The Saltwater Decade

On the bright side, we're all cooking the most lovely pasta these days. 

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said Friday that it will build an underwater sill to keep saltwater from moving up the Mississippi River, the fourth-straight year in which the structure has been needed to protect upriver water systems. 

The barrier will be constructed near Myrtle Grove in Plaquemines Parish. Due to a deepening drought, the Mississippi's flow rate has fallen and that is allowing saltwater from the Gulf of Mexico to travel north.

The Corps has built the sill every year since 2022. Prior to that year, the agency had only built a sill in the river three times: in 1988, 1999, and 2022.

It's afraid

 The salt water wedge is backing away. 

The Mississippi River saltwater wedge threatening New Orleans-area water supplies has retreated more than five miles, marking another positive development after the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers announced last week that the salt water creeping upriver wouldn’t arrive at local intakes until weeks after initial projections, if at all.

The wedge was at river mile 63.9 as of Monday, according to information available on the Corps website. It had reached River Mile 69.4, or about six miles south of Belle Chasse, as of Oct. 2.

No idea what happened. Maybe the rent was too damn high. 

The boats must flow

There are priorities here that simply will not be questioned.  The matter of whether or not anybody can live in the city takes a very far back seat to the matter of how much profit can be sucked out of it.  Can you afford the rent/mortgage/insurance? Nobody cares about that compared to how much houses are flipping for in the neighborhood. Do your kids have a good school? Nobody cares about that compared to how much can be grifted away by private charter operators? Are you safe from floods? From poisons in your air and water? Nobody cares about that compared to how much oil and gas can be extracted and refined and sold into global markets. Is there a reliable source of fresh water nearby? Nobody cares about compared to... 

The Army Corps of Engineers has known for decades that its continual efforts to deepen the Mississippi River for bigger ships would eventually trigger the saltwater crisis that has now gripped the New Orleans area for weeks.

“This is certainly something that everybody knew was going to happen,” said Cecil Soileau, a retired Corps engineer who warned in a 1990 report that dredging the lower river would threaten the region’s drinking water.

Gotta have the boats.  Recall, also, the last big channel we dug for the boats also killed the city in 2005.  People are disposable. The boats, the oil, the money; that's what matters.

Very accurate leaning. The most accurate leaning. More and more people are saying this

 It turns out we've got plenty time left. 

A new forecast for saltwater intrusion moving up the Mississippi River has surprisingly bought lots more time for the New Orleans area — and raised the possibility that most of the city and Jefferson Parish could be spared from the threat altogether.

The change in forecast had to do with factors related to the river’s flow, work by the Army Corps of Engineers to elevate a sill and the Mississippi’s depth at the salt water’s current location.

The cone of uncertainty for the arrival of this wedge must be pretty wide. Who even knows the correct speed of salt anyway?  Anyway, the wedge isn't coming as quickly as they thought.  There's a bunch of reasons listed for that in this article. The river didn't lose as much flow as they thought it would. The salt is also sinking into a "pocket" in the riverbed near Belle Chase. Possibly a tandem float ran into a tree. I don't know. 

But it does change the plans a bit. Maybe by a $250 million bit, in fact. 

On top of that, based on modelling through November, the Corps now thinks the leading toe of the salt water — at the bottom of the river — could stop somewhere between river mile 112-113, or in the River Ridge-Kenner area.

If that does occur, the toe will not have reached far enough to cause salinity on the surface of the river at the locations of the West Jefferson plant in Marrero, New Orleans’ Carrollton plant for its east bank and the East Jefferson plant.

As a result, chloride levels in drinking water would be expected to remain below the 250 parts per million threshold for those plants. Surface water tends not to exceed that standard until the toe advances 15 to 25 miles upriver from it, given the wedge shape of the intrusion.

New Orleans may be able to avoid having to build an emergency pipeline to dilute the salt water at an estimated cost of between $150 million and $250 million. The Corps cautions, however, that forecasts could very well change. It now plans to update its forecasts for the public every Thursday.

That's quite a difference from just a few days ago when it looked like the pipeline wouldn't even make it on time. A similar effort in Jefferson Parish appeared to be moving faster which led everyone to begin making the usual jokes/trolls about comparative governmental efficiency.  Little did they know Orleans was "leading the way," the entire time. 

When it comes to where Orleans parish stands currently in its effort to mitigate the saltwater intrusion, when compared to neighboring parishes, Cantrell says the parish is ‘leading the way’.

“I'm saying don't believe the hype. The city of New Orleans, Sewerage and Water Board, we're leading in this capacity, or we're getting the responses that were due,” she said.

“Again, at the federal level. I've been always leaning in, always attached to the briefings, always advocating picking up the phone and calling myself so no asks have been done by anybody else. First, but me. But of course, echo, you continue to ask. And you continue to serve, circle the wagons to demonstrate why the solution is a collaborative one, that there's buy-in across the board, that we can actually get it done, that we have the talent to get it done. And we need the resources the federal government is listening, and the state is listening.”

Always leaning in, yes. That's what you have to do when you serve, circle the wagons.  But then we found out it is just as important to lean in with accuracy. 

"So, make no mistake about it, the city of New Orleans is not behind anybody, or anyone. The city of New Orleans is leading in this capacity. You know, regardless of what you hear," she said.

But not long after she said that, Jefferson Parish began construction on their West Bank pipeline. Meanwhile, Orleans is still nailing down contractors. Usually, the city's procurement process can take months. When asked if they were expediting the process, she said the city is moving ahead.

"So again, working aggressively every day. The contract and procurement process has started, in short order will be completed, because the time is now. We all understand that. And everyone is lean, leaning in with urgency, but also wanting to lean in with accuracy," Mayor Cantrell said.

On second thought, maybe the thing that's actually holding the wedge back is the great wall of sound that happens whenever the mayor speaks.  Whatever it is, it's working. Keep doing that.

Tick tock

For those of us reaching a certain age, the idea of bending all of reality to run on Sewerage and Water Board time does sound nice.  But I don't think it works that way.

NEW ORLEANS — According to the latest projections, Orleans and Jefferson Parish water intakes on the Mississippi are expected to have saltwater impacts by mid to late October. 

The saltwater wedge that now threatens the drinking water supply for nearly a million residents has reached Jesuit Bend about 20 miles south of New Orleans. 

Area leaders say a 10 to 12-mile-long pipeline will be needed to deliver fresh water from upstream, north of Kenner. 

“To be able to end up with an intake at that location and pump and pipe that downstream into our intakes and as well as Jefferson Parish’s does remain our most viable option,” SWBNO Deputy Superintendent Steve Nelson told the city council on Wednesday. 

 It is expected to cost up to $200 million to build the pipeline. 

 But as of Friday GOHSEP, the Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness had not received a detailed pipeline plan or a formal request for state funding from the Sewerage and Water Board. 

According to the Army Corps of Engineers, city leaders also still haven’t applied for the necessary environmental permits to build the pipeline. 

Look, I get it. I hate deadlines too.  Never been one to meet most of the ones that applied to me alone.  But when it affects hundreds of thousands of other people... 

 Update: The two minute offense is cranking up! 

NEW ORLEANS — The governor's office has received and approved a plan to combat the saltwater intrusion in Southeast Louisiana, state officials said on Saturday. 

More details on the specifics of the plan, approved Friday night, are expected to be released by officials by the Sewerage and Water Board of New Orleans as the project moves forward. 

"The corps and the state received their proposed solution and didn't have any issues with SWBNO pursuing the procurement process," Officials in the Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness told Eyewitness News on Saturday.  

However, the plan still requires the USACE to sign off on the environmental permits. 

 Plenty time left?

What do people need? What should people do?

In one regard, we're getting a lot of information about the salt water. We know roughly when it will get to each intake. We know it will be as long as three months before it is gone. What we aren't getting enough information about is what can/should be done about it and, more specifically, who should be doing what thing. 

For instance, it's become clear that, although we don't know the severity of the issue, there's going to be a problem with contamination through corroded pipes. There's going to be a problem with lead.

The city has incomplete and unreliable information about its 1,500-mile water pipe system. How much of it is encased in lead is unknown.

That’s “the million-dollar question,” said Adrienne Katner, a drinking water researcher with the Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center in New Orleans. “We have no idea how many lead pipes remain in the city, but in my field research it was rare for me to find a home without a lead service line.”

About 48 percent of the New Orleans water system was installed before 1940, making many pipes more than 80 years old. Lead was a common pipe material until the U.S. banned it in 1986.

It’s safe to assume the water from any faucet in the city has come into contact with lead, Murphy said.

“We’re a very old city, and we still have lead in everything from our distribution system to the feeder lines to individual homes,” he said.

About 88 percent of nearly 400 homes tested on the East Bank had lead in their water, according to a 2018 study by LSU. While lead levels were generally lower compared to the EPA's action level of 15 parts per billion, many health officials stress that there is no safe level of lead.

That sounds like a critical vulnerability to a citywide public utility. How do we fix that? Who is responsible for fixing that?  Nobody knows!  Some of these articles are beginning to suggest that each of us is just on our own to identify and purchase the appropriate expensive equipment.  

Luckily, if it's right for you, systems that work and won't break the bank are available for homes, and run about $200 and can be installed under a single sink.

These work through reverse osmosis, where a semipermeable membrane separates salt from water, Scientific American reported. Systems are available for whole homes, as well, but start at $1,000.

Reverse osmosis is the only way to remove man-made chemicals called PFAS that have been linked to health hazards. Some systems can also remove lead, in addition to bacteria commonly found in water.

Depends on whose bank we're thinking about breaking here, but for a lot of people, $200 is a lot of money to spend on something that *might* help.  If people need filters just to have safe water during an emergency then FEMA (the agency responsible for handling emergencies) or S&WB (the agency responsible for delivering safe drinking water) should probably get them for people. 

Of course we don't know if that's exactly the thing that should be done. (Better figure it out soon, though!) But if it is, then that's who should do it. 

 

Emergency pipeline

Don't panic. It turns out the thing we kept saying wouldn't be a problem is a bigger problem than we thought. But it's okay. We're just taking extreme emergency measures around you as you go about your day. 

Water barges will be insufficient to deal with salt intrusion at New Orleans' Carrolton plant and for the east bank of Jefferson Parish and construction of a pipeline to deliver water from further upstream is being looked at, officials said Wednesday.

Cost estimates for such an effort are currently between $100 million and $250 million and federal funding is being sought, New Orleans Sewerage & Water Board officials told a City Council committee meeting.

Article doesn't say a whole lot about logistics. But they do make it sound like the "temporary" pipeline can be built in the short time between now and when the salt water gets here to be of use. Which is sort of a surprise given the usual speed at which infrastructure happens around here.  

Anyway they also say that the pipeline can, in the future, become a "permanent solution" to salt water intrusion. This implies what everyone already knows; that this is likely to become a regular problem as the effects of climate change progress. It causes one to wonder how long the pipeline plan has been on the shelf. More to the point, why did they wait until the last minute to deploy a known solution to a known problem? 

Update:  Oh well maybe it won't be built in time after all.  

Contractors are offering assurances that the work could be completed despite the short timeframe, but officials are preparing for the possibility of making bottled water available if there is a gap. The city is also looking at water conservation methods, Arnold said.

That is very exciting! Also that says once it's here the salt water will probably be around for 3 months or so.  As usual, be ready to hunker down. 

Upperdate:  Ah and we have visual confirmation that operation pipeline is already underway 

Confirmed: temporary @swbneworleans water intake station for NOLA and JP being constructed on S&WB-owned land at IMTT playground on Anthony St. in St. Rose. Implying the Corps believes the salt wedge won't make it there. https://t.co/yw65r7r2iy

— Matt McBride (@Matthew67052126) September 27, 2023

Okay well what is the plan, though?

We get lots of quotes to the effect that "local officials are preparing for impacts" from the salt water.  Not a lot of information about what they plan to do.  Or even what they recommend that you do. Besides, just, be aware and prepare or something.  

Of course there are things that could have been done ages ago to prepare our vulnerable water utility to handle this very predictable scenario. But one thing we've learned about disaster recovery vs disaster mitigation is that the emergency no bid contracts that come with the latter tend to be better opportunities for the important people to profit. So, really, this is just the market at work.  As for you, personally, well, look, there's still time to prepare!

While there’s still time to prepare, the clock is now ticking for local residents and businesses.

“A little worried for sure. Especially with the holidays coming up cause not only do we have to deal with that, but we have to deal with the water possibly being contaminated with a bunch of salt water and so that’s going to be a big issue for us,” Debarbieris said.

Ok. How, though?  How do we prepare. Besides just panic buying water if we can find it?  Doesn't matter. What matters is you internalize the idea that whatever happens is somehow your fault for not preparing enough. That's always the way with this stuff. It's definitely part of the model for climate change response going forward. So get used to that.