Election guides you will not need

You don't really have to listen to this one. I think the big takeaway from it is Varg is tempted to vote for Billy Nungesser for some reason.




This afternoon around 1pm I was voter number 160 in my uptown precinct. That's on pace for a fairly moderate turnout in an election of this size.

Anyway, before I head out to gawk at the sign wavers and whatnot for a while, I'd like to draw your attention to this Mark Ballard column from waaaaay back in July. We visit Democratic Party headquarters for a look at the inspiring strategy under development.

Robert Johnson of Marksville, chairman of the House's Democratic caucus, was in basement offices poring over demographic analytics trying to figure out how the Democrats and moderates can maintain a large enough minority in the 2019 elections to keep a seat at the table.

Johnson’s goal is to keep 39 of the House seats Democratic, “and maybe pick up two or three more.” He’s using the same strategy developed by John Bel Edwards when the governor was head of the House Democratic caucus.

“We’re hyper-localizing our races,” Johnson said. That means Democratic candidates in districts outside of secure urban areas will jettison some of the national party platforms — pushing instead anti-abortion and gun rights viewpoints — while reminding voters of their support for local institutions that employ local constituents.

Always with the bold ideas.  Louisiana Democrats are running on a platform of anti-choice, pro-gun, and very very pro whoever owns the nearest chemical plant oil refinery... or, perhaps, steel mill.  Voters like to hear about how their political leaders are out there fighting for them. The goal, again quite bold, is to not lose quite as many seats as they might lose in order for the results to be considered catastrophic. 

Come to find out, a few months later, they're on the brink of catastrophe.

The current breakdown in the House is 61 Republicans, 39 Democrats and five no-party members. In the Senate it's 25 Republicans and 14 Democrats.

“We want a more conservative voice in both chambers,” Gurvich said.

Republican pickups seem certain because, as they have done each election cycle over the past 20 years, they will likely win seats held by white Democrats in rural areas who are facing term limits or leaving office for other reasons. Those areas have been gradually swinging to the GOP.

Three rural white Democrats are leaving the House because of term limits. They are Reps. Bernard LeBas, of Ville Platte; Robert Johnson, of Marksville; and Dorothy Sue Hill, of Dry Creek.

“Those are three key seats that the Democrats need to hold onto,” Pinsonat said. “Democrats have been decimated in rural areas.”

If Republicans can gain a veto-proof majority in the legislature, they will have rendered an already mild John Bel completely irrelevant. This is one reason they've barely even bothered to run viable candidates for Governor this year.  Instead they've been pouring effort and money into these legislative seats.  Because the key races in play are outside of the New Orleans area, this means that our votes today (including our vote for Governor when you think about it) are more or less irrelevant to the main struggle going on for the future direction of state government.  So enjoy that.

That doesn't mean there aren't plenty other petty struggles going on you might pay attention to.  Thanks to term limits, there are an usually high number of open seats up for grabs.  Each one brings its own interesting dynamic.  Here are a few of the more interesting ones. I'm just going to link to you to the extremely comprehensive DSA guide for the in-depth look at each.

In District 98 (way uptown) Neil Abramson is termed out. (Frown emoji) Whoever wins this will definitely be in the "New Neil" mode, though, so look forward to being frustrated by this person for years to come.

In District 91 (less way uptown) they're trying to replace Walt Leger. By all rights this ought to be a runoff between Mandie Landry, the candidate with strongest labor backing and Carling Dinkler, the most obvious "business conservative" candidate who can't get away with officially running as a Republican. BUT thanks to the rapid gentrification of this district plus the support of the Landrieus, it's possible Dinkler could take it in the primary.

In District 99 (Ninth Ward, mostly) we've got an interesting turf battle between Cedric Richmond ally Adonis Expose' and BOLD-attached Candace Newell.  Newell is Jay Banks's niece, by the way.  Which means that Banks, who was King of Zulu in 2016 is arrayed here against Expose' who was King of Zulu in 2017.  Neat.

District 97  dividing line is between extremely pro-charter school candidates (Ethan Ashley, Durrell Laurent) and somewhat less pro-charter candidates (Eugene Green and Ben Willard).  Green appears to be more or less a Cedric Richmond cipher. (There's one of these in every race, by the way)

Anyway, those are the most interesting legislative races locally.  Another thing to pay attention to is this Jefferson Parish third council district. It's a pivotal seat on the council and there are a ton of candidates who, individually, bring pretty strong political bases with them. Derrick Shepherd is running against Byron Lee, for example. That's pretty interesting in its own right. The darkhorse here is Jedidiah Jackson. It's a difficult race to handicap but I think he's got a shot at this runoff.  

More later, probably.  Try not to get too down about the dismal prospects of everything today.