Backing into Barry?

Guys there is a storm about to form because of a system that is backing its way into the Gulf. That hardly ever happens. But it has happened.

Michael Brennan, a meteorologist who supervises the hurricane specialist team at the National Hurricane Center, said at least two hurricanes have grown out of frontal systems.

Hurricane Arthur, which formed as a tropical depression on July 1, 2014, off the east coast of Florida, actually had its origins in a patch of Gulf thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure that popped up in late June. Those combined with a frontal system over Georgia and South Carolina and emerged as a hurricane over the Atlantic. Arthur reached a peak Category 2 strength, with top winds of 100 mph, before making landfall near Cape Lookout, N.C., on July 4.

Hurricane Alicia, an August 1983 storm, formed on the western end of a frontal trough that extended from off the New England coast southwestward into the middle of the Gulf. Alicia made landfall as a major Category 3 hurricane about 25 miles southwest of Galveston, with top winds of 115 mph.

They don't know what this one is gonna do yet besides creep along the coast. If it happens to develop a name, they'll call it Barry.  Probably it will rain a lot.  So it's a good thing Sewerage and Water Board is on top of things this month.

Just before the June general board meeting, the S&WB cancelled all the July meetings, including the general board meeting. I've been watching to see if any will be rescheduled, but none have yet. The last time something like this happened was last September, following the implosion of Jade Brown-Russell's term as interim/acting executive director in mid-August when it was revealed she had approved raises for low-performing upper managers during a fiscal crisis. Her resignation/firing was followed by Admiral David Callahan taking over for two weeks followed by the first month of Ghassan Korban's term. But in the midst of all that turmoil, while all the September committee meetings were cancelled, the September general board meeting proceeded as scheduled, on the third Wednesday of the month.

This time around everything has been cancelled, including the general board meeting. No explanation has been forthcoming.

Oh okay well when they get back maybe there will be some good news. 

On the upside, any storminess associated with a tropical system could at least provide some short-term relief from the cyanobacteria blooms that have caused the closure of beaches along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, said Nancy Rabalais, a biologist with Louisiana State University who studies algae blooms.

“The cyanobacteria blooms like calm water, which we have had, and of course, the high load of Mississippi River nutrients,” Rabalais said. “Waves will likely dissipate the blooms, but they are so widespread, I would expect them to re-form afterwards. There are enough cells out there to restock a harmful algae bloom; the Mississippi River is at an all-time high, i.e., more nutrients; and the Bonnet Carre Spillway is not closing for maybe another week.”

Almost forgot the spillway was still open.  Hope we aren't looking at that oddball high river hurricane scenario everybody was freaked out about a month ago.  But if we are, at least we can rest assured the new levee system isn't quite obsolete... yet.

The Lake Pontchartrain & Vicinity, or East Bank levee system, and West Bank & Vicinity system have a combined 350 miles of levees, floodwalls and gates. The Corps says it and individual parish levee boards are lifting and armoring more than 76 miles of earthen levees, about a third of which -- 25 miles -- are already done.

An April 2, 2019, notice from the Corps in the Federal Register noted “weak soils, general subsidence, and the global incidence of sea level rise … will cause levees to require future lifts to sustain performance” and warns the levee system “will no longer provide (the promised) 1% level of risk reduction as early as 2023.”

That happens to be the year when the system needs to be recertified so property inside the levees can continue to qualify for mortgages and coverage under FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program.
“The fact that these levees won't be certifiable in four years is a travesty,” Van Heerden said.

Sen. Bill Cassidy said getting additional federal funding from Congress for the lifts is no slam dunk, but he’s confident it will happen. What’s more worrisome, he said, is the share of the costs the state of Louisiana is going to have to cover up-front, approximately $300 million.

“The state's already going to have a difficult time coming up with its portion of the rebuilt Katrina levees,” Cassidy said, referring to the state’s $1.7 billion share of the recently completed $14 billion project. “Now we're speaking of more state money going forward” to cover the levee lifts.

If they wanted to bring the system back in line with the "250 yr" protection originally authorized after Betsy it would cost around $45 billion. But nobody thinks that's even a remote possibility politically. So unless a drastic change occurs like some sort of national political revolution ushering in a "Green New Deal" with a robust water management and flood protection emphasis... well, I'd get used to the sinking feeling.