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Thursday, August 04, 2011

Optimism!

Pat makes a prediction.
The next time the Democratic Party is able to name a Speaker of the US House of Representitives will be in 2023 at the earliest. Thus are the results of abandoning state parties and allowing the GOP to manage the congressional redistricting process in a majority of the United States.
Yes, but politics is a funny thing and electoral results aren't so rigidly determined by static pictures of district demographic breakdowns at the time they are drawn. Circumstances change, narratives change. Hell, people just move. Sometimes they are even forcibly moved about by events no one is thinking about during a redistricting session.

If there is one thing we can say for the fact that we live in such "interesting times" it's that it makes process-determinist political analysis an inexact tool at the very least. Anyway we'll mark down this prediction for future reference.

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