This ain't Columbus Day

You can stop that after 40 seconds if you want to. [YOU DON'T HAVE TO NOW. I FIXED IT] But vote.. you know... if you want to.

Here are some Election Day links for you.

Voter suppression is still very much in style.

The Crosscheck list of suspected double voters has been compiled by matching names from roughly 110 million voter records from participating states. Interstate Crosscheck is the pet project of Kansas’ controversial Republican secretary of state, Kris Kobach, known for his crusade against voter fraud.

The three states’ lists are heavily weighted with names such as Jackson, Garcia, Patel and Kim — ones common among minorities, who vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Indeed, fully 1 in 7 African-Americans in those 27 states, plus the state of Washington (which enrolled in Crosscheck but has decided not to utilize the results), are listed as under suspicion of having voted twice. This also applies to 1 in 8 Asian-Americans and 1 in 8 Hispanic voters. White voters too — 1 in 11 — are at risk of having their names scrubbed from the voter rolls, though not as vulnerable as minorities.

If even a fraction of those names are blocked from voting or purged from voter rolls, it could alter the outcome of next week’s electoral battle for control of the U.S. Senate — and perhaps prove decisive in the 2016 presidential vote count.

What's the matter with Kansas now?

Of the various Kansas races, it is the Pat Roberts–Greg Orman Senate matchup that has captured the attention of poll-parsers and odds-makers from coast to coast, because it presents them with an alluring double uncertainty: Not only is the race itself too close to call, but if the independent Greg Orman wins, we don’t know which party he will line up with. In fact, we know remarkably little about Orman’s politics generally, because he didn’t come up by conventional partisan means; he moved sideways into public life after a successful career running a private equity firm. Over the years he has had dalliances with both R’s and D’s, and today he presents himself as an anti-politician, assailing (as he put it in a TV debate a few weeks ago) “partisans of both parties” who refuse to “roll up your sleeves [and] start solving problems.”

As races come down to the wire all over the country, it seems ever more possible that the fate of the Senate lies in the hands of this one unknown figure, who could conceivably deliver control of that august body to either side. The possibilities have beguiled the science-minded men of the consensus, who for weeks have speculated back and forth on this or that possible scenario, with the enigmatic Orman always hovering over the outcome.

Who is benefiting from the new age of unlimited money?

Republican dark money groups are outspending their Democratic counterparts by an incredible margin, according to data from the nonpartisan Sunlight Foundation.

During this cycle, conservative groups that do not disclose their donors have spent more than $94 million, while liberal dark money groups have spent more than $28 million.

Does that mean the Republicans will take the Senate?

Republicans have a 76.2% chance of winning a majority.

Whose fault is this?

Oh good lord. If the Democratic Party wants to know what's wrong with the Democratic Party it isn't the "professional left" or the "emoprogs" it's the institutional Democrats who run to press and whine like infants every time the Party looks like it's about to lose an election --- even if it was entirely predictable and is completely reversible 2 years later

But, of course, everyone will blame "the liberals."  Even though "the liberals" are more likely than anyone to turn out and vote for the terrible Democratic candidates who hate them. Worry instead about the voters you haven't reached. 

BILL MOYERS: This, to me, is this fundamental question facing Bernie Sanders. How do you get your message directly to those who need it most? And you know who they are. They're conservative working people, who don't realize that their party has been sold all these years to the financial and business interests that are rigging the rules against them. How do you reach those people?

BERNIE SANDERS: Well, believe me, I wish I had the magic answer. You're asking exactly the right question. There are parts of this country, Bill, where the only information people get is on radio. You got Rush Limbaugh. 95 percent of talk radio is extreme right wing. You got Fox Television, which does an extraordinary job of deflecting attention away from the real issues.
The idea that you have these working-class people who are voting for candidates who refuse to raise the minimum wage, who refuse to provide health care for their kids, who want to send their jobs to China, who want to give tax breaks to corporations, it blows my mind. And that is the issue that we have to figure out.

BILL MOYERS: But is there no way to make a concerted effort to reach out conservative working people, people who share, I think, a populous bias in behalf of government by, and for the people. Wouldn't you bolster your credentials as someone willing to really shake things up, get beyond this distracting tedium of left and right and horserace mentalities that you're asked about all the time on the radio. Is there a way to make a campaign out of that?

BERNIE SANDERS: This is something that I'm thinking about hard. When they ask Tea Party people, and I've seen some of the polls, do you think we should cut Social Security? You know what they say overwhelmingly? No. Should you cut Medicare? No. Tea Party working-class people will be shocked to know that the people who founded the Tea Party, the Koch brothers, want to eliminate Social Security, Medicare, the concept of minimum wage. In other words, the ideology of the Koch brothers, who put the initial money in to found the Tea Party, is very different from the average, working-class person. And you're saying how do we reach out to get to work in coalition with those folks is something that we have got to do.

Here is the important point about that.  It is 100% the Democrats' own fault. Democrats lose elections like this one because they defend a half good/half bad health care law when they should be pushing for a better one. Democrats lose elections like this one because they brag about having "saved" the corrupt financial industry at a time when they should be running against income inequality.

People are angry and pretty much hopeless.  The moment calls for insurrection. But the Democrats fail to deliver that.  Meanwhile, the Republicans offer a false version of it spiked with fear and ignorance.  Maybe you think you're morally superior or whatever.. but it's hard to blame voters for either choosing the latter out of spite or tuning out altogether.

The good news is, it probably doesn't even matter who controls Congress for the next 2 years.  They don't even do anything.  Here's an amusing John Oliver segment on state legislatures, where the real.. and often terrifying... action is these days.



So, you know, remember to buy local in the future.

To that end, today's ballot (preview your sample ballot here) is full of local stuff.  In Orleans Parish, there are three city charter changes, and seventy million judicial elections to contend with on top of the fourteen proposed state constitutional amendments.  You'll probably need help navigating that stuff.  Here are some links that will help with that.

The League of Women Voters publishes a guide to all candidates, amendments, and propositions here.

This year, The Lens, spent a great deal of time focusing on the judicial races. Here is their comprehensive guide to the candidates.

Jules Bentley wrote this amusing guide to every race in Orleans, Jefferson, and St. Bernard.  I don't necessarily agree with his recommendations, although I do admire the spirit in which he makes them.

PAR puts out, by far, the most useful of all the guides to the constitutional amendments. That document includes a detailed explanation of each along with the prevailing arguments for and against.

I tweeted out an..um.. alternate version of this explainer last night.  I've been asked to put that together in a list so sorry but here is that. 


Anyway... WHO IS GOING TO WIN?  Luckily, I know some of the answers to that too.

First of all, we have to make some Congresspersons. Obviously Cedric Richmond is well on his way to becoming District 2 Congressman For Life so there isn't much to say about that race.

This week, TPM named botth the LA-05 and LA-06 races among their list of "Six Most Interesting House Races To Watch"  Which is weird because the New York Times recently declared Louisiana politics officially uninteresting anymore.  They're probably both a little bit right.

For example, the 6th District race is absolutely nuts and pretty wide open to boot. If fate were to somehow deal us a Lenar Whitney vs Edwin Edwards runoff, it will be the sort of stuff we tell to our grandchildren.. or to Edwards' children, I guess.

Sadly this isn't going to happen. Instead, Edwards will end up in a runoff with one of the other 70 Republicans running. Judging from the bizarre run of last minute attacks against him, this will probably be Paul Dietzel But who knows?  Anyway whoever it is will beat Edwards.  So it's an interesting race but not a really interesting race.

Same thing in District 5 where the goddamned Duck Dynasty people are trying to see if they can just randomly name congressmen from now on.  Interesting because Vance McAllister won his first election running with the DD endorsement but also against Bobby Jindal's refusal to accept the Medicaid expansion. Now he's running against DD absent any issue that might actually matter to people this time around.  So it's interesting in that it might serve as a referendum on Duck Dynasty. But not for any other reason.

Anyway I think McAllister makes the runoff vs Jamie Mayo who is just kind of there as part of the furniture.

As for the local races, I don't think I can make a call on those. My guess is Sens and Marullo win.. which I'm sure will lead to much tooth gnashing.

Finally, I don't think the Louisiana race will determine the balance of power in the Senate.  The GOP path to victory looks like it comes via wins in Alaska, Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina tonight. Many people disagree with me! Especially about North Carolina but just you watch.

There's also a slight chance that Kansas Independent Greg Ormon finds himself elected President Of Everything but I don't think that's going to happen.

The upshot is Louisiana will have a runoff to decide its Senator and that runoff won't matter to anyone at all.  Which is fine because these candidates are terrible people. This is an actual transcript of their first debate I made in case you need evidence of this.  I guessed some numbers on this earlier.. where did I put.. oh here it is.

Mary: 45%
Cassidy: 42%
Maness: 10%
Other 3%

Anyway, have fun pushing the buttons out there today.