Predictions: Identity Politics 101

Greg Peters:

By request, The Mitch Landrieu campaign's Nagin timeline. I'm no fan of the mayor, and think Mitch is a better choice, but y'all better beware of the backlash. People are starting to notice, and there's nothing a Louisianian likes more than proving to America just how independent he is, even if it means making the wrong choice.

Greg is right. And, just as importantly, David is right when he says

I recently heard C.Ray say that he can play finesse ball or he can throw elbows--after he had already thrown the first hard elbow. Mitch needs to realize that C Ray's elbows and the refs aren't calling him on it. Mitch needs to elbow back..

The Landrieu campaign has taken more elbows than it has delivered because it has failed to speak directly to the overriding theme of this election. That theme is not leadership, or flood control, or tax assessments. It is identity. Katrina has forced New Orleanians (a fiercely provincial lot to begin with) to confront fundamental issues of what it means to be a New Orleanian. Our very existence has been challenged and we have responded with predictable high emotion. This is the reason these kinds of T-shirts are selling so well. It's the reason I was so disturbed by Tennessee's confounding liquor laws. It's the reason Ashley is so angry. It's the reason so many of us have taken the gamble on coming home. It's also the reason anyone would spend all day on a bus from Atlanta or Houston just to vote in a municipal election.. but more on that later.

With a few days remaining before the election, we finally have some poll numbers.

NEW POLL: A poll released Tuesday by a pair of Tulane University researchers shows that Landrieu is sailing ahead of Nagin by 10 percentage points.

I don't buy it. And.. if you read the article, you'll see the T-P doesn't really buy it either. The T-P points out that this group of pollsters produced an "undecided" category before the primary that ended up going almost exclusively to Nagin. Ordinarily, late undecideds will swing to the challenger. This race is far from ordinary. I think Nagin is going to win and I think it won't even be as close as the conventional wisdom appears to indicate.

The day after the primary I stated that Landrieu was in a tight spot because Nagin had managed to steal the black vote away from him and stood to benefit from the return of his wealthy white backers who had strayed away to Couhig and Forman. With the exception of Forman's personal endorsement of Landrieu, this has largely come to pass. Landrieu will pick up some white support but not enough to put him over the top. The reason for this: white racial anxiety.

This was discussed ad-nauseum at YRHT last week. There is a built-in emotional antipathy toward Landrieu (and his father) among a significant portion of the white electorate. When pressed to explain their feelings, most of Landrieu's white detractors cry "corruption" but provide little supporting evidence for this assertion. Dangerblond, in fact, is offering $50.00 to any Anti-Mitcher who can substantiate such claims. I submit that the anti-Mitch sentiment stems largely from residual white resentment at Moon's desegregation of city government. It speaks directly to the identity issue for white New Orleanians who, to this day, believe their New Orleans began to crumble the day "those people" took over. Some whites will vote against Mitch because of their racially-based suspicion of the "Landrieu clan". Others will vote for Nagin because they know he will tend to favor developers in the fight over who ultimately is allowed to return. In other words, a significant portion of the white vote will go to the black candidate specifically out of racial animosity towards the black population. Meanwhile Nagin will continue to enjoy an overwhelming share of the black vote. The reason: Black racial anxiety.

When Nagin made his infamous "Chocolate City" speech he was, yes being his usual glib self, but also making a calculated political play. In an ugly way, Nagin pandered to the very real fears that forces were marshalling to reengineer the city's demographics by making it difficult for its poorer, blacker neighborhoods to rebuild. Nagin should know. He was, reportedly, a major player in that scheming. But Nagin's pandering has resonance with a serious identity issue for the black electorate because: 1) It speaks to a very real threat. And 2) Nagin is the only candidate who has (albeit dishonestly) spoken directly to this issue. The New Orleans Tribune's endorsement of Nagin reveals just how distorted the problem has become.

When Nagin made his statement about the demographic make-up and repopulation of the city, we heard the truth. New Orleans was a chocolate city. Nearly 70 percent of its population was African American and as it is reborn, its people must be able to return to their city. Now, make no mistake, Mayor Nagin, we heard you. And we will be watching to make sure you put the power and resources of your office behind that truth. Upon winning re-election, you have an obligation to fulfill. Your warm invitation cannot be reduced to idle political rhetoric.

All it took were the magic words "Chocolate City" springing from Nagin's lips to cause the Tribune to turn a blind eye toward his agenda or his bedfellows. The Tribune's endorsement, misguided or otherwise, can only be read as an impassioned plea to the black community to act against a threat to its identity. This call has been heard. While pollsters will tell you that the evaccuee vote is not large enough to dictate the outcome, I think its very existence, all those people on those buses, is indicative of the level of passion aroused among the electorate as a whole... and I don't think they're this motivated by.. oh.. say Arnold Fielkow. In my mind, all of this points to a Nagin juggernaut come Saturday.

The Landrieu campaign has been criminally weak and off point given the high stakes involved in the outcome. Mitch's pitch, that he is a more "effective leader" and less of a national embarrassment than Nagin, appeals mostly to middle-class white moderates and temperate liberals. These are people Mitch pretty much had at hello. Mitch has repeatedly taken what he believes is the "high road" in this campaign preferring to tout his "ability to get things done" rather than confront the threat of annihilation facing the city. Nagin's backers are wolves ready to rip apart what remains of the city's social and economic fabric and divide amongst themselves the spoils. Nagin's main strategy is race-based, dishonest and ugly. Any opponent worth his salt should be calling Nagin out on this. Instead Landrieu's attack strategy has consisted mainly of (to recycle a term) limply going after Nagin's post-Katrina leadership, which seems to be the one thing most voters are willing to give him a mulligan on. I mean... you know.. it was a major disaster, man.

Prediction: Mitch blew it big time and has no one to blame but himself. Nagin wins with 55% of the vote or greater.

Other Predictions

Council District A: A.B.B. died the day Palmisano endorsed Batt and started making those race-baiting "Midura wants a housing project in Lakeview" radio commercials. Game, set, match Batt.

Council District B: Just going on the daily street presence of her sign waving yuppie clones, I'd say Head is a comer... which means it will be closer than I thought but Pratt will take it.

Council District C: Palmer.

Council At-Large: Given Fielkow's status as an outsider with all the charisma of a robotic Mr. Rogers, I thought Clarkson had this locked up... but she seems to be flaking out a bit as of late. I still say she ekes it out.

That's all I got, folks. Remember to call your bookie before the polls open.