John Bel's race to lose

Hey look, poll numbers!

A new poll in the Louisiana governor’s race contains good news for Gov. John Bel Edwards and one of his Republican challengers, U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham.

Edwards, a Democrat, received 47% of the vote versus 24% for Abraham and 16% for businessman Eddie Rispone, the other Republican candidate, in the survey taken by Bernie Pinsonat, a Baton Rouge-based pollster, for undisclosed private clients.

The news is good for Edwards because it showed he likely would have won the election had it been held when the survey was conducted, Sept. 3-6, Pinsonat said, once the undecided votes are redistributed.

Propelling Edwards was his 54% positive rating versus a 42% not positive rating, the poll found.

Edwards will win the Oct. 12 primary outright if he receives more than 50% of the vote.

It also says here that Verne Kennedy's adjusted numbers put JBE over the top last month as well.  Nobody should be too shocked by this. The Republicans are barely even bothering to run a campaign against him.  Their A-list candidates all decided to sit out. The guys who are in it don't seem to be doing much hustling.  And behind the scenes, at least half of their donor base seems perfectly happy with the conservative Democrat in office now. He already does most of what they want, anyway. And that's all the more likely to continue when the Republicans expand their legislative majorities this fall.

Of course there's still a chance Edwards doesn't quite make it over the 50% hump. In that case, we're likely to see a much more aggressive push behind whichever Tweedle lands in the runoff with him. But, generally speaking, if the "accidental Governor" ends up losing, it will only be by accident.