We're not in a rain. We're in a hurricane." #lalege

— Melinda Deslatte (@MelindaDeslatte) February 18, 2017

The dismal session

Looks like John Bel got $74 million out of the House GOP rather than the  $119 million he wanted.

The House Appropriations Committee on Wednesday agreed to send two budget bills to the full chamber for consideration — movement that came a day after lawmakers had attempted to hash out an agreement with Edwards, who had asked the Legislature to take $119.6 million from the state's reserves to help plug the $304 million mid-year deficit.

One alternative proposal, which is backed by House Appropriations Chairman Cameron Henry, R-Metairie, would instead only take $74.6 million from the state's savings account.

Can't fault the Governor for that this time. It looks like he drove as hard as bargain as he could. It's hard to drag these kicking and screaming babies into anything. They just can't help breaking as much stuff as the can along the way in the course of their tantrum.

Henry's plan ultimately would cut $4.6 million from the Department of Corrections; $7.5 million from K-12 education; and $6.2 million from funding for colleges and universities. Edwards' plan spared those areas of the budget.

Real challenge now will be seeing to it that the Republicans own the political consequences of their unecessary cuts. That's never easy to do.

Make or break

State GOP memo recapping fall elections: "The last month has proved that John Bel Edwards’ victory in 2015 was the fluke." #lalege #lagov

— Melinda Deslatte (@MelindaDeslatte) December 12, 2016

Beyond the (ahem) minor matter of plugging up the $304 million budget shortfall in the space of ten days, there's a lot of political capital riding on this week's special session. The story of 2016 in state politics was the Republican revolution in the House. The story of 2017 hinges on whether the Governor can reassert some semblance of authority. The consequences of failure there would likely mean greatly diminished reelection prospects. The Republicans know this and have been calibrating their strategy accordingly.  Sensing this could be a make or break year, they are coming after him.

But there are signs that Edwards may have regained his footing somewhat.  He certainly hasn't been wasting time raising money. 

Gov. John Bel Edwards began raising money for his re-election campaign only eight days after taking the oath of office in January 2016 and ended the year having collected about $3 million, according to his fundraisers.

Most of those who sponsored the events were business lobbyists and others with interests before the governor and the Legislature, which is the norm in a state where private dollars fund candidates’ campaigns.

Edwards and his political allies are expecting a tough re-election campaign in 2019 from well-funded Republicans determined to prove that his election in 2015 was an anomaly in a conservative state dominated by Republicans.

“If there is opposition, you have to have the resources early on to wage a campaign,” said Dale Atkins, who helped organize a Sept. 28 fundraiser at the New Orleans home of Terrell Clayton, a developer of affordable housing.

JBE is a conventional politician who is not above the cozying up to lobbyists and donors necessitated by the process of conventional politics.  Make no mistake. It gets gross. These are not good people we've got in charge of things. But there "the army we have" at the moment so, well, here we are.

Anyway one drawback of trying to play conventional politics when you are an executive under siege (particularly when you are a Democrat) is that sometimes you tend not to play your strongest hand during the legislative process.  Witness the past eight years of President Obama's quixotic search for "grand bargains" with an obstinate Republican congress.  Witness also much of last year's three part budget squabbling between Edwards and the Republican leadership in the state House. The lesson to be learned, at the very least, is that the situation calls for a tougher negotiating posture.

It comes as a mildly pleasant surprise, then, that Governor JBE may be learning a bit.

House Republican leaders on Tuesday privately proposed covering a mid-year budget deficit in part by cutting spending on K-12 schools, public colleges and universities and the prison system but then withdrew the plan in the face of strenuous objections by Gov. John Bel Edwards and a lack of support from its own members.

GOP leadership also canceled an Appropriations Committee hearing scheduled for Tuesday afternoon during which the Republican-controlled committee was to take up the budget cuts favored by the leadership.

The big argument is over Edwards' proposed use of the so-called Rainy Day Fund to plug as much of the shortfall as possible.  The Governor's first good move was, rather than beginning with a "compromise" position, he asked for all of it.

Edwards has insisted on taking $119 million, the full amount legally available, to prevent cuts to higher education, K-12 schools and programs that provide home care givers for families with developmentally disabled children unable to care for themselves.

To reach the $304 million, the governor is proposing $63 million in other cuts, taking $44 million in higher-than-expected tobacco tax revenues and taking $78 million in unspent money from other accounts.

In the private meetings Tuesday, Henry and Harris said they want to take only $50 million from the rainy day fund, not $119 million, and pay for the difference – $69 million – by cutting public colleges and universities by $12 million, K-12 schools by $6 million, prisons by $9 million and the state health system by $44 million.

For the first time, Edwards seems to have forced the House leadership into a position where they have to come to him instead of the other way around.  They seem uncomfortable with that. 

Henry, following the second meeting with Edwards, said that House Republican leaders would propose a new plan on Wednesday.

“We’re trying to meet in the middle,” he said in a brief interview. “We’re trying to compromise.” He didn’t respond to a later request for more information.

State Sen. Eric LaFleur, D-Ville Platte, said House Republican leaders are facing a conundrum.

“They like the power, but they don’t always like the political consequences of that power,” he said in an interview. “It requires them to make tough decisions that aren’t always popular.”

Turns out that legislatin' business is pretty hard work.  Anyway, it's early in the session, but this could be a good early sign that things are looking up for the Governor in this make or break year. 

Governor Landry wins a round

The judge says, actually,  Governor Landry can overrule Governor Edwards if he wants to.  

Attorney General Jeff Landry can reject dozens of state legal contracts because they include language preventing discrimination against gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender people -- among other reasons, according to a Baton Rouge state court ruling Monday (Oct. 17).

Judge Donald Johnson, of the 19th Judicial District Court, determined Gov. John Bel Edwards does not have the right to sue Landry and force the attorney general to approve legal contracts with a LGBT nondiscrimination provision Landry finds objectionable.

The judge said state law is hazy about whether Landry or Edwards has the final word over legal contracts, which made granting the governor's wishes for forcing the Landry's hand on the contracts difficult.

"I believe that the law is uncertain -- and it does not provide the court with a clear path," Johnson said from the bench, adding: "The court denies the request of our governor."

The governor's office said they will either appeal the court's decision or file a new lawsuit that might use a different type of legal angle to get the contracts past the attorney general. Either way, they don't plan to take LGBT workplace protections out of legal contracts until other avenues have been exhausted first. But the process could take months, bringing some areas of state government to a grinding halt.

A "grinding halt." Just because Governor Landry and friends feel like being mean to teh gayszz.  Earlier today, Governor Landry's pals signed a letter attesting to their own status as deplorable basketcases themselves. There's a list of them here. It includes two of the highest ranking Republicans in the legislature.

Two of them are members of the House Republican leadership. State Rep. Lance Harris, R-Alexandria, is head of the House Republican caucus and Rep. Cameron Henry, R-Metairie, is chairman of the House Appropriations Committee.

So much session

We may not be well governed but we certainly are much governed this year. Clancy DuBos suggests there may be even more extra special governance to come.

Louisiana lawmakers have until midnight Thursday, June 23, to conclude the second special session of 2016. They have been meeting more or less continuously since Feb. 14, and by now they’re pretty much tired of looking at each other.

But their work is far from done, according to Gov. John Bel Edwards, who summoned them into both special sessions and is said to be considering yet another — yes, a third — if this one doesn’t meet his expectations.

Probably won't happen that way. But fun to think about!

Anyway I'm not sure about Clancy's casting of JBE as Henry V there. Yeah he's a military guy and all but it's not quite right. 

Of course the temptation is to turn every political drama into Julius Caesar. I don't know if Edwards is enough of a populist or as true to the poor to qualify as Caesar but we could probably stretch it to fit if we try. I guess that would make Jay Dardenne Mark Antony.. or maybe that's JP Morrell.  I don't know. Like I said, it's a flimsy premise. I'm just trying to get us to the party where Neil Abramson and Cameron Henry are Brutus and Cassius because that's what makes this whole thing go.

Yep, and that's how they're going to beat you

John Bel Edwards is upset that Republican legislators won't help him fix Bobby Jindal's budget crisis.

Edwards called Seabaugh’s comments a “bitter, partisan attack.”

“When he had the chance to do his part, he sat on the sidelines. He would neither identify cuts to make to stabilize the budget, nor would he support raising additional revenue. He said ‘no’ to every single possible solution without offering any of his own,” Edwards wrote in the Tuesday editorial.

“Rep. Seabaugh needs to look no further than his own voting record when he decides to place blame for the continuation of these problems and the lack of funding for critical programs in this area, like TOPS and the medical school, and I will not let him distract from the work that so many other bold leaders, in both parties, from this region are willing to do,” Edwards continued.

Yeah well good luck with that. The budget crisis may be a Jindal era leftover but that hasn't discouraged Republicans (and others) from making sure it becomes Edwards's problem rather than theirs. They've had almost no political incentive to cooperate with him in good faith.  Instead we've seen a series of insincere political postures from Governor Kennedy, Governor Landry, and yesterday, Governor Abramson.

Governor Kennedy is running for Senate. Governor Landry is running for... well.. Governor, eventually. And Governor Abramson is probably running for State Senate in a conservative district. All of those guys have a greater political incentive to distinguish themselves as enemies of the Governor than they do to actually resolve the budget problem. In fact, the longer the crunch persists, the easier it is to pin everyone's woes on Governor Edwards.

All Edwards has going into the special session is the faint hope of offering TOPS as a carrot to Republicans in some sort of  bargain to raise revenues.

The budget passed by the Legislature on Sunday night funds only half of the TOPS scholarship program while five safety net hospitals are short $100 million and the state’s colleges and universities are missing $55 million if they were to receive as much next year as they got this year. The budget also cuts spending for K-12 school spending by $44 million — the first reduction from one year to the next in decades — and does not contain money to open the new $24 million Acadiana Center for Youth, a 72-bed facility in Bunkie.

Edwards is asking lawmakers to raise more money by eliminating tax breaks for individuals and corporations and by raising a tax on insurance companies. In all, he wants to fill what he says is a $600 million gap.

Already, though, it's clear that won't be enough. 

“I would like to fund TOPS at 100 percent,” said state Rep. Cameron Henry, R-Metairie, who chairs the budget-writing committee. “But TOPS is only short this year. Do you permanently raise income taxes to fund TOPS this year?”

The answer for Henry is definitely no.

And the reason for that should be obvious as well. The Republicans don't actually have to fund TOPS in order to win the issue politically. All they have to do is complain that the Governor failed to do it for them. Yesterday's HB2 fiasco as well as the ridiculous way the earlier special session ended demonstrate quite clearly that the conservatives are well dug in against this Governor. And that's how they're going to beat him.

Bomb in the beehive

Monday evening, the Louisiana State Capitol building had to be evacuated after what police termed a "credible" bomb threat was called in to them.  "Credible" is a funny word to use to describe someone's "visions from God" but OK. 

A male caller told the Baton Rouge Police Department that “he’s having visions from God that bombs are being placed in the State Capitol,” said Baton Rouge Police Cpl. L’Jean McKneely Jr.

The caller has also repeatedly placed calls to the Police Department since the first call was made and hangs up, McKneely said.

We might forgive our prophet if the "bomb" in his visions actually had turned out to be Cameron Henry's budget. The Lord's revelations are always tricky to interpret after all. And a budget proposal that forced the House to choose between horrific unacceptable cuts to state hospital services for the poor or fully funding the TOPS program is a pretty suspicious package.  Fortunately the lawmakers on hand had already managed to defuse that device.

But in a Thursday night vote, House members narrowly voted in favor of cutting $72 million from TOPS to shore up funding for the public-private hospital contracts to run the safety net health care services, including those that host medical training programs. An effort to partially reverse that move, giving half of the money back to TOPS, was defeated Friday afternoon.

“For this session, the priority of health care and our hospitals takes precedence over TOPS,” said Rep. Rob Shadoin, R-Ruston. “We’re going to fund TOPS — maybe not at the level that some people want, but it’s not going away. The hospitals, on the other hand, might.”

Legislators have had to make a ton of tough choices this year. But this one didn't have to be as dramatic as the House Republicans made it appear. The budget proposal they submitted deliberately forced this argument by fully funding TOPS at the expense of the hospitals and the Inspector General's office.  It was never a serious proposal and everyone seemed to know it.

That plan finally was unveiled Monday by House Appropriations Committee Chairman Cameron Henry. Swiftly approved by committee members, many of whom had not read the amendments, it has been criticized ever since.

Senate President John Alario, R-Westwego, referred to Plan Henry as “a scheme.” Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards called it a “political stunt.” And Dr. Rebekah Gee, whose mammoth Department of Health and Hospitals bore the brunt of the proposed spending cuts, called it “leprechaun financing.”

The independent, nonpartisan Council for a Better Louisiana called the plan a “faux budget that appears to score some political points in one corner, while exacerbating serious problems in another.”

Henry's "political stunt" was meant to set the debate parameters in two important ways. First, it was an assertion that Republicans want to fund their priorities through cuts only rather than through new revenue measures in a possible special session later this year. More on that in a minute. Secondly, it was an attempt to bait liberals into an ill advised argument over whose "entitlement" is more important.  As it turned out several did, in fact, take this bait. Most notably, our friend Lamar here.

State Rep. Henry and many of his colleagues appear to still be suffering from denial. Make no mistake: Fully funding TOPS isn’t their number one priority because it’s the most critically endangered program in Louisiana. Right now, due to a lack of funding, foster children sleep on the floors of local offices of the Department of Children and Family Services. It’s their number one priority because the vast majority of those affected by cuts to the program are white kids from middle-class and upper-class families, families that are more likely to vote Republican, more likely to donate to Republican campaigns, and more capable of influencing public opinion.

Instead of even entertaining the prospect of targeted and responsible tax increases in order to solve a problem they created, Rep. Henry and his colleagues would rather defund health care for poor people. Because, to them, that is nothing more than an entitlement program. The $300 million a year that we spend to subsidize college tuition for predominately white kids (75%) from predominately affluent families (58%), well, that’s a scholarship!

There's additional context here having to do with a decade of cuts to higher ed funding courtesy of Bobby Jindal, Cameron Henry and friends. Those cuts are what have caused the price of tuition - and therefore the TOPS program- to grow out of control. So it's really Republican fiscal irresponsibility that has us in this situation. Lamar explains all of this in his article so he clearly understands it.  But Republican "starve the beast" scheming is always meant to set up otherwise avoidable choices between perceived white or minority benefits. Why even engage them in such a toxic dialogue? It's obviously what they want.

Besides, now that they've been made to take the money back out of TOPS in order to save the hospitals, Henry's faction has lost bargaining leverage over the coming special session. Once there, the governor will want to focus on finding revenue by eliminating special privileges and inequities in the tax code.  Republicans are far more likely to help him do that if there are items in the budget they still want to fund.

The special session would be the second time this year that lawmakers have been asked to consider raising revenue to fund state services. Earlier this year, lawmakers agreed to raise the sales tax and increase the cigarette tax, as well as remove some sales tax exemptions, to try to infuse more money into the state’s coffers.

Edwards has charged a tax and budget task force with coming up with recommendations for how the state can come up with more money to fund the coming year. A second special session likely would focus on some exclusions in the tax code.

By law, the budget that lawmakers pass this session must be balanced, so they can’t account for money expected in the special session. That means the budget approved will likely contain deep cuts to some programs that lawmakers can try to back-fill if they raise revenue.

In other words, it matters that the hospitals are fully funded now and TOPS is not yet because TOPS is the program Republicans are more likely to help "back-fill" later on. So every Democrat in the House should have jumped all over this strategy, right?  Well, as it turns out, #NotAllDemocrats.

Fourteen House Republicans broke with their political party and voted for the hospitals to receive the $72 million intended for TOPS. The measure passed 49-43 on Thursday night. Two Democrats, New Orleans Rep. Neil Abramson and New Roads Rep. Major Thibaut, voted against it. 

Oh dear, there's our friend Neil again.  For the umpteenth time this year we find Abramson pointedly aligning his position with the Barras-Henry wing on a high profile issue. Neil's support for Taylor Barras over Walt Leger as Speaker helped secure his own chairmanship of Ways and Means.  From that post, Neil supported Republican efforts to scale back the "penny scrubbing" sales tax measures during the first special session. And now he's voting in support of Cameron Henry's attempt to save TOPS by bombing hospitals. What gives?

When we asked what gives, Team Neil responded.

@skooks @JSODonoghue  Um, hey, hospitals can be back funded, TOPS can't. But keep trying, unsuccessfully, to vilify Neil. SMH

— Kim (@NolaTalk) May 15, 2016

But, as we've just taken pains to explain above, that's exactly backwards.  What we're trying to do here is fund the hospitals now so we have a better chance at forcing Republicans to help "back fund" TOPS later.

I'm sorry if it looks like we're trying to "vilify" the guy. But the current operating theory supposes that Neil is setting up for a break with the party in case he wants to run for Senate as a Republican next time around. And after a while these little incidents add up to what we might consider a "credible" threat.  Or maybe we're just having visions.

Budget Day (again)

It's the year of the Long Parliament in Baton Rouge as the governor is expected to call a second special session to immediately follow the current regular session in order that legislators can attempt to fix the remaining FY 2016-17 shortfall.

Today the Governor outlined his budget proposal. It's not pretty.

Every state agency and department is expected to take cuts. Most will see a reduction of between 10 percent and 30 percent in state funding, according to the governor's staff.

Higher education leaders said last week that the state's public universities and college were bracing for reductions of 10 to 12 percent, which they said could send some into financial exigency, the academic version of bankruptcy. There also were concerns that some of the hospitals specifically set up to serve the poor and uninsured may have to close because of lack of funding.

This is the eighth year in a row of state budget cuts following a drop off in post-Katrina tax revenue and a generous state income tax cut. In spite of several rounds of spending reductions during Gov. Bobby Jindal's tenure, the state's budgetary problems have only deepened.

The Advocate posted a powerpoint of the Governor's proposal here.  Once again, the state is facing crippling cuts to health care services and higher education, including as much as a 66 percent cut to the TOPS program, unless... you guessed it.. new revenue can be found.

But unlike the more desperate dash to ram through a series of unpleasant sales and sin taxes we saw in last special session, there's an opportunity now to put together a more thoughtful and equitable tax reform package. This might involve altering or eliminating the federal income tax deduction on state income taxes, a more comprehensive reform of state tax "incentive" giveaways to special interests, as well as several other things the Task Force on Structural Changes in Budget and Tax Policy is looking at.

In theory, there's time to do these things. That is, if the House Republicans feel like coming back to work before September there might be. But.. well.. 

But House Republicans say Edwards and the Legislature should wait until October or November before having another special session because it will give everyone a better idea of whether additional taxes need to be passed.

"I don't see any appetite for a special session [to raise taxes] in June," Rep. Cameron Henry, R-Metairie, said.

The Louisiana House GOP refused to raise taxes as much as Edwards or the Senate leadership wanted during a special session held last month.

But conservative House Republicans who are resisting raising taxes again also haven't put forward any plan for budget cuts yet. Most say they don't want to cut TOPS or health care services but haven't released any alternative for coping with the budget shortfall.

In other words, the GOP "alternative for coping with the shortfall" is every bit as solid as Billy Nungesser's plan right now.  Should be a fun summer.

Just to see what they can get away with

Cameron Henry wants to try and override some vetoes.

Edwards removed or reduced five midyear budget cuts the Legislature passed in a special session through House Bill 122. In an interview Monday (March 21), House Appropriations Chairman Cameron Henry, R-Metairie, said he might ask the House to vote to reinstate some of the cuts.

Henry has the power to bring up the vetoes for consideration as the author of the legislation. But any House votes to override the governor would largely be symbolic if the Senate won't go along with them.

And would the Senate be willing to go along with veto overrides?

"No," said Senate President John Alario, R-Westwego, in an interview Monday.

Henry knows there's practically zero chance of getting any override to happen. But the House leadership is still testing boundaries so don't look for practical concerns to hold them back.

Pennies aren't gonna clean themselves

The LABI legislators are almost taking this idea seriously. But somehow they can't just quite bring themselves around.  

The bill Barras supports but Henry doesn't think is needed, would cause business taxes to rise. It failed to get out of the House on Sunday night by just four votes.

House Bill 61 would remove several exceptions from a quarter of the existing sales tax. If passed, the business community would have to pay sales taxes on major equipment purchases and business utilities that they don't currently pay. Sales tax holidays -- such as the ones that happen before the school year as well as hurricane and hunting seasons -- wouldn't be as generous.

The legislation would produce $20 million to help with the $900 million deficit in the current budget year, which must by resolved by June 30. It would also produce $116 million for the projected $2 billion shortfall in the next fiscal cycle, which starts July 1.

Barras, House GOP Caucus leader Lance Harris, several other Republican representatives,  and almost every Democrat voted for the legislation Sunday night. But Henry was absent during the vote. Since the bill failed by just four votes, his support might have made a difference.

The update from this afternoon is, they still can't move this penny-cleaning bill. They're trying. It's just that they really hate taxes that aren't paid mostly by poor people. Which is why they're still pushing their idea to raise another penny or half penny regardless of what happens here.

An additional 0.6-cent increase in the sales tax would raise enough to fill what Edwards says is a $147 million gap based on the tax and spending measures that the House and Senate appear likely to approve before the special session ends. (The full penny already approved by each chamber would raise $210 million this year.)

But Edwards told reporters Sunday night that he doesn’t favor going beyond the 1-cent sales tax increase because it hits the poor the hardest. He signaled, however, that he might support it if lawmakers approve higher taxes on businesses that business lobbyists have been opposing.

“I am not open to it until there is due consideration of all measures,” he said. “It has to be shared sacrifice.”

Not sure that's how I would have put it but the Governor is being diplomatic. The fact of the matter is the LABI crowd doesn't want to sacrifice anything at all. 

The Alario Budget

In the latest Gambit, Clancy DuBos lays out a likely strategy for the legislative special session endgame next week. 

If gridlock should set in, the whole package of cuts and taxes could end up being rewritten at the eleventh hour by a six-member conference committee. Important bills often wind up in conference, where conferees (three from each chamber) can literally rewrite a bill entirely. When a bill emerges from conference, it goes directly to both chambers for a straight up-or-down vote. No amendments. All or nothing. A final showdown.

As the clock ticks down to the final hours, all eyes will be on Senate President John Alario, R-Westwego, the dean of the Legislature. Alario knows this process better than anyone. He is the master of the conference committee and a deft hand at forging compromise.

As the House anguishes over every detail of every tax measure and every spending bill, Alario sits patiently in the Senate, knowing he may be called upon to sort things out. I can almost hear him whispering to his House counterparts, “Come to Papa.”

In fact, something like this played out at the end of the last regular session as the House raced through a flurry of bills freshly reported out of committee in the final hours. 

Thursday votes closed a $1.6 billion projected budget deficit — at least on paper — and ended the state’s biggest budget crisis since the late 1980s. But it will take at least a day of sorting through Thursday’s final budget and tax votes to determine exactly to what extent legislators solved the problem.

House members rushed through a series of bills during the final hour of session, with little explanation, even as members hugged and said their goodbyes. Lawmakers voted to approve the budget – 80-19 in the House and 37-2 in the Senate – without a detailed explanation of what it contained.

Guiding this runaway herd of bills through at that time was then Speaker Pro Tem Walt Leger holding the gavel instead of then Speaker Chuck Kleckey because... well.. competence, mostly.  If you're the sort of person who watches the Legislature's video feeds, this was about the best TV you'll see there.

So the scenario Clancy describes wherein John Alario and a few pals write the whole budget at the last minute is probably what has informed Governor Edwards's strategy throughout the special session.  All the governor really as to do, then, is sit and wait.

He's already let the Republicans in the House have their little fit. Meanwhile he's calmly dinged them in the press calling special attention to how unreasonable they are being.  In the end, it works out fine as long as Alario really can fix everything. It could work. But without clear control of the House it's also risky. Edwards wanted Leger to be Speaker for a reason.  As it happens, he does not have that luxury.  So he's still counting on cooperation from Taylor Barras and Cameron Henry if he wants to get this budget fix through in time. Things are looking a bit better on that front today. But there's still a lot of work to do.