People who vote?

One of the many tiresome narratives of this campaign I have quibbles with is the idea that the electorate has been radically changed by a flood of "new" and "young" voters. It's one of those many THE WHOLE WORLD IS SUDDENLY DIFFERENT theories that never seem to pan out the way the futurists or the cheerleading children expect. Frankly, I ain't buying it. Neither is Gallup.

Bottom Line

Gallup Poll daily tracking suggests that 18- to 29-year-olds are not nearly as likely as older voters to be registered to vote, to say they are thinking about the election, or to express strong intentions to vote. Thus, as of mid-October, there is not convincing evidence in the Gallup data that young voters will in fact vote at higher rates than in past elections. But even if things change over the next two weeks and many more young adults do become motivated to vote, turnout alone would do little to change the candidates' overall support, according to Gallup's likely voter models.

Gallup will continue to monitor the responses of 18- to 29-year-olds to the likely voter questions between now and Election Day to see whether the current situation changes.