Two to three years

Feinberg figures we'll all be done with this in two to three years. And so he is compensating based on that figure.

He said the decision to grant twice a claimant's 2010 losses is based on research by his Gulf Coast Claims Facility staff, which determined that Gulf-related business activity will recover in two to three years, with a 30-percent recovery in 2011 and a full recovery in 2012.

He said the oyster beds will generally require a longer recovery period, thus supporting a payment of four times a harvester's 2010 loss.

Just doing the simple math, I conclude that the oyster beds will be fine in about 4 to 6 years then. It's really astonishing, given the precedent.

But mention the word Exxon to anyone here, and the idyll evaporates. Men break down in tears describing what they lost when 11 million gallons of crude oil spilled into Prince William Sound in 1989 from a grounded tanker named Exxon Valdez. Twenty-one years later, the herring that once signaled the start of the summer season are largely gone, rendering $300,000 permits worthless. Losses are tallied in divorces, suicides, repossessed boats, depleted college funds, friends who moved away.