If 2016 taught us all one thing we should have known already, it is that making big bold predictions about what definitely is or is not going to happen is extremely stupid. We're out of that business. In 2020 we're going to focus, instead, on making tentative, hedged guesses at what might or might not happen. The way it works is, whenever we get a notion to loudly and pompously declare something about a future none of us can actually know, we will... go ahead and do that, yes, but first we will say, "I will be extremely surprised if..." things go differently. This should help.
But all of that is just there so I can say, I will be extremely surprised if Joe Biden actually becomes the Democratic nominee. He is a terrible candidate and there is just too much crap under the bridge.
And, sure, people will look at the crap under the bridge and say, "but Trump won and lookit...." But GOP primaries and Dem primaries be different. Crap effects candidacies differently in one than in the other.
And, sure, also, people will look at the establishment Dem stalwarts climbing aboard Bidens crapship now and say this makes the crapship unsinkable. But it doesn't. They're not there so much for Biden as they are for each other. Once he sinks, they'll all cling to one another like a floating ball of fire ants and come together on board whichever non-Bernie/Warren boat is still afloat. Whoever that candidate is will be the nominee. Or, at least, I will be extremely surprised if it isn't.
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