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Showing posts with label Francine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Francine. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Whoops!

 Shot (September 10)

New Orleans Sewerage & Water Board Director Ghassan Korban said Tuesday the city’s pumping and drainage system is in a “good place” ahead of Francine.

Ninety of 99 drainage pumps are working across its 24 pumping stations, he said, and the city has 70 megawatts available to power its drainage pumps, above the 44 needed to run the system at peak demand.

Korban said 70 megawatts “is probably one of the highest numbers we've seen in a long, long time ... Today, this is the best that we can all really count on.”

Chaser (September 11)

The large generators the Sewerage and Water Board uses to supplement its turbines and provide power to its drainage system went offline for about 15 minutes late Wednesday as Francine battered New Orleans, leading to widespread flooding.

Canals were high in Hollygrove, Lakeview, Gentilly, and New Orleans at 10 p.m., and over 30 locations in the city were flooded, according to Streetwise NOLA.

Nobody could have predicted... 

 



We'll know more tomorrow. But tonight there is widespread street flooding both in Orleans and Jefferson Parishes. Right now I'm listening to Helena Moreno tell Channel 4 that Sewerage and Water Board had problems with the EMD generators and that it lost Entergy power a couple of times during the night.  She has used the phrase "whack-a-mole" several times.  She says there are Lakeview and Gentilly residents reporting flooding where there hasn't previously been flooding. 

Anyway, we'll see about all that later. Meanwhile, just keep in mind that Francine ended up being, basically, a direct hit on New Orleans. Here is a picture of the eyewall approaching a little after 7:30.  We're actually lucky that it was already being torn apart by wind shear at this point. If this had been a major hurricane there could have been catastrophic damage. 

Francine eyewall

 

As it stands, the damage looks to have been significantly annoying at the very least. (Approximately 350,000 without power, for example.)   Anyway, we'll know more about all that later.  One thing we can't say at this point is that we're in an especially "good place."

Monday, September 09, 2024

Not ideal

 Old Francine

Tropical Storm Francine has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to further develop into a hurricane and impact Louisiana later this week, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Monday morning. 

The storm is expected to make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday evening as a Category 1 storm, though forecasters say there is a bit of uncertainty as to Francine's exact track.

As of 1 p.m., Francine had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. The storm is expected to turn north-northwestward over the next day, turn more east and intensify before making landfall on the Gulf Coast as a hurricane.

Cat 1 predicted as of this afternoon but some of the weatherfolk are concerned at the accelerated pace of its organization. 


That isn't great news given the path of the storm.  Drawing a bullseye bead on Lafayette is not great. Also it places SE Louisiana's highly vulnerable coastal marshes and heavy petro-chemical infrastructure on the "bad side" of the storm. If the intensity forecast gets any greater than it is this would be a very bad track.


Francine Path Sept 9 

 Anyway, let's hope this reasoning holds up

In a forecast discussion issued Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center in Miami warned that models are showing a heightened possibility of rapid intensification Tuesday through Wednesday. Then, after the period of intensification, high vertical wind shear could cause the storms intensity to plateau before it makes landfall on Wednesday, according to the NHC.

Both those predictions influenced the NHC's forecast that the storm will hit Louisiana with Category 1 winds.

In addition to the shear, the storm is expected to pull in dry air from Texas, which could serve to as another check on the intensification process, Louisiana State Climatologist Jay Grymes said.

Together, those two factors may prevent Francine from becoming a monster storm.

"I wouldn’t say its not on the table, but it seems to be fairly unlikely," Grymes said, though he cautioned that the storm will still bring dangerous conditions that residents need to prepare for.