"The forecast could change in the coming days"

Weather people. What do they even know?

Carnival season kicks into high gear this weekend, with more than two dozen parades set to roll in the New Orleans area. So the big question is: will the weather cooperate?

According to the National Weather Service, the first half of the week should stay dry in New Orleans, but a cold front moving into the area on Thursday could bring rain back into the forecast for the weekend. On Friday, showers are more likely early in the day, with a break in rain chances possible late Friday and Saturday, the National Weather Service said. However, moisture is expected to return again on Saturday night into Sunday. On Monday morning, the Weather Service said that Sunday will bring the biggest chance of rain, with showers likely during the day.

Highs on each day will range in the upper 50s to low 60s, the Weather Service said.

The forecast could change in the coming days.

The forecast can certainly change.  We learned this Saturday night when, through what we can only assume was spiritual intervention, a day of thunderstorms and "flash flood warnings" gave way to balmy temperatures and a light fog.  Suddenly, improbably, there it was; the ideal atmosphere for a parade in the Quarter.



We should have known it would happen this way.  There's no way the same universe that allowed Stefon Diggs to take a playoff win away from the Saints was also going to rain out Krewe Du Vieux during the Tricentennial Mardi Gras. This is merely an absurd existence we are living through, not a deliberately cruel one. It's important to remember that.



To help celebrate the city's 300th, KDV enlisted geographer, New Orleans know-it-all dude (and one time Rising Tide keynote speaker) Richard Campanella as its King.  Here he is trying to throw to the balconies.



For his latest NOLA.com column, Campanella published a "virtual tour" of the parade route. If you're reading this right now, you probably know KDV pretty well. But, for the sake of covering all of our bases, here is Campanella's introductory description from that article.

Krewe du Vieux, which rolls Saturday, Jan. 27, at 6:30 p.m., is best known for its ribald satire of public figures and current events. But in its structural form and route geography (small mule-drawn floats on old, narrow streets packed with revelers), the parade is something of a throwback to 19th-century Carnival.

The KDV format and ethos is among the purest exemplars of the creative disorder and subversion of social and political norms that is central to the spirit of Carnival. Predictably, this spirit is always in tension with the established social and political hierarchy which seeks to assert itself in various ways during the season as well.  Sometimes this tension contributes to the pageant. For example, this is the time when local blue bloods present their debutantes to society. To do this, they style themselves as royalty presiding over elaborate balls where the city's elite are expected to literally line up and bow to them to the undying amusement of everyone.

There are also ways in which the exertion of elite privilege detracts from the celebration.  Think about the discrepancy in parade fees charged to neighborhood level parading groups vs. what the larger, wealthier krewes are expected to pay. Or the present effort to limit the number of individual bands and marching groups who appear in parades. Here, by the way, is a photo of the balcony Campanella was throwing to in the previous one.  It's a little blurry but the sign says, "Marching Clubs Matter."



And these are only a few of the  thousand ways the more organic aspects of Carnival tend to be repressed by the city's bias toward the tourism industry and the security state.

For Carnival season, city cameras are also being installed along the Uptown, Mid-City and West Bank parade routes, Miller said. Those cameras may be moved later to other locations, he said.

In total, there will be about 70 cameras watching the 8th District, which includes the French Quarter and Central Business District, and about a dozen locations with cameras along the parade routes, Miller said.

The flashing lights on the new cameras are intended to make sure the devices are visible to residents who have requested cameras in their neighborhoods and also to discourage crime in those areas, Miller said.

The lights haven’t gone smoothly at all locations.

I think the lights are actually flashing, "Be safe," in Morse code. But I will have to remember to check that later. In the meantime, someone needs to help me FOIA the tapes so we can finally make that #KreweOfChad nature documentary.  Mayor-Elect Cantrell says the cameras are, "better than I ever imagined" so I assume the picture quality is very good.

Speaking of LaToya, here's another terrific case of elite pressure working against the subversive Carnival instinct. It looks like incoming mayor's relationship with the business class folks who run the Krewe of Muses is crimping that parade's traditional aspiration toward satire.

The all-female Krewe of Muses is one of the Carnival organizations that use their parades to satirize and poke fun at politicians and other celebrities.

It appears, however, that the city's first woman mayor is getting a pass this year.

The group announced Friday that Mayor-elect LaToya Cantrell will in fact be the krewe's Honorary Muse for the 2018 parade. She will lead the procession on Feb. 8, riding in the "shoe float," a 17-foot-tall, fiber-optic-encrusted red pump.

This is dereliction of duty. At least come up with a way to make it fun for people. I mean, don't get me wrong, I am definitely now on a quest to catch a shoe from LaToya this year. But what if they came up with a way to make it more interesting.

For example, check out this float the St. Tammany Sheriff's Office rolled in the Krewe of Poseidon over the weekend. It is designed to collect beads from the crowd for the purpose of turning them over to a local charity for recycling.  You can "donate" your beads to the cause by throwing them at targets on the side of the truck. But, as an extra incentive for the crowd, a gigantic likeness of Sheriff Randy Smith is riding on the front of the float for people to throw at as well much the way attendees at Bacchus enjoy throwing back at King Kong. (By the way, Bacchus is upping their ape game this year, it seems.)

But since the Muses have an actual live LaToya Cantrell available, it seems like they've missed an opportunity to do some fundraising themselves.  How much trouble would it have been to put LaToya on the Bathing Muses float rigged up as a dunking booth?  Not a single strand of beads would have found its way into a storm drain that night.  Oh well. Nothing is guaranteed to go perfectly. Not even the weather.