Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Specter's Gambit

Might not survive the 2010 backlash after all.

Update:

A lot of this can still get ironed out before election time. Maybe it's Specter's arrogance (or "cockiness") which has put him in a hole... but it also represents an opportunity for labor to get back in the game.

There's another angle here too. Labor is really licking its wounds over what appears to be the very steep climb EFCA faces in this Congress. And the Democratic establishment in Washington moved very quickly to crown Specter as the Democratic nominee. It would not surprise me if labor and affiliated organizations might not mind engaging in a amicable Specter-Sestak proxy battle with President Obama and the lords of the senate to make the point that as much as everything's great and everyone's pals, they've got their own independent bases of power and political muscle.


In the political script yet to be written, Obama and the Dems are due to lose political momentum in 2010 precisely because they have been too kind to the banks and too dismissive of labor. 2010 is going to be a populist backlash election. The Dems still have the option of capturing some of the anger for their own party's cause. This requires primarily two things in my opinion. 1) Breaking free of the death grip of the finance lobby. (Not likely to happen) and/or 2) Passing EFCA... which wasn't likely to happen before this opportunity arose. Exploiting a pressure point like Specter is a good way for labor to try to get back on the President's agenda... and offer him an opportunity to rescue himself.

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