-->

Thursday, April 14, 2022

Maybe somebody should do something?

The public got too good a handle on what case numbers, hospitalizations, and percent positives meant so they had to shuffle the metrics around. Now they're doing this.  

The level of coronavirus found in two New Orleans wastewater sites rose nearly 700% over the last two weeks, according to data reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. While virus levels in Louisiana remain low, the recent data has infectious disease experts on alert after weeks of declining cases and loosening restrictions. 

We’re in a little bit of a fog right now, but certainly wastewater suggests SARS-CoV-2 is definitely here and it does seem to be – at best we can tell – increasing,” said Susan Hassig, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Tulane University.

700 percent sounds like a lot. But what does it mean, really? See the thing is you aren't used to it yet so you don't know. It's "a little bit of a fog."  One wonders if that isn't the point a little bit. 

Although wastewater sampling has been used since the early days of the pandemic, it has emerged as an early warning system relied on by the federal government as part as a pathway to a more normal life in recent months. Samples from the Sewerage and Water Board's two wastewater treatment sites on the east and west banks are collected daily and sent to the CDC. About 65% of the nearly 450 wastewater sites across the country have recorded an increase in COVID levels over the last two weeks. More collection sites from Louisiana are planned, according to officials from the Louisiana Department of Health.

"Has emerged as a pathway to a more normal life..." has to mean they chose this as a way to keep people from knowing what to think about COVID anymore, right? That's the "pathway" that was "emerged" on purpose. What does it mean? Well it "depends" on a bunch of stuff.

Not every increase recorded by the CDC can be interpreted as a certain sign of an upcoming surge, said Aaron Bivins, co-founder of the COVID-19 Wastewater-based Epidemiology Collaborative and assistant professor with LSU's Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. The significance of a percentage increase depends on the baseline from the prior week, and Louisiana’s increases still remain below the threshold of a 1,000% increase that Bivins would consider alarming when virus levels are low.

Still, “my antennae are up,” said Bivins. “This change in trend is definitely concerning.”

So... anybody's guess. It's "definitely concerning," though. Should someone do something?  Or just be concerned.   Although, probably not more than that until after the hotels and airbnbs make their Jazzfest money. Afterward, they will send the mayor out to yell at us or something.

No comments: