Man, what a weird line. In a big game like this, you figure Vegas is baiting the stupid money with that fat number, wanting them to pile on LSU (in effect a sucker play where the oddsmakers are happy to have uneven books). But... I really don't think so this time. And if they got the line "wrong," it would've already quickly jumped down from 5 to 3.5 or so. Now they're stuck with a bad line on their biggest college game ever. What can they do? Even if they drop it to 4 or 3.5, I don't see the casual bettor unloading on Bama. And if Vegas takes the line to 3 or under, which would probably lure some casual money on the home team, they run the very real risk of getting "middled." (Say the Tide wins by 4, bookies have to pay all the bets on LSU +5, and all the late money on Bama -3.)
When I saw that line toward the end of the week, I figured it meant Bama was a lock to win going away. I thought "baiting the stupid money" was exactly the idea. When I see a big number like that I always tell people to bet the favorite.
And frankly that would have been the right play had Alabama placekickers managed to post the 12 points that would have reflected the degree to which the rest of their squad actually outplayed LSU Saturday night. But 4 missed field goals later we're reminded once again it's always stupid to bet on this stuff. And I mean like Alabama Senator level stupid.
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