Wednesday, August 04, 2010

Declaring victory

The advantage of having an official government estimate of the total oil spilled is now they can base some impressively precise looking statistics upon that estimate.

About 75 percent of the oil has either been captured, been burned off, evaporated or broken down in the Gulf, according to a report to be released Wednesday by scientists with the Interior Department and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"It was captured. It was skimmed. It was burned. It was contained. Mother Nature did her part," White House energy adviser Carol Browner said on NBC's "Today" show.

About 26 percent of the oil remains in the sea in the form of light surface sheen or tar balls, or has washed ashore, according to the report.


Yes, I know. It adds up to "about" 101 percent. Nevermind that. What is interesting is that they feel like they have a good handle on the amount of oil left out there even after it all vanished last week. About what percentage has been buried under the beaches?

Update: Interestingly enough, that passage in the AP story I quoted has already been edited to read
Nearly three-quarters of the oil - more than 152 million gallons - has been collected at the well by a temporary containment cap, been cleaned up or chemically dispersed, or naturally deteriorated, evaporated or dissolved, according to a report by the Interior Department and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"It was captured. It was skimmed. It was burned. It was contained. Mother Nature did her part," White House energy adviser Carol Browner said on NBC's "Today" show.

That leaves nearly 53 million gallons in the Gulf. The amount remaining - or washed up on the shore - is still nearly five times the size of the 11 million-gallon Exxon Valdez spill, which wreaked environmental havoc in Alaska in 1989.


I'm not a fan of AP re-writing their stuff post-publication like this. I suppose taking the percentages out leaves a less exact sounding estimate. But they're still pretty confident that they can tell us how much oil is out there even while they're telling us it all either disappeared or is dispersed out of sight. Strange

Upperdate: Regarding the Valdez comparisons, Cliff observes
I bet you the people in Alaska are really pissed off right now. The Exxon Valdez spill happened in 1989 and they are still cleaning up 21 years later. The Deepwater Horizon spill leaked for months and was supposed to be even bigger than the Exxon Valdez and yet magically the oil on the Gulf Coast appears to be disappearing in record time.


Maybe we should come back in 20 years and ask these oystermen if they still feel like they won the race.

Uppestdate: Good follow-up from WVUE where they really are on the ball these days. Thanks, Tom Benson!
Nichols State environmentalist Kerry St. Pe says there's no way to tell for sure how much oil came out of the well.

"It's an attempt to give the public credible information. So I think it should be viewed as an estimate. There are so many things that can happen," said St. Pe.

The federal scientist’s estimate 4.9 million barrels spilled into the Gulf but they admit that amount could fluctuate 10 percent in either direction.

St. Pe says under the circumstances the estimates are as good as it gets.

"There's no flow meter on that oil coming up so they have to estimate based on their observations," said St. Pe.

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