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Thursday, January 03, 2008

These are mixed results

I'm glad to see Hillary 3rd, but I can't make myself believe that this is a good result overall because she's only marginally in third and this kind of a finish damages Edwards much more than it does her.

Obama is in first in Iowa by a large margin. I do not believe that Obama will be the nominee so it doesn't really matter to me what he does outside of how it affects the dynamics of stopping Hillary which, in my mind, is really what this primary is all about.

If... by some unlikely chance... Barrack Obama were to win the nomination, it would mean that the Democratic party is mildly interested in making some very superficial move in the right direction. But I would like the party I will probably vote for to give me more Audacious things to Hope for than mild superficial non-changes.

But, again, Obama will not be the nominee so someone else has to be. And if the only other viable candidates are Hillary and a now damaged Edwards, well I'm not very Hopeful. But still, it's nice to see Hillary in 3rd.

On the GOP side this is probably a race between Huckabee and McCain. McCain has a slight advantage because he has the establishment money and media behind him... but I still think people are consistently underestimating Huckabee.

Plus, if Huckabee is the GOP nominee, I guarantee you a win in the general... particularly over Hillary or the (unlikely) Obama.


Remember... I am very very likely to be wrong about all of this. For example, I seem to have called this caucus incorrectly... at least on the Dem side.

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