Welp

Here are some headlines from the last several hours regarding now Tropical Depression Karen.

Area returns to normal as T.S. Karen weakens

Karen, sapped and waning, sinks to tropical depression status

Frail and stuck, Tropical Storm Karen lingers in Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Karen becoming a shoo-shoo, judging from 4 p.m. update

You can see just how ominous the gathering threat had been all evening.   And so now, here we have my favorite.

About 100 without power in Algiers and Mid-City

Entergy New Orleans utility crews are working to restore electricity after power outages in Mid-City and Algiers left about 100 customers in the dark Saturday afternoon as some rain and wind from Tropical Storm Karen began to move ashore.

Entergy doesn't say whehter the outage is related to the weather at all.  But they did send some spokespersons to a number of pre-storm press conferences to remind us all just how extra prepared they were for whatever might happen.  That turned out to be something of a "shoo-shoo."

The slowing of the roll

That's a satellite image of what was left of Karen as of about 11 AM today. You can see the center of circulation has moved a good bit farther west than had been predicted.  The latest track this afternoon has it coming much closer to us now.  However, as the center shifted west, it seems to have left most of its punch behind.

The next aircraft missions into Karen this afternoon will help determine if the cyclone has weakened to a depression. The environment remains unfavorable for intensification and most of the guidance shows gradual weakening. The new NHC forecast shows the system weakening to a depression in 24 hours. There is little difference in impacts between a 30-kt depression and a 35-kt tropical storm...and tropical storm force gusts could easily occur in convective bands. Karen should dissipate or be absorbed by a cold front shortly after 48 hours.

Jim Cantore is sad.

#TSKaren remains a convectionless gale  center that hardly deserves TS status.  Not expecting much at this time: http://t.co/x4HeJX4FWP
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) October 5, 2013

By the way, I'm pretty sure Convectionless Gale Center is playing this weekend at Lost Love Lounge. They do a quiet synth-driven electric emo type thing.  So if you can't make it out to Gretna Fest there's that.

Meanwhile, the Mayor and pals held another press conference.

As the day progresses, Landrieu said, residents could be lulled into a false sense of security because of the lack of any noticeable effects from tropical weather. But, he noted, problems can often come after the storm or when people let down their guard.

“I myself have witnessed in the last day and a half a (higher) level of anxiety.” Landrieu said. “I would ask everybody just to slow their roll for the next 24 to 36 hours. It’s gonna be OK.”

Yesterday, the mayor stressed that we were all "leaning forward" which sounds like a thing that might actually quicken one's roll but I'm not gymnast so what do I know?  Anyway we're slowing it down now.

And  so is Karen.

Tropical Storm Karen has stalled in the Gulf of Mexico 130 miles south of Morgan City, but the National Hurricane Center still expects the system to move near or over portions of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Sunday. 

 

Octobercane

So these are kind of unusual but they do happen.



When I was a kid these were actually pretty great. Rare and not usually very threatening, they usually managed to give us a few days off from school without exacting much grief in exchange.  Also there's the thrill of watching the race against time as the seasons collide.

If it moves closer to the LA coastline before pushing east, we may be looking at quite a wet weekend. If it moves farther east, our weather would be fairly quiet and we may only have a few passing showers. Unfortunately there is a lot of uncertainty with the timing of the front and how far north the system will get, so we can only watch it for now.

Don't feel too confident betting on an early October cold front, though.