They've already got the Governor they want

John Neely Kennedy spent the past few months flogging one poll that suggested he might beat John Bel Edwards head to head.  Looks like he must have figured that was enough to prove his point.

U.S. Sen. John Kennedy has announced he won't run for governor next year, after toying with a run to unseat Gov. John Bel Edwards for months.

Kennedy, a Republican, said in a news release Monday morning that he wants to remain in the U.S. Senate, where he has served since 2017.

"I love being in the United States Senate," he said in a statement. "It is such an honor to represent the people of Louisiana in the United States Senate. Right now, that’s where I think I can do the most good."

John is going back to D.C. to.. uh... spend more time with his family, by which we mean his fans in the national political press.  We all love a good soundbite, after all.  Either that or he's been promised a committee chairmanship but there's no need pick just one reason. For example, we also have to consider the point that a lot of Republicans seem to be deciding they're fine the Governor they have now.

While Republicans are angling to find an opponent to challenge the reelection of the only Democratic governor in the Deep South, some of the GOP’s biggest names are aligning with Gov. John Bel Edwards. They include a former GOP gubernatorial candidate, two top aides to former Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal and several of the party’s A-List donors. Edwards faces reelection in October 2019.

“The governor was dealt a hard hand to play and he’s done a great job,” said Jay Blossman, of Mandeville. “If he was a far-left, screaming liberal, you’d have a problem … But he’s not. He’s willing to work (with) both sides.”

The former chairman of the Public Service Commission ran as a Republican for governor in 2003 and flirted with a run in 2007. He gave Edwards’ campaign the maximum $5,000 in December 2017. For Blossman, who Edwards appointed in June to the LSU Board of Supervisors, it doesn’t matter who else is in the race.

I like that Ballard includes the bit about Blossman owing his current position to John Bel. Incumbency always comes with a fair amount of patronage advantages. Which is a mild way of saying our system is built on legalized bribery and little else. Remove any question of justice or morality from politics and these contributions are strictly business.

When it comes to awarding contracts and setting regulatory policies, a Louisiana governor generally has more power than chief executives in other states. So, it behooves businessmen to adopt an outlook more practical than partisan when it comes to supporting a gubernatorial candidate, said G. Pearson Cross, a political scientist at the University of Louisiana Lafayette. And sometimes that means spreading contributions across several campaigns.

New Orleans banker and developer Joe Canizaro held an event for the governor in October but texted Thursday that “at this time I do not know who I am going to support.”

Craig Spohn, head of the Cyber Innovation Center in Bossier City, gave Edwards $5,000 but hasn’t made up his mind yet.

“It’s too early. The field hasn’t come into formation,” Spohn said.

All that matters to guys like Joe Canizaro is that whoever is Governor remembers who bought the canapes at the fundraiser when it comes time to decide what to do with the next Charity Hospital type project or who gets the next big sack of free Convention Center money.  When it comes to doling out favors to big money developers or polluters or security contractors  or just looking out for the interests of the right wing business lobby in general, John Bel is as reliable a Republican as anybody.

Of course there's still plenty money to spread around.  So, even if they aren't running an A-lister, the state GOP will still have plenty cash to pass out to ambitious young Republicans who want to pad their resumes staffing for vanity candidates like Eddie Rispone or, I guess, more likely at this point Ralph Abraham. Ralph is supposed to let us know what he's thinking on January 1st. Sharon Hewitt seems to be waiting for a higher power to decide for her.

.@SenJohnKennedy is a strong voice for LA & I’m grateful that he will continue to advocate for us in the #ussenate. I’m still strongly considering a run for Governor & continue to pray for God’s guidance on the best way to serve my community & help turnaround our great state.

— Sharon Hewitt (@sharonhewitt) December 3, 2018

Still, even though today's news seems pretty good for John Bel, he shouldn't just take reelection for granted.  Assuming Kennedy stays out and that Jeff Landry doesn't hop back in, the lack of a big name Republican really only guarantees a chaotic field. And 2019 might still be more chaotic in Louisiana than it seems from here.  Remember last week when Cameron Henry tried to scuttle the revenue estimate simply because oil prices do not always go up? What happens if he and the rest of the radicals controlling the state House decide to manufacture another budget crisis during an election year?  Or what if oil prices really do crash? 

Despite the above-mentioned advantages of incumbency, sitting Governors can and have been taken down during times of uncertainty.  Dave Treen (1983) and Buddy Roemer (1991) were knocked off during oil gluts and recessions. Edwin Edwards (1987) and Kathleen Blanco (2007) were felled or decided not to run in the wake of scandal and disaster.  A little bit of mischief goes a long way in Louisiana.  With no anointed Republican in the field, there could be plenty of room for mischief.

Theoretically this would be a terrific moment to throw a truly leftist candidate into the mix.  But no such person exists in Louisiana, nor does the infrastructure necessary to make such a campaign remotely viable.  So we'll have to content ourselves with watching the Republican B team struggle to get its act together. Even as their supporters tell us, in so many ways, that they already have the Governor they want.