No one knows who will win Michigan tonight, but the fact that it will be incredibly close has weakened Romney’s campaign by underscoring his enduring problems connecting with working class and evangelical voters. This was supposed to be an easy state for Romney, who took it by ten points in 2008’s primary and has outspent Santorum there this time by 2 to 1. Even headlines like Romney barely wins home state will not be doing him any favors. In the same way, as both Republicans and Democrats have commented, Rick Santorum may lose Michigan, but in a sense he’s already won by coming this close.
I expect Mitt will eke out a "win" tonight but it's going to be an embarrassing one. But beyond that there are many reasons to believe that Santorum would make a stronger challenger to Obama should he manage to gain the GOP nomination. He won't be the nominee but it won't be because he's any less "electable."
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