As I sit here now the results from Dixville Notch, New Hampshire are being counted. While we will shortly know these actual results, hypothetical results for the rest of the nation have been divined by observers using all sorts of crazy methods involving such things as tea leaves, football, and something called a “likely voter.” The latest poll results are summarized here at Political Wire. Don’t stare at them too long. Apparently they are difficult and confusing. I learned this from Bob Woodward who appeared on CNN this evening to really earn the fat paycheck he receives to say and write cogent, thoughtful things about politics by saying that the polling data was “dizzying.” In other words, “Hello I’m on TV! Thinking is hard. How much are you paying me for this? Good.” While I may share Mr. Woodward’s aversion to doing any serious work or thinking very hard, I also do not make a nice living trading on my useless opinion and therefore can, with a clear conscience, share with you the following observations on tomorrow’s umm.. today’s elections.
Louisiana Senate:
- Vitter 45%
- John 27%
- Kennedy 25%
- Morrell Dammit, why are you here?
Perfect example of what is wrong with the local press in Louisiana. Morrell’s presence in this race was always intended solely to keep Kennedy out of the runoff. John has the right friends in the State Democratic Party. Conventional wisdom holds that his geographic base gives him the best chance to win. Morrell is a team player in the party. He is only running in order to submarine Kennedy’s more populist campaign. The local media refuses to report on this angle and instead takes the whole thing at face value. Either way, Vitter is dead meat in the runoff.
Public Service Commission: Cleo Fields will win based solely on my hunch that voters in New Orleans will take literally the double negative yard signs referenced in my previous post.
Orleans Parish Criminal Sheriff: Marlin Gusman will defeat Warren Riley. I think that this race will further encourage a strong candidate to run against Ray Nagin in the next mayoral campaign. Nagin has repeatedly demonstrated that his endorsement is not worth a whole lot which raises questions about his political muscle. Riley will be the latest to fall with Nagin in his corner.
Ok, the Presidential race. Nightline has just reported that Bush has taken Dixville Notch 19 to 7. Ummm... it's okay, guys there's still a lot of counting left to be done. Earlier this afternoon I promised to go through every state. My bleeding retinas regret that promise but I am nonetheless here to make good. Listed below are your fifty United States of America in their eventual electoral colors as I see them Let's begin with the...
States in which I have seen at least one official Major League Baseball Game.
Texas
Electoral Votes: 34
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1845
State Motto: This sure is a big state we got here
Ok so it's an easy target and I want to say all sorts of nasty things about this state like how as the home of Bush, Enron, America's oil industry, the Dallas Cowboys Texas is the perfect symbol of everything that is currently wrong with America but, well, my mom is from there so back off, man! Texas is big. Texas is red. Texas does not give a shit what you think.
Missouri
Electoral Votes: 11
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1821
Baseball Teams improbably swept by Boston in the World Series: 1
You know who I hate? Tony LaRussa. You know who else? Mike Martz. Many analysts are looking at this as a bellweather state. I think Bush has it sewn up but I don't think the election hinges on it at all.
Illinois
Electoral Votes: 21
2000: Gore
Admitted to Union: 1818
Daisies Produced: 1 (I cannot absolutely verify this number)
Hey look a blue one! Outcome wasn't ever in doubt here. Let's move on. (Go Cubbies)
Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 10
2000: Gore
Admitted to Union: 1848
Ginseng Capital of the World: Wausau, WI
For the record, Zogby, which I consider to be the most reliable polling outlet has Kerry ahead by seven points here so I may be going out on a limb. I once heard someone describe Wisconsonites as "Hippie Republicans." This sounds about right. They may like to party a little but eventually they grow up to become white bread suburbanites and soccer moms and whatnot. Republican strategists invented the term "security moms" with places like Wisconsin in mind this year. Traditionally, the state is strong for labor and this will be close but I'm going red with this one.
Massachussetts
Electoral Votes: 12
2000: Gore
Admitted to Union: 1788
Yankees: Suck
Ummm... Kerry.
Bible Belt States
North Carolina
Electoral Votes: 15
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1789
Words Advertisers Actually Use to Describe the Taste of Cigarettes: "Smooth" "Mild"
Asthetically pleasing state. You've got the mountains, you've got beaches, you've got realtively mild weather. You've got too many damn crazy GSUSy cracker Bush voters is what you've got there.
South Carolina
Electoral Votes: 8
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1788
Had to be Dragged Back into the Union: Kicking and Screaming
In its heyday, this was kind of the Texas of the 19th century; the economic and political fault line of the dominant national crisis. South Carolina is still the center of some of the most well egregious ugliness of modern campaigning. In 2000, Bush and Rove really bared their fangs and smeared the hell out of John McCain. Just this morning, there were concerns over voter supression tactics targeting black voters. Bush lock, of course.
Georgia
Electoral Votes: 15
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1788
State Flower: Cherokee Rose
Bush lock.
Alabama
Electoral Votes: 9
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1819
On a recent road trip, I discovered an Alabama welcome center that featured a stone carving reminiscent of Roy's rock which read "Alabama: We dare defend our rights." Scary stuff.
Mississippi
Electoral Votes: 6
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1817
Crooked Letters: 4
One of the poorest and chunkiest states in the Union. Also one of the most solidly Republican.
Arkansas
Electoral Votes:6
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1836
Bush's surprise is in Wisconsin, Kerry's is here.
Tennessee
Electoral Votes: 11
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1796
An interesting state, demographically. The western third is very much like Mississippi; very bible belt, large black population, very poor. Central Tennessee is kind of what you would call "New South" White, professional, suburban, Republican. Nashville's hilly landscape littered with Wal-Marts and Olive Gardens as far as the eye can see. The east is Appalachian, white, poor, politically independant. It'll go for Bush pretty heavily this year. Tennessee claims to have some sort of disproportionate responsibility for country music. Screw you guys for that too.
Rust Belt States
Michigan
Electoral Votes: 17
2000: Gore
Admitted to Union: 1837
Residents Actually referred to as: Michiganders (are there Michigeese?)
Strong pro-union state hit hard by de-industrialization. Kind of the template for the region.
Indiana
Electoral Votes: 11
2000: Bush
Admitted to Union: 1816
Rural almost Southern culture. Indiana was a power base for the Klan when it was a real political force in the early part of the last century. Solidly Republican.
Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 21
2000: Gore
Admitted to Union: 1787
Home State of: V.O.D.
Yep, this is a big pick up for Kerry. Which brings us to
Kerry's Northeastern Locks Listed Here With Their Corresponding Electoral Votes
Maryland: 10
D.C.: 3
Delaware: 3
New Jersey: 15
Connecticut: 7
Rhode Island: 4
Vermont: 3
New York: 31
Maine: 4
What About New Hampshire?
4 miserable EVs for Bush
Can you tell it's getting late?
States Split Apart by Civil War
West Virginia
5 EVs for Bush
Virginia
13 EVs for Bush
States which are in vogue picks for Bush to pull upsets
Minnesota
10 EVs
Iowa
7 EVs
Kerry holds on to both of these.
New Mexico
5 EV's
Bush gets this one. Mostly because Kerry didn't put Bill Richardson on the ticket.
States That Have Elected Some Seriously Wacky Governors Over the Years
California
55 Electoral Votes
Ain't the Electoral College fun? Largest state in the union and hardly anyone cares what happens there.
Louisiana
9 Electoral Votes
The Gret Stet, as many of you know, is by far the most culturally diverse and, yes, historically the most politically progressive state in the South. Those of us who watch the polls closely here (well at least me anyway) have reason to believe that Louisana could have been in play this year had the Kerry campaign given it just a bit of attention. As it is Bush gets this one on what I'm going to score as defensive indiffernece.
States I Am Not Entirely Certain Actually Exist
Washington
11 EVs
Daisy claims to have been to some place called "Seattle." I continue to find this assertion dubious.
Oregon
7 EVs
Alaska
3 EVs
Hawaii
4 EVs
Bush's Locks in Flyover Country
Idaho
4 EVs
Montanna
3 EVs
Wyoming
3 EVs
North Dakota
3 EVs
South Dakota
3 EVs
Nebraska
5 EVs
Kansas
6 EVs
Oklahoma
7 EVs
Utah5 EVs
Arizona
10 EVs
Can Kerry Sneak Away With Nevada?
No 5 EVs for Bush
What About Colorado?
Yes, Kerry pulls out a surprise 9 EVs there.
Ok but who wins then?
Well it's all about battle torn, fraud-ridden Florida and Ohio. The question I keep asking myself about this race is this. Everywhere, voter registrations are not only up they are through the roof. After twenty plus years of reading about how dissaffected the electorate is and how no one takes the time to even vote anymore we suddenly find ourselves in the midst of an election where we are expecting record turnout, where people are camping out and waiting three and four hours to vote. The question is are this many people this passionate, this determined to have their say because they approve of George W. Bush and all that his administration has meant for us and for the world? I find that highly implausible. Maybe I am too much of an interested party to make a completely objective call here but I really have to believe that Ohio and Florida are going to Kerry today. (It is today now) Otherwise, God help us.
Total Electoral vote Prediction:
Kerry:304
Bush:234
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