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Tuesday, October 07, 2025

Almost harvest time

We are in the stage of the business cycle where the ruling class can either (A) take the massive piles of capital that have accumulated at the top and reinvest it in humans and infrastructure that supports humans. OR  (B) they can light a big fire, loot what they can, and have cops punch anyone who objects

We almost always get option B. We are getting option B. The reason it feels this intense is because the money pile is exceptionally high this time and it looks about ripe for harvesting

The hundreds of billions of dollars companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40 per cent share of US GDP growth this year. And some analysts believe that estimate doesn’t fully capture the AI spend, so the real share could be even higher.  

AI companies have accounted for 80 per cent of the gains in US stocks so far in 2025. That is helping to fund and drive US growth, as the AI-driven stock market draws in money from all over the world, and feeds a boom in consumer spending by the rich.

Since the wealthiest 10 per cent of the population own 85 per cent of US stocks, they enjoy the largest wealth effect when they go up. Little wonder then that the latest data shows America’s consumer economy rests largely on spending by the wealthy. The top 10 per cent of earners account for half of consumer spending, the highest share on record since the data begins.

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